How bad luck has contributed to Arsenal’s poor league position this season

Not everything is Unai Emery’s fault, bad luck plays it part as well.

Arsenal is currently struggling for form in the Premier League this season, however, they would be very much in the race for a Champions League place had they gotten as much luck as some of their competitors have enjoyed.

ESPN used a Luck Index to calculate the points that teams would have had in the Premier League this season if they were luckier and it showed that Arsenal would have had seven more points if they had more good luck.

One of the games that Arsenal dropped points in, according to the Luck Index, was the game against Crystal Palace that ended in a 2-2 draw.

They claim that if VAR had not controversially ruled out Arsenal’s late winner we would have had two more points on the board.

Further, they add that the game against Sheffield United would also have ended with at least one point gained if we had not been denied a penalty when the game was still a scoreless draw.

OK, where to start.

Yes, Arsenal have been unlucky but I do believe things even themselves out over time and for me, this is just a distraction.

Truth is that we have not been good enough and almost every Arsenal fan acknowledges this. Sure, it is annoying when certain teams get the rub of the green but if you are good enough you overcome bad luck.

I am more concerned about how teams manipulate financial fair play and create an unfair playing field. Bad luck annoys the hell out of me and I will moan about it. But I will not use it as an excuse for how poorly Arsenal have been playing.

That is on the manager and players.


  1. many arsenal funs blame the coach but i think arsenal is going through a rough road due to player’s lack of confidence in scoring and in accuracy on the pitch they should all act like Saka.

  2. Luck is one thing but that Sokratis goal, that had nothing to do with luck, there’s no reason to cancel that goal out. Whoever was officiating the var that day should never be allowed to referee a match again.

  3. Luck has nothing to do with some of the bad decisions we’ve received this year, more like blatant bias would be more accurate and while Mike Riley maintains control of the officials nothing will change. To appoint a 19 year old Australian with a few Championship games under his belt to VAR, an official looking for a leg up in the game and desperate to please Riley, to overturn 2 decisions of one of our most experienced referees in Martin Atkinson during the Palace game says it all. One other point I’d like to make, the quote about decisions even their self out over the course of a season is the biggest load of rubbish that’s ever been spurted in the history of the game.

    1. Exactly.

      I don’t think anyone with good mathematical knowledge will say things even themselves out in mere 38 games.

      That’s somewhat like saying if you roll the dice 120 times, you’ll get each of the 6 numbers 20 times.

      And then there’s the conscious or subconscious bias in some referees.

  4. You know you are in trouble when you have to find comfort in your bad luck.

    I am sure we can also speak about how we could be third if it wasn’t for 3 personal errors of some senior players.

    Or how we could be in the CL if Auba doesn’t miss a penalty.

    We could go on and on like this.

    But I have to believe that most fans see that our current predicament has little to do with bad luck and more with a chronic case of bad manager.

  5. VAR has been implemented badly as far as I’m concerned.
    There is a screen for the ref to review the incident at every pitch side that has never been used.
    Each decision looked at remotely has been taking far too long.
    Whilst some of the decisions may be technically correct they are petty like someone’s armpit was offside ffs.
    A goal cannot now be celebrated until VAR has reviewed it.
    VAR is the worst thing introduced in recent years, or at least the implementation of it.

  6. The officials operating the VAR seem to be incompetent and biased in my own opinion, VAR has been the original instrument marring our season so far, but Emery also is a culprit

  7. Even if we had the luck we would still be 5th and still be playing shite football.
    We dont need luck, we need a manager and owner !……………….

  8. Indeed bad luck really account for our position right now but the players themselves need to build confidence in order to returns to winning ways. They’re very lackadaisical in the pitches right now

    1. He should be transported “for the term of his natural life”. Unfortunately that would be a reward, because the weather is so much better.

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