It is very easy for an Arsenal fan to predict an easy win for the Gunners in tomorrows match at Man United, but usually such predictions are based on what your heart says and not on any sort of algorithmic or statistical basis. So this morning I can see that most of the bookies are making Jose Mourinho’s side favourites to win the game, so I thought it would be a good idea to have an analysis purely on the form books.
So I was recommended a site called Odinbet.com, which is a football prediction service that summarises football data and statistics to give the user an overview of the likelihood of certain things happening in an upcoming game. The company’s state-of-the-art technology helps gamblers to predict the outcome of games by using maths and calculations based on previous performances.
So let’s look at what they came up with shall we? To start with I did the comparison based on the last 10 League games of both sides, which is most of this season. On that basis they predict Arsenal have a 50% chance of winning, with 20% for United, and 30% for the draw. That is completely different to the bookies odds!
But if you do the switch to United Home/Arsenal Away results, you get a completely different prediction, with a 40% chance of a draw, and 30% each for either a home win or away win. Considering Arsenal’s abysmal record at Old Trafford that would probably be an acceptable outcome for Wenger, and may even be worth a bet.
If you are a gambler, the Odinbet service also gives you probable outcomes on Both Teams To Score bets, Over And Under. In fact they give a 60% chance of there being more that 2.5 goals in the game, so if we go for a high-scoring draw, surely a little bet on a 2-2 correct score may be worth a tickle!
So that must be my prediction based purely on the Home/Away statistics, but as Arsenal are hot favourites on overall form. I am still going to predict a Gunners win lol.
Maybe it is better to use Odinbet for predicting good bets for games you are not emotionally involved in rather than an Arsenal game, but it looks like an interesting idea.
If you fancy signing up for a free trial with the Odinbet football predictions service then click this link to take you to the easy sign up page.