Posted on November 18, 2016 by ADMIN

Man United v Arsenal Prediction – Based purely on statistics

It is very easy for an Arsenal fan to predict an easy win for the Gunners in tomorrows match at Man United, but usually such predictions are based on what your heart says and not on any sort of algorithmic or statistical basis. So this morning I can see that most of the bookies are making Jose Mourinho’s side favourites to win the game, so I thought it would be a good idea to have an analysis purely on the form books.

So I was recommended a site called Odinbet.com, which is a football prediction service that summarises football data and statistics to give the user an overview of the likelihood of certain things happening in an upcoming game. The company’s state-of-the-art technology helps gamblers to predict the outcome of games by using maths and calculations based on previous performances.

So let’s look at what they came up with shall we? To start with I did the comparison based on the last 10 League games of both sides, which is most of this season. On that basis they predict Arsenal have a 50% chance of winning, with 20% for United, and 30% for the draw. That is completely different to the bookies odds!

But if you do the switch to United Home/Arsenal Away results, you get a completely different prediction, with a 40% chance of a draw, and 30% each for either a home win or away win. Considering Arsenal’s abysmal record at Old Trafford that would probably be an acceptable outcome for Wenger, and may even be worth a bet.

If you are a gambler, the Odinbet service also gives you probable outcomes on Both Teams To Score bets, Over And Under. In fact they give a 60% chance of there being more that 2.5 goals in the game, so if we go for a high-scoring draw, surely a little bet on a 2-2 correct score may be worth a tickle!

So that must be my prediction based purely on the Home/Away statistics, but as Arsenal are hot favourites on overall form. I am still going to predict a Gunners win lol.

Maybe it is better to use Odinbet for predicting good bets for games you are not emotionally involved in rather than an Arsenal game, but it looks like an interesting idea.

If you fancy signing up for a free trial with the Odinbet football predictions service then click this link to take you to the easy sign up page.

Good Luck!

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9 thoughts on “Man United v Arsenal Prediction – Based purely on statistics

  1. Alexis the Great

    I would take a 2-2 draw.
    Of course I’m rooting for Arsenal, but the head says that it is never easy for Arsenal at Old Trafford, or for Wenger against the bus conductor! We can get the real revenge back at the Emirates.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

    1. bran99

      true. though i wish the revenge was taken last season when we beat them 3-0 by 20 minutes. but we stopped there. if it was them, could repeat the 8-2 mauling once again.

      why do we tend to pull foot off gas when we are in a free flow momentum instead of grinding for more? even Man U fans are scared now that we could hand them a spectacular beating, they urged Man U to remove the tweet about the 8-2 score they handled us, coz they are scared we could do the same now they are in a bad run.

      Rate this comment: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    2. Wilshegz

      a draw is a bad as a loss now cos it ll only extend Mourinho’s unbeaten record against Wenger n would make us drop 2 more points, going 4point from the top

      Rate this comment: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  2. Simon_MrMac

    Big game-

    But I’m going for a 3 – 1 win.

    Were the better team, I don’t believe we can’t take the pressure any longer. Whilst we struggled previous seasons – were much more mentally tough now.

    COYG

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

  3. G-Rude

    You are right.
    We are stronger, and Mourinho doesn’t seem to have got his team playing for him at all.
    He certainly is not using a charm offensibve!
    Let’s pour more misery on him and put United far behind in the title race,

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  4. ozildatrequartista

    Am going for a 4-1 win to the arsenal although I never did like early kick off’s. Also prefer ainsely maitland-niles at rb with all due respect to jenko.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  5. Wilshegz

    i’ll have said 0-3 cos we dnt like grabbing the opportunity to trash these big teams when we have it but when I remmber Jenkinson ll most likely start in RB, it’s hard to see a cleansheet so I go with
    Man.U 1-3 Arsenal

    but I want United 0-7 Arsenal 🙂

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  6. Jansen

    For me a draw is unlikely. If we show up with our A game for 90 minutes we win. If we don’t show up with our A game but instead play slow, deliberate, insecure football, we lose.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

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