Oddschecker analysis: Bettors backing Wenger to leave following his odds being slashed
Arsenal were humiliated yet again by Bayern Munich last night in the Champions League, increasing the support for the #WengerOut campaign. Recent defeats to Chelsea, Watford and Man City has increased the noise in the terraces calling for the French legend to be axed. It’s not the first time we’ve heard these Arsenal rumours but according to the bookmakers we need to take them seriously this time.
Immediately after last night’s defeat to the German Champions, Skybet, BetVictor, Winner and Betway all cut the odds of Wenger being the next Premier League manager to leave to 8/1. Making the Frenchman third favourite behind relegation candidates Claudio Ranieri and Aitor Karanka. It looks unlikely Arsenal will sack Wenger, but there’s always the possibility pride will take over and he leaves on his own accord. Betfair have stuck with 20/1 for Wenger to leave before any other EPL manager but we expect those odds to be cut very soon.
Before last night Wenger was 25/1 to be next manager to leave his post, but you only have to go back to the start of the month for the Frenchman to be priced at 66/1. The loss to Chelsea was the first nail in the coffin, as odds were slashed from 66/1 to 33/1 overnight. Since last night’s heavy defeat a huge 72% of bets placed on the next Premier League manager to leave market have been placed on Wenger.
The Favourite is Massimiliano Allegri. The current Juventus manager has won the Italian league/cup double in the last two years and came runner-up in the 2014-15 Champions League. The Juve manager was 10/1 to replace Wenger at the beginning of the month but has since shortened to 9/2.
Eddie Howe is another possible candidate. He’s got Premier League experience but lacks any knowledge of managing a big club like Arsenal. Howe divides opinion with Arsenal fans, a few love the idea of a young Englishman taking over, others worry it could be another David Moyes. Howe is 5/1, however one bookmaker had him as short as 2/1 at the end of January.
Thomas Tuchel is 10/1 with one bookmaker but is as short as 4/1 with another. The Dortmund head coach was a 33/1 chance just six days ago. Ex-Arsenal legend Patrick Vieira is as short as 8/1 with one bookmaker but remains a 12/1 fancy with another, Vieira was a 20/1 shot ten days ago. After last night’s 5-1 loss Diego Simone was cut to 12/1 to be the next Arsenal manager by Skybet, however remains 25/1 with Paddy Power.
According to an @Oddschecker twitter poll, Arsenal fans would favour a manager who has won major trophies in the past. Over 60% of people who answered the poll admitted they’d favour trophy winners over any other trait, which opens the door to Allegri or Simone. Just over 20% of Arsenal fans would rather have a young and ambitious manager, music to the ears of Eddie Howe. Under seven per cent of fans would like to see an ex-Arsenal take charge.
Just under 22% of bets placed on the next Arsenal manager market since the start of the season have been placed on the Bournemouth manager, Eddie Howe. 11% of bets have been on Simone, 9% on Allegri, 4% Joachim Low and 4% on Tuchel. As for ex-players, we’ve taken more bets on either Dennis Bergkamp or Thierry Henry to be the next manager compared to Vieira. Surprisingly, Piers Morgan, Gunnersaurus, Sir Alex Ferguson and Gary Neville have all had more support in the market compared to the likes of Marco Silva, Manuel Pellegrini and Didier Deschamps.
In the last month, we’ve seen Allegri account for 17% of bets in the market, Simone 12% and Howe slump to only 7%.
– Wenger cut to 8/1 to be next Premier League manager to leave
– 72% of bets placed on Arsene Wenger to be next Premier League manager to leave
– Allegri has been the most popular bet to replace Wenger in the last month
– Under 7% of Arsenal fans want an ex-player as manager
Who do you think is most likely to replace Wenger?