Arsenal can still win two trophies and finish in a Champions League spot.
Earlier this year I did an article where I assessed the chances of Arsenal winning the FA Cup, Europa League and finishing in the top-four. It now feels like a good time to have another look at how things have changed in terms of what chance the bookies give Mikel Arteta and his men of achieving success in some form this season.
Now, when I did the earlier article, which can be viewed here, I wrote the following
Top-Four
“When I saw the 28/1 available I have to admit I was pleasantly surprised”
FA Cup
“I could not believe the 10/1 on offer and snapped some of that up.”
Europa League
“The 8/1 available I thought was a little insulting when you consider Man Utd are best priced 7/1.”
Well, I have checked the odds today and the odds are a little different. A top-four spot has fallen from 28/1 to high of 22/1 and as low as 16/1.
FA Cup glory has weirdly gone out to 14/1, why, I just do not know, it is not as if Arsenal are playing Man City in the next round.
Finally, the odds of winning the Europa League is roughly the same.
So, according to the bookies, Arsenal chances of finishing top-four have improved, FA Cup glory got worse and Europa League success about the same.
I think it is time for me to go back in on the FA Cup a bit.
DIf I were you I won’t put too much into what the ‘experts’ are saying. They don’t like us much and won’t think too highly of our chances anyway.
Which is good…
Europa League has Inter Milan, RB Salsburg and Man Utd to contend with. FA Cup has Man City to contend ith so chances of making the CL through the 5th place are the best. Up the Gunners!
Salzburg are much worse without Haaland.
Inter will be fighting for Serie A and will have the next year’s CL spot sealed even without the EL so their motivation will be much lower than ours.
United we can win easily if OGS stays.
On the other hand, our league fixtures will get very difficult very soon and it will be difficult to win most of them…
Still think EL is our best bet if you take our fixture list into account.
And FA cup has bot City AND Liverpool in it… But you never know. They may draw each other, City wins, and then their defenders have a nightmare in the final, but yeah 10-1 or 14-1 seems right.
Gunnerphilic, bookmakers are not pundits; their likes and dislikes of various clubs does not come into it. They are hard headed business people who set the odds on probability of success and the money wagered at this time on the various competitors for top four, FA Cup and Europa League.
I have to laugh at the naivety of this artIcle and some, (not all) of the posts so far. As a long term successful pro bettor, I thoroughly understand how odds work, how they change and WHY, and also understand and take advantage of the natural and common bias that fans of certain(in fact all!) big clubs have about their own chances. We are GOONERS on here and the constant bias towards our own team both irritates me, as truth lover and helps me as a knowledgeable realist where odds and percentages are concerned. I ADVISE ALL WHO HAVE ONLY A RUDIMENTARY KNOWLEGE OF THESE SUBJECTS TO AVOID PUTTING THEIR OWN MOMEY UP TO BE TAKEN, LIKE “CANDY FROM A BABY”, BY SHREWD BOOKIES AND KNOWLEDGEABLE BETTORS.
Our realistic odds of making top four are remote and only slightly better of top five. Top 6 or 7, both of which will possible guarantee a Europa place, are getting better weekly but are still way, way, less than an even money bet. My precise odds that I think are true, I will keep to myself. . But learn the business before risking your money and that is good advice , I assure you.
FA CUP IS A LOTTERY AND I RARELY BET ON THE OUTRIGHT WINNER, AS THERE ARE TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES.