Analysis of how and why Arsenal can beat Man City at the Etihad

Admin Pat

1 year ago

ARSENAL MUST LINE UP IN A MAKE-OR-BREAK FORMATION AT THE ETIHAD by Nikko

It’s official, the 2023 English Premier League (EPL) title looks to be on the dais on the evening of Wednesday the 26^th of April 2023, at the Etihad Stadium, because this is a match up that looks to carry the title’s crowning decider. Whomsoever gets the 3-points here is likely to go on and lift the trophy.

With Arsenal standing precariously at the apex of the table on 75 points followed by Manchester City with 70 points, but with two games in hand now…meaning City winning the two games will get them past Arsenal on the same number of games. Also, the fact that the venue of this crunch match is Etihad, swings the advantage to Manchester City.

This has only become so, especially because Arsenal have posted identical outcomes of 1-point-only games in their last three matches starting with the Anfield match verses Liverpool, London Stadium against West Ham and finally at the Emirates against Southampton, which were all drawn. In the first two matches Arsenal managed to throw away two-goal leads to end up sharing the spoils when it looked like the match objectives for Arsenal had already been met. The third one Arsenal had to chase the game and eventually just fell short of coming away with a win.

Therefore, the elephant in the room is if Arsenal come away with something from the Etihad stadium?

To find a dream result Arsenal needs in historical files, you have to go back all the way to 2015 January for an Arsenal win at the Etihad. Back then Manchester City was on the steady rise and had not even acquired their current Manager, Pep Guardiola. In fact, it’s accurate to say Guardiola’s Manchester City has never lost to Arsenal at the Etihad. That’s the historic context of what Arsenal lifting the title in 2023 could require, especially after the latest string of draws the gunners have posted, losing lots of ground to Manchester City in the EPL title run in.

So, how would Arsenal be expected to achieve the near impossible.

Arsenal have posted results no one expected of them.

When Arsenal opened the 2022-2023 with five wins out of five, the language was that Arsenal were just as usual, quick off the blocks and would soon lose steam and fizzle out. Especially that the next round of fixtures involved Manchester United, Tottenham, Brentford, Liverpool and Leeds. Surely, the collapse was eminent.

Arsenal won all these games. Suddenly, it was looking like Arsenal would be the real deal. Arsenal lost their first points away at a hard-fought draw to Southampton. The naysayers were back and now with Europa League and the EFL Cup fixtures involved, and teams to play including Chelsea, Brighton, West Ham and Newcastle on the roster, surely the collapse was in the offing. Arsenal lost the EFL tie to Brighton and was to play the same team in the EPL in weeks. Again, the Gunners pulled through with losing a point to another draw with a rejuvenated Newcastle United.

January and February were tough with the FA Cup on and games against the likes of Manchester United, Tottenham, Everton, Manchester City and Brentford were coming up. Arsenal ended up losing to Manchester City twice, first in the FA Cup, a close fight that could have gone either way and then 3-1 at the Emirates. In between, the Arsenal lost to Everton away, and drew with Brentford at home.

Arsenal have made great results. One more at the Etihad would not be that odd this season.

Records are there to be broken.

For Arsenal, this is the momentous opportunity to break a record. Having not won or drawn any match at the Etihad since 2015 is a record that sticks out to be broken. The bad run at the Anfield was almost reversed this season with Arsenal going into a 2-0 lead in the first half before capitulating in the second half to let Liverpool comeback to draw the game, and Liverpool even had opportunities to win it. Arsenal will thank Goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale who pulled near impossible saves to keep the game at a draw.

Arsenal should plan to rewrite these records and this season looks like an opportunity for such a record to be re-written.

Tactical nuances making Arsenal the unexpected opponent.

Arsenal 2022-2023 has been a surprise package that has various variants of the same team. It means Pep Guardiola will this time have to plan without a real and concrete plan for what Arsenal will turn up at the Etihad.

Will it be the Arsenal that grabs the game by the scruff, right from the first whistle, or the Arsenal that will raise it’s game in the second half or the comeback Arsenal?

This means that the chances to surprise the host are more likely. Liverpool faced the unexpected rapid fire from the word go, and would have lost the match, had Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta managed the second half much better.

A Tactic that may deliver the Etihad victory on Wednesday.

Mikel Arteta may have kept the same set of first XI for most of the matches, but then going to the Etihad, maybe it is time to review.

On the evidence of the last three draws, it means that the loss of Saliba from the squad has huge repercussions for the performance. Saliba is likely not to start at the Etihad too.

In the match against Southampton, Arsenal seemed to have been asleep as the match started and only came alive at the 70^th minute. Had the quality of the opposition been of a higher level, the game would have been long sealed by the opponent and Arsenal would have likely left empty handed. What this all means is that this Arsenal variant cannot turn up at the Etihad.

It therefore means that Arteta should re-package the defense as well as re-equip the attack. I would propose a 3-4-1-2 pattern.

Ramsdale, despite his mistake gifting the Saints with their lead last Friday, should start in goal. My three-man defense will include Gabriel in the middle, White on the right side and Tierney on the left. I feel Zinchenko should sit this out as Tierney is a more disciplined defender that one needs for a 3-man-defense. On the left I would have Trossard and the right Saka both playing a rare wing back role, to shore up the defense but also bring in the wings too. Partey would keep his central defensive role but be joined by Emile Smith Rowe playing the Xhaka role. Smith Rowe has goals in him and could be the surprise package on Wednesday. Odegaard plays the attacking midfield and a two-man attack made up of Martinelli and Jesus plays upfront.

The execution could have Smith Rowe and Odegaard sharing and shifting roles, Saka and Jesus sharing roles on the right wing and Martinelli and Trossard too. Once in a while Trossard, Jesus and Martinelli sharing shifts too.

Prediction

With this tactic, Manchester City would seek to push upfront with Haaland receiving huge passes from Rodri, De Bruyne, Foden, Mahrez, Grealish, and the likes of De Bruyne, Mahrez and Grealish seeking to load from the wings. However, if White, Gabriel and Tierney keep their disciplined best, I see Arsenal emerging with 1-2 victory. For Arsenal to win this Wednesday, it’s this kind of brave output that Arsenal must be ready to execute to deliver on the promise this season has been.

Nikko Gunners

Arteta proud of our comeback after Arsenal 3-3 Southampton

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