Dan’s Euro 24 Predictions – Group F
Portugal – 1st
My pick to win the whole thing.
A lot might depend how Martinez manages Ronaldo throughout the tournament.
Some have been saying the same since the Spaniard took the job, with the assumption the process of transitioning away from the 39-year-old had begun now he’s moved away from Europe.
Yet the manager did the opposite, with only two Portuguese players playing more minutes in qualifying and only Lukaku scoring more goals.
Sometimes in sport though you need luck which you can’t control, Portugal’s qualifying group being so soft that any big decisions could be delayed.
The same can be said regarding Group F, only in the knockout stages will we find out if Ronaldo’s lack of legs are costly and more importantly if he’s receptive to being on the bench.
It should be stressed that so far Martinez has found a compromise, Fernandes, Silva, Leao, Felix, etc, content to do the legend’s running, with the superstar only having to worry about what happens in the penalty box. This is emphasised by the captain not completing one cross in qualifying, only three dribbles and 10 of his peers managing more touches.
I think this is smart man management from Martinez.
He’s made his adopted nation more attacking without having to tactically rely on the Al-Nasr forward, which should be the case at this stage of his career. Yet he’s accentuated the positives and hidden the negatives.
In terms of converting a chance you still wouldn’t want anyone else but the top scorer in the history of the competition. No one has played in 6 Euros (he’s the only one to play 5), no one has scored more international goals, so he’s earned God-like status that even on the training pitch and dressing room means he can offer so much.
8-1 Portugal to be European Champions! You heard it here first.
Turkey – 2nd
Real Madrid and Juventus teenagers Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz, Serie A winner Hakan Calhanoglu, Roma defender Zeki Celik…Turkey have more potential match winners then their rivals to grab second spot.
Yet many were calling them dark horses three years ago and they crashed and burned.
You sense Turkey have been scarred by that experience and are more demanding that a repeat doesn’t happen in Germany.
That’s why their media were questioning should Montella be sacked after a couple of friendly defeats in March, harsh on a side who won their qualifying group.
They are tired of waiting for potential to be realised, so while recognising the young talent they have, past experiences make them fearful their players can’t handle the expectation.
That makes the Georgia game fascinating where all the expectation is on Turkey. That takes a certain mindset. In the past Turkey have frozen in those moments
Their media are expecting a comfortable win which could be enough to get to the last 16 but it’s a banana skin waiting to happen.
I just wonder if the pressure back at home is self-sabotage.
Midfield should be too strong
Czech Republic 3rd
A bit like Turkey, Czech Republic are under such intense pressure back in their homeland they might freeze, which is why I give Georgia an outside chance.
They are the only team at the Championships who are without the manager who got them to this stage.
Almost immediately after qualifying Jaroslav Silhavy resigned due to what he felt was an unfair level of scrutiny on his side having got through the group, losing just one game, having led his country to the last eight of Euro 2021.
The counter argument was with the players they have, their country shouldn’t be finishing below Albania and should be playing a more attractive style of play, beating so called lesser opposition
Those individuals include West Ham duo Tomas Soucek and Vladimir Coufal, German Champions Hlozek and Patrik Schick. Schick was the (joint) Golden Boot Winner three years ago.
Ivan Hasek immediately implemented an attractive brand of football with more young talent introduced and is yet to taste defeat.
Have the quality to compete for second spot but how do they cope with the pressure of being favourites to beat Georgia?
Georgia 4th
The most romantic story of the tournament as the 75th ranked side in the World compete in their first ever competition since becoming an independent nation.
Taking the emotion out things it makes a mockery out of UEFA’s current format.
Georgia finished 4th in a group of 5 teams with only 8 points. They are the only team to qualify with a negative goal difference.
The Nations League meant they got to beat Greece in a play off on spot kicks.
It means the country are in an unusual situation of getting to Germany despite only beating two teams in open play. It’s amazing how far beating Cyprus and Luxembourg can take you!
They do have a player who can provide that moment of magic.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia was Napoli’s star when they lifted Seria A. It’s hard to explain how much of a celebrity he is in his homeland, he’s like the David Beckham of Georgia.
It’s just how often they can get the ball to the 23-year-old. He has to play well for any kind of upset.
It’s a team over the years that continue to improve.
Might not be the whipping boys some assume (maybe against Portugal) and could even spring a surprise on their debut on the worlds stage.
Most likely a step too far for Willy Sagnol’s men who don’t have the experience.
Dan
1. Portugal 🇵🇹
2. Turkey 🇹🇷
3. Czech 🇨🇿
4. Georgia 🇬🇪
1) Portugal
2) Turkey
3) Georgia
4) Czech