Is it confidence or delusion to believe in a top four finish?

Right now, before tonight’s games, Arsenal is six points behind fourth-placed Liverpool and with 14 Premier League games still to go that is far from an insurmountable gap.

Of course, there are a good few teams above us, some with games in hand and that makes the current positions false and that has been the case all season.

It is also correct to state that this season is like no other. No game is a guarantee any more, just look at West Brom who have taken points off of Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City and now Man Utd this season.

If Arsenal goes on a winning run, which is not impossible, then there is a very good chance that top four is still within reach.

Logic says that it is still unlikely that we will make the top four but then logic told us Liverpool would not fall away like a stone in water and yet they have.

Look at Spurs, they were top, a shoo-in for top four and now, they are not much better off than us.

I am not one for blind loyalty, I hope that I do read the situation with a realistic edge but neither I am all pessimism either.

I am not a fan of Mikel Arteta but I really hope that he proves all his doubters, including me, wrong and that we do go on a winning run and make ourselves competitive once again.

My confidence is not huge but I am also not being delusional when I say that I have not yet given up on a top-four finish, I believe it is still within reach and it would be wrong for the club to focus all its energy on just the Europa League.

There is still a real chance and nothing is beyond reach, just yet.

Yes, I believe, for now.

Tags Top Four

45 Comments

  1. Dan kit says:

    Less than 1% 🤔
    Until it’s mathematically impossible anything can happen as results this season have been all over the place ,we should know in the coming weeks as we have a tough run .
    Also if we hadn’t been robbed in the wolves game we would only be 3 points behind .

  2. Highbury Hero says:

    Six points from top 4 with 14 games to go if Mikel fail to get it he is not fit to be the manager. He should get fired immediately after the final whistle of the last game.

    Arsenal squad with proper coaching, are capable of challenging for the title not fighting for relegation.

    1. ThirdManJW says:

      So you obviously think Arteta has, at the very least, the fourth best squad in the league, and Arsenal were in a solid position for him to build upon on his arrival.

      Now that is delusional!

      1. Highbury Hero says:

        I don’t think, its a “fact” Arteta has the best squad if not on par at least to compete with Liverpool, Spurs and Manchester City. As a matter of fact I think our squad is better than Manchester United and Chelsea.

        1. Loose Cannon says:

          Look with what Mikel started the season with -Runar, Chambers, Socrates, Mustafi, Kolasinac, Elneny, Xhaka, Ozil, Willian, Laca, Nelson

          Bench : Luiz, Eddie. AMN, Willock, Bellerin, Injured – Martenelli

          A team full of players fit for a league 1 team, and you call these fellas better than Utd. or CFC?

          Good / decent players : Leno, Cedric, Gabriel, Holding, Tierney, Partey, ESR, Auba & Pepe. Sorry, these guys cannot play each and every match.

          Why was Jose, Brendon or Allegiri not interested in our job?

          How Mikel has made it top ten is a surprise! Top for seems to distant, top six can be a reality.

        2. jon fox says:

          HH, YOU ARE POSSIBLE THE SINGLE MOST DELUDED FAN ON HERE WHEN ASSESSING THE QUALITY OF OUR SQUAD. YOU REGULARLY VASTLY OVERRATE OUR SQUAD COMPARED TO OTHER TEAMS. Be careful not to bump into Mr REALISM. as you might become infected with that nasty disease of realism itself. That would never do for a fantasist like you!

      2. TH14-TW14 says:

        If it comes down to only about squad quality, clubs should not hire managers and just spend the most on the best players.

  3. Defund_My_Opinion says:

    This season, more delusion than confidence.

    If we beat Leicester and Man City then I’ll believe.

    1. Defund The Media says:

      🤣

    2. Grandad says:

      Well Martin, I think you will be proved wrong with regard to Arteta but it will be next season before we have real evidence of the long awaited upturn.That is not to say we will win the EPL , but we will be in contention for a top four place which is where we ought to be.This is a transitional season for us, and if we manage to finish in the top eight, I will be satisfied , particularly when injuries have denied us two of our best players in Partey and Tierney.We have managed to unload some under performers and with more to be replaced in the Summer window I am more optimistic than I have been for some time.

  4. gotanidea says:

    It’s almost impossible after we got five red cards and we also couldn’t get Tierney’s competitor in January

    1. Highbury Hero says:

      5 red cards lost us 10 games? So we were getting half a red every game? And were those cards given from revelation or the result of our player’s mistakes?

