My full EPL table Predictions for 2023/24 by Dan Smith
Man City – 1st.
So that time of the year where the rest of England tries to convince themselves that Man City have enough issues that make them vulnerable.
If they had any other manager, there might be hope that their players will be complacent after winning a Treble.
Yet they are coached by Pep Guardiola who likes to set himself a challenge every year.
Two years ago, he won a title without a striker, in the last campaign he lifted three trophies without full backs, this time he will want to prove he can keep a squad full of winners focused.
If he senses anyone not having the right hunger, he won’t be afraid to drop them.
Sir Alex Ferguson used to explain the importance of always freshening up a winning team, so while the Champions have lost a couple of senior midfielders, that simply means a Foden plays more while Kovavic is a multi-time Champions League winner.
The worry for the rest is Haaland is only going to get better while Stones will continue to master the hybrid defender role.
City’s formation sees them play 4 natural centre backs. In Diaz, Laporte, Ake, Stones and now Gvardiol, they might be unrivalled in terms of reliable defenders.
So, the best striker in the division and a collection of world class CB’s, that normally is a recipe to end in poll position.
Man United – 2nd.
Let me stress, outside of the Etihad, all of last season’s top 5 have the potential to either be contenders or have a crazy season.
I have gone for United as runners up as they just seem a bit more settled at the moment.
Erik Ten Hag has a clear identity of how he wants to play, and his squad seem to have brought into his ethos.
He reminds me of a coach, who the longer he has in training, the better his team becomes?
So, after a year settling in, in theory he should only get better.
Will mentally be tougher having tasted silverware.
Have paid over the odds for Hojlund but with few strikers on the market, a gamble they had to take.
1-11 a good team but not a great squad.
Arsenal 3rd
Calm down …. this will be a comfortable 3rd and remember most likely top 5 is enough to qualify for the Champions League
The Gunners will go two ways.
We either fly out of the blocks and our youngsters will be better for the experience of last May or there is a hangover?
While we got to 50 points by Xmas, we did that as underdogs.
Now though there is expectation on us, and we know this group don’t handle pressure well.
I would have felt better had we kept Xhaka as a squad player.
Grame Souness always says a team is only as good as your senior professionals and again that’s where our dressing room is lacking.
If things go wrong, how many leaders do we have?
With the Havertz purchase, the interest in another keeper, freezing out Tierney, too many players in the hybrid role, I fear Arteta might be over complicating things?
Let me stress though, Gooners shouldn’t panic.
That’s why I have predicted we finish as low as we do because I fear how some of my peers react if a title challenge doesn’t materialise.
In reality after 6 years away, another year at UEFA top table is not the end of world and we can continue to build.
A mistake would be for fans to overreact and undermine our progress.
We are building something at the Emirates – but not quite yet.
Liverpool -4th
Liverpool are the warning to us.
This time last year many called the Reds Man City’s closest challengers, but they couldn’t maintain the standards they had set previously.
In an era where the top sides are struggling to recruit top level strikers, it’s worth stressing that Liverpool have an attack that on their day can still destroy anyone.
Defensively though they are not good enough to sustain a title challenge.
Altering Arnold’s position gets the best out of him, but it doesn’t change Liverpool have become easy to make chances against.
Part of our predictions is foreshadowing how people respond to their seasons?
I’m already doubting if Klopp has the drive to do what it takes to compete with Pep, so what happens if he’s out of a title race by Xmas?
He’s already gone passive aggressive, and it wouldn’t shock me if this is his last year at Anfield.
Playing in the Europa League means they can rest their best players in midweek and focus on playing once a week.
Got over the odds for Henderson and Fabinho so why not do likewise in terms of buying Lavia?
Chelsea – 5th
So, to clarify if a club find themselves in 5th that’s suddenly a lucrative position.
From 2024-25, UEFA will use the Swiss Format giving an extra place in the Champions League to leagues with the highest coefficient ranking.
That’s most likely England and Spain.
From a competitive point of view, it takes away the drama that an Arsenal could have a bad season and still get rewarded.
The rule change comes at a convenient time in Chelsea’s history as sneaking into 5th seems their only chance of returning to Europe’s top table.
Given how some of their fans have been brought up, it will take some time for them to accept transitional years and their owners might have to accept that.
Even with the money they have made from their clear-out (thank goodness for Saudia Arabia) the criteria seems to be buying youngsters who need to learn the league.
It would be counterproductive to put pressure on Pochettino if there is zero title challenge at the Bridge, because Chelsea are simply not in the conversation.
With no Europe, they can focus on domestic football, preparing for one fixture a week.
Spurs – 6th
As I write this Harry Kane seems likely to see out his contract.
Daniel Levy obviously feels that 100 million isn’t enough compensation for losing the England captain’s goals.
That makes financial sense if those goals fire Spurs into the CL and he will be aware it should be easier with an extra spot up for grabs.
