Posted on October 10, 2017 by ADMIN

Arsenal Analysis – The underestimated importance of beating the “small” teams

The underestimated importance of beating the “small” teams by

I have been at Just Arsenal for some years now and keep seeing people disparage the value of beating small teams. It always like ‘should have scored more’, ‘was an ugly/lucky win’ ‘utd or city would have done the same/better’, etc.
There are 19 teams we play;

Top teams: 5; Man utd, Man city, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham

Rest; “Average teams”: 14

So there are 10 Top and 28 small matches. My logic is that Arsenal should compete at least once every 2 years which means between 84-87 pts.

My own algorithm to determine if we are on track with my expectations is:
Beats all Average teams home away means 28 wins = 84 pts plus 1 win or 3 draws against big teams and we have 87 pts.
For every pts lost against average teams we have to gain them against big teams.

For example this season its 4W 0D 1L against average teams and 0W 1D 1L against big teams. That means that at the moment we have lost 3 pts against average teams and gained 1 against big teams so current state is a deficit of 4 pts if we want 87 pts and this will remain so(if we don’t lose more pts against average teams) or worsen until we get 4 pts off big teams.
Short recap
Expectation
Against Average teams Against Top teams Total
Start of season 84 pts 3 pts 87 pts
Current state 81 pts 6 pts 87 pts
Expected 77 pts 10 pts 87 pts

Since it is impossible to beat every average teams, even Man United and City have lost pts against average teams. The table will change. So cherish every win against average teams and expect every win or draw against top team to help us compete and win the title. Beating top teams feels good and give us some bragging rights but beating average teams win leagues titles. Ask Liverpool fans about last season, they dominated top teams 5W 5D 0L and still finished 4th with 76 pts.

Hate every defeat especially against average teams and rivals but don’t hate when we win!

Ackshay K.

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17 thoughts on “Arsenal Analysis – The underestimated importance of beating the “small” teams

  1. gotanidea

    The problem is sometimes Arsenal slip against the poorer teams. I will not use small teams as the term, because Everton, Newcastle, Leicester and Southampton are not small clubs.

    Arsenal is supposed to dominate and control the tempo when playing against these poorer teams in the field. But most of the times they cannot do that, which means there is something really wrong the system.

    The change of formation and the recent consecutive wins against the poorer teams only masked the old problems that have never been addressed for more than ten years. The fans might not be able to identify these old issues, but the ex Arsenal players know the problems very well.

    I hope one day Wenger will listen to his ex players’ suggestions and makes Arsenal dominate the poorer teams again (like in the Invicibles era). Most of the times, it is better to take inputs from different people, to improve your achievement.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 6

  2. redmau5

    in theory its true, but stoke away , theres banana skins which we always struggle with
    no way will we win all away games against lower opposition, alotta draws few losses
    still think were destined for 6/7th

    where have all the usual suspects gone. this sites bit dead without them

    they given up?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 2

    1. McLovin

      Where are:

      – Budd
      – IamButtArsene
      – davidnz
      – Hafiz aka John Ibrahim
      – that Simon guy
      – NY_Gunner

      Hmm who else is gone?

      Rate this comment: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 2

    2. Ackshay

      “For every pts lost against average teams we have to gain them against big teams.”
      thats exactly my theory we will lose points against average team especially away, we have to earn them back.

      Rate this comment: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  3. Cheadle

    Some of my older comments will reveal my classification of the 20 EPL teams into “Top seven” (including Everton) and “Lucky 13” (all the others). In one particular comment I argued about the dangers of losing even a single match to a “Lucky 13” team, my theory was that you needed to compensate with 2 wins or at least four points from the Top 6.

    Basically I agree with you. You will never approach 80 points if you take a “Lucky 13” team lightly. in fact those are the title deciding matches!!

    If you are eviscerating the Lucky 13 one after the other, you can tighten up when you play a Top six team and wait for them to open up. Instead we often see Arsenal under too much pressure to get a result against a top 6 team with a better evisceration record than ours forcing us to open up, make mistakes and concede unnecessary goals.

    E.g. Stoke Loss —— led to High Pressure—- led to—- Liverpool loss. Compare that to Bournemouth Win —— Led to normal pressure—- led to—-Chelsea draw (Some even say we could have won)

    I may be wrong but did you notice Mourinho’s expression when the drew Stoke? that said everything!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 2

  4. tas

    don’t mater how you look at it above and below us we lost ground few years ago by not buying quality players at a reasonable price and now we have to pay treble then four years ago, and now that there is more talk of more TV revenue to come we have to buy now at today’s prices so not to pay higher in a year or two, like it or not EPL is fast becoming billionaires playground

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

  5. jon fox

    Too simplistic a theory, the solution of which is far more complicated than the theory proposed. Yes, of course a win, home and away against the so called 14 average teams(a term I don’t agree with BTW)would provide 84 points. But this is only a “pie in the sky” theory and no club has ever achieved this ambition, or is even likely too. In reality land, what we at Arsenal vitally need is to strengthen our ownership, CEO and manager, all of which will bring better and more committed players to our club. THIS LACK of proper running is the REAL PROBLEM we have and UNTIL that is cured nothing will ever change for the better. But it will change for the even worse. That is REALITY, not foolish “what if theoretical happenings”. If only more articles on here and those who post were REALISTS, instead of dreamers!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 5

    1. Ackshay

      dude this is not a foolish what if theory, if you could read and understand it evolves with every pts we lose against average teams( small or weak is a demeaning term, average is what they are), the more pts we need from big games.

      Rate this comment: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2

      1. jon fox

        Dude, (to use your own childish lingo, so that you can understand) you are merely repeating what the silly article said and have no fresh insights or comments of your own to add. What a shame you are so empty headed. Since I can “read and understand” I know exactly what the article said. I just happen to disagree with it, as is my right. Geddit, Fella?

        Rate this comment: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 3

  6. Who said Arsene can't do grime?

    Dude used an algorithm. The answer must be right

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

  7. ThirdManJW

    It’s not that we devalue beating the ‘smaller teams’, it’s just annoying how people use these type of victories as a barometer of progression/success. Our recent good run is a fine example of how many Arsenal fans are kidding themselves yet again.

    Apart from the Chelsea game, all of our recent victories have come against very easy opposition, and all were home fixtures, apart from BATE. Beating rubbish teams does NOT breed confidence, and does NOT mean our problems are over. It’s great that we’re winning again, but real momentum, and confidence will come from winning those tough fixtures. So far we’ve played three tough games, won none, lost twice, and scored zero goals. This is where our real problems lie every season, and it seems it’s the same old story so far this season, which is hardly surprising when you’ve got the same manager in charge that’s been responsible for same problems year after year.

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    1. Ackshay

      it is right but real thinking what were we expecting from our 3 away matches. 4 points would have been okay with us beating stoke and drawing and losing the other 2 tough away games. so basically the only glitch so far is stoke away which is an average team. these teams especially away have been our bogey teams. every team have them but our situation was made worse by playing all 3 one after the other and at the start of the season.

      Rate this comment: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

    2. jon fox

      Being , like you a realist, it is hardly surprising that the majority of dreamers and “what if merchants” have stupidly disliked your sensible post. I am thoroughly fed up with the huge majority on here who seem to think any criticism of the appalling way our club is run, by the cancerous owner, CEO and manager is wrong. These dreamers are the idiot ones and will keep getting the dross we have been getting for the last decade until they get real and call for change, like you and I want. But keep posting the truth and regard the dislikes , like I do too, as the stupidity of “wet behind the ears , know nothing armchair” fans, most of whom have never attended the Emirates and fewer still the old ground. In many polls of fans who actually attend, the vast majority want regime change from top to bottom. Rightly so!

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  8. Ivan

    We need to do well against ALL teams. The dominant teams of today beat the small teams and take their fair share of points off the big teams.
    Once upon a time we used to demolish poor teams and I would like us to be capable of doing so again.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

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