Dan’s EPL Predictions Week 38: Who Makes Europe And Who Misses Out?

Brighton 2-1 Man United

(Brighton can still qualify for any three of the UEFA tournaments or end up with zero European football at all).

They need a Liverpool win and Villa and Bournemouth losses to advance to the Champions League.

A victory guarantees at least a spot in the Europa League, but anything less and they could get knocked out of the top eight.

The Seagulls start the day in a bizarre situation. There is a world where they could qualify for the Champions League, Europa League, Conference League or zero European football at all.

I like listening to the Overlap Podcast.

I find it worthwhile hearing from ex players about the mindset it takes to be a winner.

Roy Keane essentially said this week that a club like Man United should not be fixated on one player getting an assist record and is worried that Bruno Fernandes himself admitted that last Sunday he was passing instead of shooting purely because he wants the record.

As a former Red Devils captain, the pundit is right to point out that when he was in the dressing room, his peers would not care about assists if they were third in the league.

Burnley 1-1 Wolves

The losers get the wooden spoon.

Two clubs that have been cut adrift for months, both do not have the managers they started the season with, and you cannot blame either set of fans for just wanting the campaign to end.

To be fair, rarely have you questioned the commitment of either squad, but the quality simply has not been there.

A draw seems almost appropriate.

Crystal Palace 0-1 Arsenal

After weeks of reminding ourselves that Oliver Glasner will most likely rest key players for the Conference League, how refreshing is it not to now have to worry about this fixture?

Honestly, I do not think I could have handled the stress of having to worry about winning at Selhurst Park at the same time Man City were playing.

With both clubs having European finals, this becomes the definition of an end of season game. It is hard to predict because both elevens will not be the first team.

I really do not care.

I just cannot wait for the Gunners to lift that Premier League trophy after a 22 year wait.

It will be the first time Arsenal have lifted the Premier League away from Highbury.

Fulham 2-1 Newcastle

Fulham really missed a chance last weekend.

Win at the club bottom of the table and they would have put themselves in the conversation for a European spot.

Maybe that would have helped Marco Silva make up his mind regarding his future?

As I write this, the Portuguese remains undecided whether Sunday is his farewell to the Cottage.

He must deep down know by now if he wants to extend his contract, but unlike Glasner or Iraola, he has not made his decision public.

For better or worse, I sense this is an important summer for Eddie Howe at Newcastle.

Liverpool 2-1 Brentford

While Liverpool can mathematically still fall out of the top five, it is improbable because of their superior goal difference to Bournemouth.

A Liverpool win and Aston Villa loss are the only two results which mean sixth spot will be enough to qualify for the Champions League.

Brentford can still earn European football for the first time in their history by winning if either Chelsea or Brighton do not.

Lost in the drama of Tuesday night was that Haaland’s equaliser saved Liverpool from the pressure of needing a result on the final day to guarantee Champions League football.

Arne Slot could do without that headache after Mo Salah’s social media post, one that some of his teammates liked.

The Egyptian was essentially insisting the Reds should be following the ethos of the previous manager.

The only issue is this is the 33 year old’s last game, so his comments are not to help the club long term, it is him taking a final potshot at his boss.

As for those in the dressing room responding with a thumbs up and other emojis, why not take responsibility for your own failings this season instead of blaming tactics?

Your attacking principles are not the reason why you have conceded 52 goals.

Man City 3-0 Aston Villa

(Aston Villa have to lose and Liverpool win for sixth to be enough to qualify for the Champions League.)

I do not think it was a coincidence that Pep Guardiola leaving Man City was leaked the night before they played the Cherries.

I think it was a last push to motivate a dressing room, but in the end they looked tired on the south coast.

For so long I assumed I would be desperate for Villa to do us a favour, but I am now in a position where I can root for a home win because it would help sixth be enough to qualify for the Champions League, which for Bournemouth or Brighton would be amazing.

Partly because, since lifting the Europa League, Unai Emery’s men have little motivation to win at the Etihad.

As I write this, there has still been zero official confirmation that Sunday is Pep’s farewell.

If it is, that can only help Arsenal in the next title race.

The Spaniard will be remembered as one of the greatest to ever manage in this division.

N Forest 1-1 Cherries

The Cherries are guaranteed a place in the Europa League.

A draw guarantees them sixth spot, which will be enough for the Champions League if Villa finish fifth.

If Brighton do not beat Man United, the Cherries can afford to lose at the City Ground and still finish sixth.

Bournemouth were seconds from a win on Tuesday that would have given them a great chance of qualifying for the Champions League.

Yet they did not seem to mind too much, as the point means European football for the first time in their history.

Sixth could still be enough to qualify for the Champions League if Villa finish fifth.

The Cherries need Liverpool and Man City to win.

Those two results are not unlikely, so it is crucial they try to look after their own business at the City Ground.

Sunderland 0-1 Chelsea

Chelsea start the day in the UEFA Conference League spot.

If they win and Brighton do not, they will be in the Europa League.

A loss though and they will have zero European football.

A draw would be enough to stay in eighth if Brentford do not win at Anfield.

Sunderland have to win to have a chance of Europe.

If that happens, they need either Brighton to lose or Brentford not to win.

If I were a Chelsea fan, I would be relieved by the appointment of Alonso.

For no other reason, the Spaniard would not have accepted any job offer unless he had serious guarantees.

That should reassure supporters that their owners are genuine when they say there will be serious reflection on what has gone wrong at Stamford Bridge.

Sources at the club say they do not go by the theory that it would be better to have zero European football than be back in the Conference League.

Sunderland would knock them out of the top eight with a victory.

A win at the Stadium of Light and they can still take a Europa League spot off Brighton.

Spurs 1-1 Everton

(Spurs stay up with a point or if West Ham do not win)

At one point things looked so bleak for Spurs that they would have bitten your hand off for a scenario where survival was in their own hands on the final day.

Their fans will admit it is embarrassing they have fallen so far that they have to think like that, but that can wait until the summer.

For 90 minutes on Sunday they know they have to get behind the team because it would be counterproductive not to.

In general the performances have been better under De Zerbi and they are fortunate that Everton are not a team who set up to win away from home.

West Ham 2-2 Leeds

(West Ham stay up if they beat Leeds and Spurs lose.)

Spurs have missed two opportunities to kill West Ham off and in that respect the Hammers might be relieved to get to the final day still with a chance of survival.

A lot will depend on score updates from North London.

The moment the Irons hear Spurs are leading, the London Stadium will go quiet.

Everton would not be the bee’s knees away from home, would you pick them to get you a win?

Dan Smith

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