There is no reason to doubt Kane’s professionalism, so a world will exist where the striker becomes a free agent while giving his best every week.
Yet the concept rarely works.
Come January clubs will call Spur’s bluff and it becomes a drama.
I sense Spurs understand they have to give Postecoglou time and as long as he plays entertaining football they will.
Winning in Scotland doesn’t qualify you for a top job in England.
Spurs are in transition but strangely need to move on from Kane to go through that process.
Newcastle – 7th
Despite being one of the richest clubs in the world and qualifying for the Champions League in their first full season under new owners, the Toon Army might have expected more stardust this summer.
Yet Eddie Howe has always maintained that signings would be made for footballing reasons. Outside of Barnes they have acquisitions who might need time to settle.
I’m shocked Saint Maximin left, and at the moment I would say the squad is still too small to handle Champions League Football without it impacting them domestically.
That might be worth it for Geordies if it means European nights, and this is a fanbase who won’t forget where they have come from.
This is where we learn about the ownership though.
Are they ruthless and make changes at the first sign of struggle or do they choose stability?
Or have they now got what they wanted now that they sportswash every week on UEFA biggest stage?
Aston Villa – 8th
In terms of pure value, have any team done better in the summer market then Villa?
They got Tielemans for free, a bargain as long as they don’t get last season’s version.
Moussa Diaby could be one to watch.
Only reason I’m not ranking them higher is because a small squad have to juggle Europe.
Their fringe players can get them through the early rounds but like West Ham, as the season gets to the latter stages, they will make the UEFA Nations League a priority.
Given Emery ‘s record in Europe, they can win it.
Crystal Palace – 9th
It’s hard for Steve Parish because as long as your being managed by a 75-year-old on a rolling contract then any long-term plans are on pause.
At the same time, by employing Roy Hodgson, you’re ensuring you stay out of any relegation worries.
What was shocking when Roy returned to Selhurst Park was his desire to play attacking football, a style not associated with his managerial career.
No reason why the Eagles can’t take momentum from the end of last season into this one.
Everton – 10 th
It was interesting to witness some Everton fans booed an attempt at a pitch invasion when they stayed up last season, in contrast to the celebrations when Lampard did the same the year previous.
That shows there are Toffees who don’t want to let the owners think their current position is acceptable.
I’m giving them this position purely based on who their manger is.
Give Sean Dyche a preseason and he can make a team organised and hard to beat.
He will get enough clean sheets to keep you away from a relegation fight.
He can’t trust Calvert Lewin to stay fit, meaning he hasn’t got a reliable goal scorer.
Out of his 5 wins as Everton boss, 4 were 1-0 wins.
More of the same, but long term will Goodison accept that style of play?
Brighton – 11th
The Seagulls not being in the top half is actually a compliment simply because I think their small squad will understandably embrace their first ever European campaign.
Plus are we a top 6 club having a crisis away from De Zerbi being poached?
McAllister has left, Caicedo might if the price is right, but you trust the clubs scouting team to adapt and go again.
They might already be about to do that by getting Kudus!
There’s still Mitoma, Enciso, Ferguson, Estupinan who will only get better.
Burnley – 12th
It’s rarely as simple as all three promoted sides get relegated (all three stayed up last season) and there’s no reason why Burnley can’t carry their momentum over from last campaign, getting points on the board early.
Those who don’t watch the Championship might be surprised to hear that the Clarets will bring a brand of football that will be a breath of fresh air to the division, and it might take some of their peers by surprise.
This simply isn’t the Sean Dyche version of Burnley we last saw in the topflight.
They got promoted with 101 points, scoring 87 goals!
Vincent Kompany of course is the latest Pep Guardiola disciple trying to follow his teacher’s ethos.
Kompany likes his team to press, win back the ball quickly and be comfortable playing one-touch passing.
It’s what he experienced at the Etihad, but of course it’s uncertain if his young players can replicate that at the highest level?
The former defender hasn’t been able to turn all loan moves into permanent ones. That includes Telles who’s back at Southampton.
Some time this sport is about luck, being in the right place at the right time.
If the Belgian can keep the club in the division by playing with style, he’s in a good position to be the next Man City boss.
Brentford – 13th
It’s testament to Thomas Frank’s ability that Brentford will be without their best player for half the season, and yet few think that will lead to a relegation scrap.
It also highlights their positive PR that the Bees negotiated Toney’s ban to include preseason without much backlash. The Bees ethos won’t change, they will make chances due to their high press and continue to be creative at set pieces.
As I write this, they could be about to get a lot of money for Raya, so there’s still time they bring in another striker. Yet it would be very like Frank to get the best out of the resources he has and suddenly a Wissa or Muamba step out of Toney’s shadow.
It’s also Toney’s personality to return in 2024 and steer the club away from flirting with relegation.
Because of how well they have done, it’s forgotten this is Brentford’s third year in the topflight and eventually there will be a year where everything catches up with them.
So, if you lose your first-choice striker and GK, don’t underestimate a season of stabilisation.
Lose Tomas Frank and I would worry.
West Ham – 14th
I can understand why David Moyes is favourite with the bookies to be the first manager to be sacked.
I was going to write I’m surprised the Scot didn’t leave after the high of lifting a trophy but why should he walk away from a big pay off?
The 60-year-old has been in the sport long enough to read the room.
He knows majority of Hammers don’t like his style of football ,and that his employers feel they can’t sack the man who earnt only their third ever trophy.
David Sullivan might be simply waiting for one bad run to make the sacking.
You would be thinking that winning silverware in Europe would give the owner a chance to fix his relationships with his fanbase.
Yet the Irons are the only club in the Prem not to spend any money this summer.
That’s despite getting 105 million for Rice.
It’s been their strategy in the past to do business late, but it means they start the season with moral low.
They have also got to balance the Europa League which will be a priority.
Eventually they will have a new man in the dugout who will ensure they avoid any relegation fears.
Bournemouth – 15th
Was it ruthless to sack Gary O’Neil? Yes!
But it doesn’t mean long term it won’t prove to be the right decision.
O’Neil has every right in future job interviews to say he achieved his job specification, keeping the club in the division (may do that at Wolves).
Yet there’s a huge difference being a caretaker till the end of a season to being the permanent boss.
Replacing Parker, O’Neil could make the Cherries conservative as the ends justify the means, that was his best chance of survival.
Long term, it’s not how Bournemouth fans or owners want the club to play.
I admire Bill Foley for having his own plan and identifying clearly a long-term target in Iraola.
Like some of their exciting young recruitments from around Europe, it’s a gamble how the Spaniard settles into English Football.
Clearly his ethos and principles got him the job, but he needs time and patience to implement his ideas.
His employers need to stay strong during the bad moments and keep faith.
The spine of last year’s squad will be better a year on.
Notts Forest – 16th
I’m one of those who don’t give Forest as much credit that I would usually give to a newly promoted club for staying up.
They brought over 20 players seemingly with no long-term plan, leaving an imbalanced squad.
It’s been less chaotic this summer, but it had to be.
Their owner had the audacity on the final day of the season to boast he was one of the few owners to keep faith with his manager.
He considered sacking Steve Cooper a couple of times and resisted due to a fans backlash.
If he senses he’s in danger of missing out on the revenue of being in the Prem, he will consider the options again.
Forest will stay up due to home form.
Fulham – 17h
Did so well last season that in the end we almost took the job Marco Silva did for granted.
In reality this time last year many were calling Fulham one of the favourites for relegation.
It’s too easy to say second season syndrome but you do feel the Cottagers need to freshen things up a bit.
The club are so far denying Willian and Mitrovic big money offers from Saudia Arabia but what does a disgruntled Mitrovic look like?
Gooners know what happens if Willian isn’t settled.
There is talk that Paulinha /or Ward-Prows?) has been identified at West Ham as Rice’s replacement.
So, the majority of their spine has been linked with moves away.
Owners might panic the moment relegation becomes a possibility instead of staying calm.
Luton – 18th
There are underdogs and then there are Luton, not in the Football League 10 years ago.
Their first home fixture has been postponed as they struggle to make their ground suitable for topflight football.
That will be a sign of things to come as visitors will find travelling to Kenilworth Road an experience, you can generally see people’s back gardens from the stands.
On the pitch, it’s a manager and squad who might simply be out of their depth.
Yet it’s a uniqueness that gives them a fighting chance.
They know who they are, fans will stick by them, so in many ways the pressure is off, they have nothing to lose.
Think Wimbledon decades ago.
Like the crazy gang, they will be direct, lots of set pieces and long throws and on their day might bully opponents.
Wolves – 19th
Are there a duller side then Wolves?
They don’t concede many but don’t score many either.
They had a stat last season where a whole year had expired since a striker scored a League goal for them.
That’s almost impossible to do in professional football.
Their one ray of light is that Ruben Neves las left and the talk is they have to watch their finances.
Julen Lopetugui feels misled from what he was promised when he took the job last December.
He’s too good a manager to accept a club who seem to have stood still. That catches up with you.
Sheffield United – 20th
I know it’s easy to predict a promoted side to go straight back down but when you study Sheffield United’s situation closely, you realise what a task Paul Heckingbottom has to keep the club in the division. You sense the Blades know this themselves deep down.
It’s rare that a team starts in the Prem weaker than the one who left the Championship, having lost their top scorer and player with most assists.
Where a Forest chose to throw money at their return to the topflight, they haven’t really had that choice at Brammall Lane.
They are still trying to recover from financial issues based on their last time in the division and wherever they finish will be grateful for the revenue.
I give them a chance as there are benefits from the same group of players carrying over momentum and they can make their home ground a fortress.
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Tell me your top 5 and bottom 3 in the comments….
Dan