Another FA Cup Win for The Gunners? Arsenal v Chelsea Statistical Preview

Arsenal fans are relishing the chance to spoil Chelsea’s relentless march to a domestic double, and the chance to claim a record 13th FA Cup win this weekend. So can The Gunners overcome Chelsea to lift the trophy?

A look at recent Premier League and FA Cup form, as well as a dive into the head-to-head fixture history between the two clubs gives us some indication as to what part of London the trophy will be heading to on Saturday night.

Arsenal’s disappointment at losing out on a Champions League qualification spot masked a decent run of wins at the end of the season – mirroring Chelsea’s results across the last five games.


Chelsea’s straightforward run-in and title win began after a 2-0 loss to Manchester United at the end of April.

Six wins on the bounce followed, culminating in a 5-1 romp against Sunderland on the final day of the season.
Arsenal’s late season flourish also followed a defeat in April, at the hands of North London rivals.

Over the past 20 games Chelsea have shown title-winning consistency, grabbing nine more points that the Gunners.

Arsenal have enjoyed a relatively straightforward Cup run, with only Man City presenting any real resistance in the Semi-final at Wembley on April 23rd.

Chelsea have had to overcome strong resistance from Man United and Tottenham, in the Quarter and Semi-finals respectively, to reach Wembley.

JustArsenal v Chelsea Overall Form

Chelsea’s consistency throughout the season ultimately delivered them the Premier League title, but as mentioned Arsenal have demonstrated strong form of late.

The Blues were more prolific in front of goal across the final ten league games, scoring 11 more goals than The Gunners at a rate of nearly three goals a game.

But Arsenal have found their stride from a defensive viewpoint, conceding fewer goals and keeping more clean sheets than Chelsea across the run of games.

As a result Chelsea can point to far stronger offensive form averages heading into the game, while Arsenal boast marginally stronger defensive form.

A move to a back-three seems to have benefited Arsene Wenger’s side, and could be key nullifying the threat posed by Chelsea’s very similar formation.

KickOff’s algorithm tips Chelsea to lift the cup (56% probability), but also suggests both teams will score (again 56% probability).

The Blues are most likely side to score first (54% probability) and it is likely the two teams will score three or more goals between them (56% probability).


  1. John0711 says:

    What ever it takes to get wenger and kronkie out

  2. Guneal says:

    Useless stat.
    Everybody knows it will be a walk over.
    I sincerely hope it turns out like Wenger’s centenary match…you know the score…don’t you?

  3. Yossarian says:

    When it comes to winning the League, we’ve been off the pace for a decade. And it’s a very long time since we were able to make the latter stages of the Champion’s League. And we never win the League Cup either.

    But for some reason Wenger’s Arsenal have become great at winning the FA Cup, since they got rubbish at winning anything else, so an FA Cup win wouldn’t surprise me.

    Then Wenger will announce he’s staying. He’ll say that “Continuity is important” and “Don’t expect much activity in the transfer window” because “Our squad can challenge for the title with just one or two additions” and he’ll say “Cazorla back from injury is like a new signing” and he’ll tell us how “The club is in great shape”

    Then collect his ten million quid and finish 6th next season, after which he will blame “Injuries” and “Referee decisions” and tell us that clubs that spend big aren’t doing it right, because you’re supposed to buy cheap players from second-rate leagues and turn them in Lionel Messi, otherwise it’s cheating… etc… etc…

    You all know the “The usual” by now!

  4. Kilted Gooner says:

    I did genuinely think we were going to win this weekend but after losing Kos, Gab and Mustafi, there is literally no chance!

    1. Fatboy Gooney, Too Fat to track back. says:

      Yup, that’s exactly how the coffee☕️ was smelling this morning and I very much doubt that it will change by tomorrow afternoon.

  5. Fatboy Gooney, Too Fat to track back. says:

    Yeah, it’s a cup game and as the saying goes the form book gets thrown out of the window. But even so, these stats won’t count for much, with our defence hit with injuries and bans.
    Miracles? ?? The Ref & all the other officials would have to be die hard Arsenal fans for us to beat Chelsea.

  6. Godswill says:

    You know what? Watch out for Xhaka and Rambo. They hold the keys.
    Did I hear you say Kante?
    Well tomorrow will tell.
    At the end people will ask, who is this Holding of s boy? I will say he is our Captain in waiting.
    Am a Gunner all through. Come rain come shine, whether Wenger leaves or not, whether Kronke hand over to Usnanov or not. There was Arsenal before them and there shall be Arsenal after them.

    1. mike anierobi says:

      That’s great. This is from a reeaal Gunner.

  7. RSH says:

    it’s going to take a miracle for us to win, let’s just be honest now.

    1. Break-on-through says:

      We should have that printed on the back of Alexis’s shirt. Miracle!!

  8. HA559 says:

    Hey all, I’m not saying what Wenger is doing ( being stingy in transfer market) is right, but if Guardiola is such a good manager why does he need to spend £150m in one summer and now they are already on £40m+ with Bernado Silva and I can assure you another £100m will be spent by them.

    With that being said, Wenger will wait until every player that is supposed to move has moved, then we will be left with ‘there is no top quality’. You know what? it doesn’t matter if he buys top quality apart from a striker. Any other position and the team will be the same. Atleast with a top striker conversion rate would be higher. Brace yourself for the ‘solution can be found internally’.

    1. Break-on-through says:

      He’s a bit like Ozil in that sense. When he’s surrounded by the best of the best he knows how to utilize them very well. When he’s in a fair fight and has to inspire or claw away, he gets shown up. Pep can be facing teams that cost less in total than any one of the few of his top signings, it’s always been the case. Conte, if you gave him a team fighting relegation, you’d be confident. I wouldn’t say the same for Pep. That’s not to say Pep hasn’t being great, it’s just he has big strengths, but also has big weaknesses.

  9. Village Williams says:

    Arsenal could lose 20-0 tomorrow and Wenger will still be in charge talking about how great our ‘nil’ was.

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