      How many games have we lost without red cards? Please enlighten me with facts.

      1. gotanidea says:

        The red cards demoralized the squad and we got a losing streak because of the low confidence. Had our players controlled their temper and minimized their mistakes, we would’ve been in a better position

        1. Highbury Hero says:

          If I remember correctly our run of defeats started before the red cards so it’s fair to say the red cards were the result of our losing not the other way around. Please correct me in that.

          1. gotanidea says:

            The losing streak started once we got the first red card

          2. Highbury Hero says:

            Does any team which gets a red card go on into a losing streak?

          3. gotanidea says:

            Wolves

  5. The Real Vieira Lynn says:

    It shouldn’t matter because if Arteta hadn’t messed up by pursuing Willian our ultimate goals shouldn’t be tied to qualifying this year anyways…of course if it were to happen, I’m certainly not going to complain, but if the objective was to reinvent the wheel here and build something that can viably challenge for titles and trophies in the foreseeable future we can’t get sidetracked by things that we’re clearly not ready for at this juncture

  6. Lokosoft says:

    M.A’s side is too inconsistent for me to be optimistic about a top four finish, I could barely see a EL spot at best, the team has real questions to answer considering the next few games and if those questions are rightly answered we might give EL spot a good shot

  7. Reggie says:

    We are good enough for top 4, we are way off that, disappointingly. We should be with this squad but aren’t.

    1. Reggie says:

      Sorry “arent good enough”

  8. Ayan says:

    I doubt we’ll even get even 10th position!. We are too inconsistent!

  9. Jah son says:

    If Arteta could have made the top four he would be in the running simple.
    I think a new and experienced manager in January would have given us a shot. But some would argue that’s not a rebuild.
    So I guess at lot of Arteta out are just anxiously waiting like myself to see a rookie build a top team and win against the like of Klopp and Pep in say 3 years time.

    1. Baba sagna says:

      Wasn’t Zidane a rookie who won three champions leagues!?

  10. Ackshay says:

    A 6pts gap with how crazy this season has been is not an impossible gap to overcome but for that to happen we HAVE to be consistent in the last 14 games remaining which is very unlikely. Too many pts lost for stupid reasons like red cards, own goals and a ridiculous wastefulness in front of goal.

    I will start to believe in our chances if we are still close to 4th place at the start of May.

  11. Kobin says:

    I won’t rule anything out. No one, absolutely no one saw Arsenal winning the FA Cup last season. Call it a fluke all you want, but we beat a then inform Sheffield Utd, the Fluid ManCity and the Pulisic led Chelsea to nick it. All of that is not luck. Its football.

  12. Kobin says:

    And besides it’s a crazy season, no team has been magnificent. Even City just came back in the new year.

  13. Twig says:

    Maybe if we picked at least 4 points against City and Leicester?

    1. Quantic Dream says:

      Ain’t gonna happen mate.

  14. Durand says:

    Teams above us have 1 or 2 games in hand and we’re already trailing on points. Getting into the top 10 should be a goal, Europa qualification just gravy.

    Forget top 4, this squad too inconsistent and attack too anemic to go on the sustained run we need.

    Just being realistic, haven’t seen anything this year to suggest otherwise.

  15. Quantic Dream says:

    I believe Man city, Man U and Leicester will make top 3 leaving only 1 free spot remaining. So we have Liverpool, Chelsea, Everton, Aston Villa, Westham, Tottenham and Arsenal all fighting for 1 spot. Hehe, not a snowball’s chance in hell we will make top 4. Even top 6 will be a miracle. We lose way too many games to hope for any consistency going foward. In fact, I believe we have 5 more Ls coming our way. The games vs City, Leicester, Liverpool, Tottenham, and one of Everton/Chelsea/Westbrom are all Ls waiting for us.

    1. Sue says:

      Spot on, QD 👍 We have a mountain the size of K2 to climb = no chance!!
      Better luck next season, hey?!

      1. Quantic Dream says:

        @Sue
        Unfortunately, I predict we will start the season as we have been starting most of them in the recent past, so poorly that all champions league expectations duly go out the window within the first couple of weeks. Bad performances will persist and the recent relegation fears may start creeping up. When everyone’s lost hope we will start winning a few games here and there and end the season grateful to be in midtable. All will be forgiven and Arteta will continue selling hope and finally with 1 year remaining the board will pretend to get serious and fire him.

