Dan’s EPL Predictions week 32 – Arsenal to win but not City

West Ham 2–2 Wolves

West Ham knows if they beat the team at the bottom of the table, they will put Spurs in the bottom 3.
Normally, at this stage of the season, facing the basement boys should be a formality, but for a club that has known for a while that they are getting relegated, Wolves have been playing well.
Yet it all means there’s a lot of pressure on the Hammers on Friday night. The Irons proved in the FA Cup that they can create an atmosphere at the London Stadium (I had my doubts), but how often do their fans arrive expecting a win because they are favourites?
Nuno Santos’s team are not used to playing with that level of expectation; they prefer to be in the role of underdogs, and that might impact the result.

Arsenal 1–0 Cherries

As long-term readers will know, I have for a while pencilled this weekend as being potentially a decisive one in the title race.
Arsenal know if they win on Saturday, they will send Man City to the Bridge the next day, 12 points behind us!
The two cup exits have left some Gooners fearing that the pressure is crippling the Gunners, with not enough characters to respond. Because of that fear of failure, it then makes the Emirates anxious.
All opponents will try to use our nerves against us.
Iriola will tell his team that the longer they stay in the game, the less time it will take for the tension to creep around the stadium.
Yet the only way to learn how to deal with these moments is to go out and do it!
Like the Everton fixture, we need to go through an emotional rollercoaster and survive to feel confident again. The beautiful thing about football is that momentum can change so quickly.

Brentford 0–2 Everton

We now know 5th will be enough to qualify for the Champions League. The winner of this match would go above Chelsea and be level on points with Liverpool.
As things stand, a top 7 finish would guarantee European football, but a higher league position could be enough depending on who wins which cup.
Keith Andrews and David Moyes should be managers of the year if they take their clubs into Europe.

Burnley 2–3 Brighton

With Brentford and Everton guaranteed to take points off each other, this is a golden chance for Brighton to put themselves into the conversation for a European spot.
Many England fans saw the irony that after Solanke and Calvert-Lewin failed their Three Lions audition, Danny Welbeck scored twice against Liverpool, meaning no Englishman has scored more in the Premier League this season than the striker.
The only issue is if Thomas Tuchel didn’t select the 35-year-old after calling up 37 other names, that means you’re quite far down the pecking order.
If the ex-Gunner has a strong end to the season, though, never say never.
I think he will get on the scoresheet on Saturday.

Liverpool 2–1 Fulham

So the same fanbase who booed Trent Alexander-Arnold for not being loyal (even though he respected his contract) now want the club to sack the man who won only their 2nd ever Prem in 3 decades.
If you want any more of a double standard, Mo Salah has leveraged having his contract torn up in the summer, not respecting his contract like Trent, but that’s apparently okay because it suits the club.
I don’t agree with how Arne Slot is being treated, but unless he lifts the Champions League (and they are 2–0 down after the first leg in Paris), he needs to leave because it’s untenable. If you have lost the supporters less than a year after winning the title, imagine the pressure next season if you’re slow out of the traps.
Liverpool is known for looking after their managers, but the mood is low at Anfield at the moment. They could kick off level on points with Everton. They don’t want the headache of a Merseyside Derby with their neighbours breathing down their necks.

Crystal Palace 2–1 Newcastle

Gooners need to support Palace in the UEFA Conference because the longer they stay in Europe, the more Man City have to wait to play their game in hand.
The Eagles should have enough points in the Prem to properly focus on the Fiorentina tie, meaning this fixture, sandwiched in between, in theory, should be the least of their priorities.
Therefore, a win would put the pressure on Eddie Howe. After a heavy defeat to Barcelona and a derby loss at home, do you sense a section of the Toon Army is starting to lose faith?
The 48-year-old is 3–1 to be the next manager to be sacked in the Prem.
Those odds were 40–1 in January!
I wonder if he regrets not making it clear to the FA he was ready for the England job this summer.

Nottm Forest 1–1 Villa

This could be a dress rehearsal for the semi-final of the Europa League.
Forest would love to have more points in the Prem so they could properly focus on Europe, while Villa at least have a 6-point gap between them and 6th.
Neither side has the biggest squads to balance playing on a Sunday after being away from home on Thursday. That’s why I will sit on the fence.

Sunderland 0–1 Spurs

Obviously, depending on what happens Friday night will dictate how much pressure is on Spurs at the Stadium of Light.
As expected, Spurs spent the international break changing managers. It’s believed a hefty survival bonus persuaded De Zerbi not to wait until the summer to apply for the vacancy. So Spurs could have made this appointment in January.
The 46-year-old has his own ethos, so the longer he gets on the training pitch, the better his new team will be (he’s had a week so far).
Yet the Italian is smart enough not to worry about the style of play in pre-season. From now until May, it’s about going back to basics.
Igor Tudor has far more serious issues going on in his life, and understandably didn’t need the headache of a job not working to worry about. After the death of his father, I don’t want to be disrespectful, but the reality is a half-decent manager should be able, with 7 fixtures left, to get more points than one of Leeds, Forest or West Ham.
So while the former Brighton boss is too combustible for this to be a successful appointment long-term, he’s good enough to keep Spurs in the division.
He will then claim the easiest bonus of his career.

Chelsea 2–2 Man City

I am less confident about our London rivals doing us a favour than I was a few weeks ago, simply based on the nature of our two cup exits.
He will never publicly disrespect his apprentice, but Pep Guardiola will have spent this week in training using the Carabao and FA Cup as evidence that Arsenal are yet again going missing when the lights are on brightly. He will point out that, meanwhile, his attacking players have saved their best form for the run-in. The Gunners can’t say the same.
It also doesn’t help that Liam Rosenior is choosing to leave out Enzo Fernández for this fixture.
He’s come out with some strange ideas since becoming Chelsea manager, but when your club needs points to qualify for the Champions League, by leaving out one of your best players, you’re only hurting yourself.
Fernández will still be getting paid for sitting at home this weekend; your job is under pressure. You could kick off 4 points behind 5th, so I’m not sure fans want their best players not featuring against Man City.

Man United 2–0 Leeds

It tells you how far Man United have fallen over the years that, while the quarter-finals of the FA Cup and Champions League are happening, the Red Devils have had an official 3-week mid-season break.
Surely they will be back in Europe next year, with a 7-point gap between them and 6th.
Next time, though, if any managers/pundits / fans complain about how dangerous the schedule is for players’ welfare, why are these two clubs playing each other in Ireland on August 12th?
Which is either arrogant or quite defeatist from Leeds, depending on how you look at it.
Why have they agreed to a friendly when the Championship starts two days later?
It’s a positive mindset that they have assumed they will not get relegated. Yet they have since had to confirm they will have to cancel the fixture at Croke Park if they are involved in the Community Shield. So whoever arranged their pre-season obviously didn’t account for lifting the FA Cup.

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