Can Arsenal handle the fixture congestion in April? A look at the stats….

Fixture congestion is the biggest danger to Arsenal in the quest to finish top four by Martin

It is easy to look at the fixture lists and attempt to see how many points we will pick up in the race to finish in the top four, especially when we look at the sort of opposition that both we and our main competitors will face, as an example we can look at Tottenham and feel that they will get no points against Man City and that we will get three points against Watford and so on but that is not taking into consideration one huge factor and that is fixture congestion.

Forget how many games each team has, forget what fixture lists that Tottenham, Chelsea and Man Utd have to contend with and concentrate on what we must navigate.

I looked at how many games we have had, in all competitions, for each month since the season started and it makes interesting reading.

August 3 games – 2 wins 1 loss
September 6 games – 6 wins
October 6 games – 5 wins 1 draw
November 5 games – 2 wins 3 draws
December 9 games – 4 wins 2 draws 3 losses
January 6 games – 4 wins 2 losses
February 6 games – 4 wins 2 losses
March 4 games – 2 wins 1 draw 1 loss

If we break that down into percentages of wins for each month from the games played we get this…

August 3 games – 66% wins
September 6 games – 100% wins
October 6 games – 83.33% wins
November 5 games – 40% wins
December 9 games 44% wins
January 6 games 66.6% wins
February 6 games 66.6% wins
March 4 games 50% wins

So, it is clear that the most losses were in the month with the most games, and the second lowest win record was also in that month, I could carry on with even more stats, breaking down points and so forth, but anyone looking at the bare figures can see quite clearly that December was not a good month, four wins from nine games is not the sort of form that propels one into the Champions League.

Arsenal play eight games in April and these are not games in the league cup, early stages of the Europa League, FA Cup and so on, they are critical games, all that brings significant pressure, it is not the time to blood youngsters and injuries can have a massive impact.

Of course, our competitors have just as many games but this is not about them, this is about us, if we drop points here, there and everywhere because of too many games we cannot then hope that Chelsea, Tottenham and Man Utd do the same, this is on us and we have to do far better in April than we did the last time we had fixture congestion, it is as simple as that.

14 Comments

  1. gotanidea says:

    It’s gonna be tough, but I believe Aubameyang/ Lacazette would not let Arsenal to be barren in those games and the 3-4-1-2 would make Arsenal’s defense better

  2. jon fox says:

    Sorry to be blunt but this article is effectively like teaching your granny to suck eggs. Which means “why state the bl….ng obvious! I would hope for better and more sensibly thought out articles than this tosh, which says effectively nothing. Summed up, it says if we win enough games and points we make top four If we don’t, then we won’t! DUH!!!

    1. Jamaal says:

      What’s with your daily slating of people’s articles? Why don’t you bring the “so called sensibly thought” articles your self?
      This is not personal but I have observed that you are the type that everyone is wrong but you and anyone agreeing with you? How sad are you really mate?

      1. jon fox says:

        You are quite wrong. What I do and all I do is to try to challenge nonsense comments and those stating the obvious, as this article does, though it aims to blind with nonsensical stats to distract from the fact he had nothing of his own to actually say. If you were to bother to dissect his article you should note that he says nothing of note whatever. I was merely trying, as I often do, to get those who say nothing to think more deeply and think behind the obvious, which all with normal intelligence – which are almost ALL on here – and give more rational thought before posting for the sake of merely posting something. Personally I prefer to actually say something when I post as this post shows you. You misuse words, eg “sad”, as so many younger people do . I am a happy person and rarely sad, though lack of intelligence in certain others, though only in a very few in truth, does grieve me at times. Perhaps you may reconsider why I wrote as I did before uttering criticism that shows you have not thought at all. You actually did what you falsely accuse me of doing. Ironic really!

  3. Phil says:

    Completely off topic and without wishing to advertise an alternative Arsenal Blog Site (Admin-Its not a patch on the Just Arsenal Forum),I urge everyone to turn to A Cultered Left Foot and watch a video posted titled “An Inspirational Friendship”.
    We too often critisise players for their huge earnings and apparent lack of identity with supporters.This video will change your mind.
    Take 5 minutes to watch and it will move you.

    1. ken1945 says:

      Phil, this is the one featuring Xhaka I believe.
      It really is a wonderful insight into a special relationship and, of course, it won’t make any headlines because it’s “good news”.
      Lovely to see the other players bonding with the young lad (can’t remember his name at this precise moment) but it certainly made me feel enriched seeing one of players doing this.

      1. Phil says:

        Ken-we too often mistake the players in all aspects simply because their wealth puts them so far above the very vast majority of supporters.But who can seriously watch this and say the emotions of these players is exactly how we would wish them to conduct themselves.Ot reminds me of Jermaine Dafoe and the support he gave to the young Sunderland fan and continues to give to his family I believe.
        Heartwarming video that should make ALL fans proud of their team and of Arsenal Football Club in general.

        1. ken1945 says:

          Absolutely Phil and I just hope all Gooners take time out to watch it, think about life in general and the devotion that the mother gives to her son as well.
          Football can bring so much pleasure, but it is only a game not life itself.
          Brilliant story from every angle and the young lad seems so matter of fact playing football with the players.
          Made my day that’s for sure, perhaps one day we can rid ourselves of this downes syndrome problem…but until then people like Xhaka and Defoe should be applauded for their actions.

          1. Sue says:

            That brought happy tears to my eyes! What a sweet little boy & seeing Xhaka & Sokratis hugging him as if he was their own… ?
            What a beautiful clip…. hope we see more of this as Julian gets older
            Granit Xhaka take a bow ???

  4. ken1945 says:

    gotanidea, it always puzzles me how you seem to be the first post in over 99% of the subjects aired for discussion.
    How do you do this?
    Not criticising in any way, but just interested from a curious point of view.

    As for the article itself, well done for the work put in regarding %’s etc. but what it is denoting is really irrelevant.

    All we need to do is better the results of spuds, utd and chelsea in March/ April and we would finish in the top four…lose more points than them and we won’t.
    Simple as that:

    1. gotanidea says:

      By continuously checking this site, since I have plenty of time currently

      1. ken1945 says:

        gotanidea, well old friend, you deserve a medal for loyalty and commitment that’s for sure.

        I’ve made myself a promise though and that is to beat you to at least one first statement this year!!!!

        Always enjoy your comments, read them thoroughly, digest them and agree/disagree as to their contents.

        Thanks for the reply.

  5. Break-on-through says:

    People are saying that we have the easier run in, but they’re forgetting that the teams we play do not have Euro football, that makes our away days probably trickier than a home game v a big six team, and even in the away big six matches they may well have a chance to prioritize a fixture.

    I hope the Dubai trip does the magic, I remember utd going out there once for the same, can’t remember if it worked out for them.

    Also, we are only fueling the opposition by saying I like our run in compared to x y & z, it gives them motivation to shove it back into our face. Talk after the game is won, do a Troy Deeney, yes compared to Arsene he is a coward as Arsene actually spoke before he made his team invincible, but on this occasion we should all act cowardly, we should all act like a big bully boy Troy.

  6. Sunny says:

    The Everton game is very important . Considering we beat new castle at home , then if we take maximum points against Everton. Then it will be really helpful. Even if we get draw against Wolves and Watford, we should win the remaining. that will get us through the top 4 spot
    Newcastle H- 3 Points
    Everton A -3 Points
    Watford A-D-1
    Palace Home-3 Points
    Leicesster A- L-0 points
    Brighton h- W-3 points
    Wolves- D-1 point
    Burnley -A-W-3 points
    Total 17 points Should be enough

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