  16. RSH says:

    Way too many other teams around the fringes of top 4 that are more consistent than us. I don’t see it. Arteta was far too late to get it right and get us over the early season run of awful form, where he almost got himself sacked. If he doesn’t have a strong start to the next season and we flounder about again, he’ll be out. He’s got to start being spot on with his decision making, and get it right in the transfer market.

  17. AFCam says:

    its a project , instant impact was not part of the deal. youll never win anything with kids?that kind of got poopooed some time ago.these kids and the ones to come in the summer will oust the oldies and be playing top class football for years to come. Have a little faith in the boss and the team , the improvement in players like saka has been nothing short of remarkable , just like sterling did under his coaching.
    top 4 this season? apparently bet365 are offering 20-1.worth a fiver in my book with this topsy turvey season

    1. ozziegunner says:

      You always have to follow the money and check the bookies odds. If bet365 is offering odds of 20-1, there must be a lot of optimistic Arsenal supporters out there, because on the current situation even given the number of points still available, the odds appear too short.

      1. jon fox says:

        ozzie, Bookies exist to make money.
        The odds they offer and the true odds are sometimes – as in this case – vastly different!
        TAKE IT FROM ONE WHO KNOWS ABOUT THESE THINGS. The TRUE odds against fourth are very much greater than 1 in 21.

        1. ozziegunner says:

          jon, I worked for my bookmaker uncle on racetracks in NSW and Victoria. You are taking my point; the true odds of Arsenal making the top four are well over 20-1, notwithstanding the bookmaker’s hedge. I couldn’t understanding 20-1 being attractive odds for any Arsenal punter.

  18. Innit says:

    Not enough games in front of us. We aren’t top 4 material imho yet. Also peaked too late

    But we could make Top 6

  19. Goonster says:

    I don’t see why people are stressing about finishing 4th, 6th or 10th.
    This season is already dead to me and all i care about right now is seeing more improvement and consistency in our play.

    Fluking 4th place like ee fluked the FA cup last season will mean nothing if we are still poor. We will end up not making it out of the CL group stages or embarrassed in the last 16 like we used to be.

    All I care about right now is the team’s consistency, improvement and a set goal they are working towards.
    Because right now I just don’t know what Arteta’s plan is. It seems like for a whole year he has been concentrating on the defensive side. Then he is gonna need another year to concentrate on fixing our Attack / offensive play? Then he might need another year to blend his defensive and offensive masterpiece together?
    🤔

    1. ozziegunner says:

      Goonster, Arsenal will have to play extremely well and other clubs to fall over to “fluke” 4th place.

  20. RW1 says:

    The short answer is no!! The longer answer is whether arteta has learnt from our better performances about what our best 11 is and plays it regularly enough to build familiarity and consistency .. sadly not I suspect … will he drop xhaka and bellerin for example when tiernay and partey are fully fit … will he drop Luiz for the holding gabriel partnership … will he find a way to give serious game time to martinelli? Hope I’m wrong but don’t see it happening

    1. OnceGreat says:

      Why should he drop Xhaka? He’s been one of the better players in the squad for the last 10 games at least.

  21. OnceGreat says:

    It is extremely unlikely, as we are to see at least 3 more Ls this season and some unlucky draws as well.

    As it seems that Liverpool won’t pick up form any time soon, we might even draw or win against them. BUT, I just can’t see us not losing against City, Leicester and CSKA London.

    Also, I don’t imagine we’d be able to beat Everton, scum, and West Ham – our direct rivals for the top 4, top 6. And we need 9 points in those games, which is impossible at the moment.

    Being top 4 is possible even with 13 Ls, though.

    spuds managed to make it in the top 4 with 13 Ls but they did it by winning 71 points. And that’s something we’d be crazy to hope for. Because that would mean losing just two more games and winning the remaining 12.

    And I can’t see us make it past 65 points.

  22. jon fox says:

    Statistically, our real chance of making fourth place is less than one percent. If you want to expect a less than 1 in 100 chance of happening, then go ahead. I do not ! I do hope but as a realist, I do not expect!
    Big difference between hope and expectation!

Comments are closed

Top Blog Sponsors
JustArsenal Top Ten UK Blogs