Who will finish fourth? by Jonbo
Given Chelsea’s league form, it is conceivable that they can be caught by the chasing pack and lose out on third place, but given the quality of their squad, and the confidence boost of just becoming Club World Cup champions, I cannot see it happening.
So, for the purpose of this article, I wanted to focus on the teams chasing fourth in the league, having a light-hearted look at my own formula for predicting who gets fourth. Teams will be placed from 1st-4th in each category, receiving 4pts for first, 3pts for second, and so on. The teams in contention: West Ham, Man Utd, Arsenal, Spurs.
Performances (consistency of performances)
1 – West Ham
2 – Arsenal
3 – Spurs
4 – Man Utd
Quality of Squad
1 – Man Utd
2 – Arsenal
3 – Spurs
4 – West Ham
Experience of Squad
1 – Man Utd
2 – Spurs
3 – West Ham
4 – Arsenal
Depth of Squad
1 – Man Utd
2 – Spurs
3 – Arsenal
4 – West Ham
Quality of Manager
1 – Spurs
2 – Arsenal
3 – West Ham
4 – Man Utd
Club History (more of a nuanced category, but I honestly feel club history, in connection with the size of the club, often plays a role in results. E.g. Man Utd and Arsenal have a long history of qualifying for the CL, whereas Spurs, and especially West Ham, do not. I feel this does give ourselves and Utd a slight edge.)
1 – Man Utd
2 – Arsenal
3 – Spurs
4 – West Ham
Results
1 – Man Utd 18pts
2 – Spurs 16pts
3 – Arsenal 15pts
4 – West Ham 11pts
As we can see, Utd come out on top, but one important footnote – Arsenal have 2 games in hand on Utd and West Ham, Spurs have 3 games in hand over those two. If ourselves and Spurs both win our games in hand, we’ll both be on the same points, 5pts clear of Utd and West Ham.
So, Utd collected the most points from my formula, and I personally feel they will edge it, but why, given their constantly shocking performances both domestically, and Europe, AND all the off-field problems?
The answer is in the results. Utd have been shocking in the CL, yet only lost one game on their way to winning the group. They have been just as bad in the league, and for longer, yet after 24 games, are in 5th, level on points with 4th placed West Ham. They do not defend well, have barely any teamwork, and huge off the field problems as well. So how are they still alive in the league and in Europe?
It’s because they have so much experience, and so many big-name players. Doesn’t matter how bad they’re performing on the day, the likes of Ronaldo, Pogba, Sancho, Rashford, De Gea, Fernandes, etc, keep bailing them out of difficult situations. That is the big advantage they have over us, West Ham and Spurs.
Overall, you need quality and teamwork to win and compete for the biggest prizes, but we’re not talking about the biggest prizes though. We’re talking about scraping into 4th, most probably 30pts or so off the eventual league champions. To do that, Utd can get away with having no teamwork, because their quality will be enough. That said, it is a very fine line with Utd at the moment given all the off-field problems as well, and the egos in that dressing room. I always feel they’re just one step away from an implosion.
Now before folks go nuts in the comments section, remember this is just a light-hearted look at the fourth-place situation. This is neither Arteta In nor Arteta Out, it’s just a bit of fun. If you like the formula, use it yourself in the comments, and see what team comes out on top.
Jonbo
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