The underestimated importance of beating the “small” teams by
I have been at Just Arsenal for some years now and keep seeing people disparage the value of beating small teams. It always like ‘should have scored more’, ‘was an ugly/lucky win’ ‘utd or city would have done the same/better’, etc.
There are 19 teams we play;
Top teams: 5; Man utd, Man city, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham
Rest; “Average teams”: 14
So there are 10 Top and 28 small matches. My logic is that Arsenal should compete at least once every 2 years which means between 84-87 pts.
My own algorithm to determine if we are on track with my expectations is:
Beats all Average teams home away means 28 wins = 84 pts plus 1 win or 3 draws against big teams and we have 87 pts.
For every pts lost against average teams we have to gain them against big teams.
For example this season its 4W 0D 1L against average teams and 0W 1D 1L against big teams. That means that at the moment we have lost 3 pts against average teams and gained 1 against big teams so current state is a deficit of 4 pts if we want 87 pts and this will remain so(if we don’t lose more pts against average teams) or worsen until we get 4 pts off big teams.
Against Average teams Against Top teams Total
Start of season 84 pts 3 pts 87 pts
Current state 81 pts 6 pts 87 pts
Expected 77 pts 10 pts 87 pts
Since it is impossible to beat every average teams, even Man United and City have lost pts against average teams. The table will change. So cherish every win against average teams and expect every win or draw against top team to help us compete and win the title. Beating top teams feels good and give us some bragging rights but beating average teams win leagues titles. Ask Liverpool fans about last season, they dominated top teams 5W 5D 0L and still finished 4th with 76 pts.
Hate every defeat especially against average teams and rivals but don’t hate when we win!