Realistic full analysis Arsenal’s chances of beating Spurs for Fourth Place

Remaining fixtures for Arsenal, Man Utd, Spurs and West Ham.


Crystal Palace – A

Brighton. -H

Southampton. -A

Chelsea -A

Man Utd -H

West Ham -A

Leeds. -H

Newcastle. -A

Everton – H

Spurs -A (TBD).

Man Utd:

Leicester. – H

Everton. -A

Norwich. -H

Liverpool -A

Arsenal. -A

Brentford. -H

Brighton. -A

Chelsea. -H

Crystal Palace. -A


West Ham. -H

Newcastle. -H

Aston Villa. -A

Brighton. -H

Brentford. -A

Leicester. -H

Liverpool. -A

Burnley. -H

Norwich. -A

Arsenal. -H (TBD)

West Ham:

Spurs. -A

Everton -H

Europa league first leg (Lyon. -H)

Brentford. -A

Europa league second leg (Lyon. -A)

Burnley. -H

Chelsea. -A

Arsenal. -H

Norwich. -A

Man City. -H

Brighton. -A

If West Ham go past Lyon, then more matches.

Now let’s compare these teams’ fixtures.

Arsenal and Man Utd have 4 fixtures in common, Crystal Palace, Everton, Brighton and Chelsea. And of course, they play each other.

West Ham will play Arsenal, Man City, Spurs and Chelsea. It couldn’t get any tougher for them and with Europa league fixtures I say, we can all agree they will fall short. That leaves us with 3 teams: Arsenal, Man Utd and Spurs. No European football for these teams.

Now let’s analyse the fixtures.

Arsenal: they have six(6) away fixtures, but I can tell you the away games I think they will come out victorious. Southampton, Newcastle and West Ham. Yes, I said West Ham, for some reasons Arsenal know how to play West Ham. Newcastle the same thing. But Crystal palace we all know every time Arsenal play them away it’s either a draw or a loss. A draw with them is a good point. (I’m being realistic). Chelsea, like Liverpool or Man City, even though I know they are beatable, but they always nick it against Arsenal.( Fingers crossed on this). Spurs away is a derby game regardless which team is at home. So, the game will be decided on which team wants it more. (Fingers crossed a draw will be a good point for Arsenal).

Home games against, Brighton, Man Utd, Everton and Leeds. These fixtures are all winnable. Including Man Utd yes. Brighton and Everton though, if they are sucked in the relegation battle it’ll be very tough, but I feel Arsenal have the home advantage. Leeds is an expansive team; they don’t play to draw it’s either you beat them, or they beat you. So that’s it for Arsenal.

Man Utd: they have five(5) monster away fixtures, Liverpool, Arsenal, Everton, Brighton and Crystal palace. Again, if Brighton and Everton are dragged into relegation battle, we all know what Selhurst park and Goodison park are like. Brighton is also a tough place to go for big teams. Liverpool and Arsenal is a bonus point for Man Utd if they get any point of the 2 games.

Home : they have four(4) home games, Leicester, Brentford, Norwich and Chelsea. All are winnable. Chelsea at old Trafford is always a draw or a loss for Chelsea. So that’s it for United.

Spurs: they have four(4) away fixtures, Aston villa, Brentford, Liverpool and Norwich.

Villa and Liverpool I’m sure they will drop point in these matches. The rest is winnable.

Home: They have six (6) home fixtures

West Ham, Newcastle, Brighton, Leicester, Arsenal and Burnley. Spurs are not that strong this season at home. But these are all winnable games bar Arsenal, West Ham. So, this is all for Spurs.

Conclusion: I think on paper Spurs have the easiest of games and I think they are Arsenal’s only contender. You can’t rule out Man Utd though, but they are too inconsistent, and you can feel the squad is not united. Spurs have a manager who knows how to dig out a result when it matters, and they also have a big squad. So, it’s Arsenal against Spurs. I just hope for Arsenal’s sake the small squad can stay out of injury.

So, let’s sit back and enjoy the ride my fellow gooners. One game at a time. COYG


Tags Arsenal Man United tottenham West Ham


  1. 73 will be enough for top 4.
    Arsenal have 54 right now.
    Everton Leeds Brighton Newcastle Sotn Palace will be safe from relegation so have nothing to play for. 13 points minimum. 67 points.
    Key game. Man U (Home) 3 points. 70 points.
    Spurs Chelsea Westham. 1 win minimum. 3 points. 73 points.
    Spurs/Utd require an almost 100% record to beat us. Possible however unlikely

    1. I think 70 will be enough as both manu and spurs have dropped ‘easy’ pts this season. They have a max of 77 78 pts available, I see both of them losing vs Liverpool and at least 2 other fixtures. So 5 win and a draw for Arsenal should do it.

      1. If Utd lose to Liverpool their max is 74.
        If Spurs lose to Liverpool their max is 75.
        And so one slip and they are gone.

  2. Great analysis. I still think Spuds have the advantage over us, because they have one of best CFs in the world and have signed Kulusevski/ Bentacur

    If our attackers can maximize the slim chances to score as Liverpool did against us, we might get the fourth place. Unfortunately, we haven’t made an open-play goal from a very tight angle this season and there’s no towering CF on the bench either

    Keown said Spuds are the favorite and I agree with him. I hope our players stay fit during the international break

    1. Keown said Spurs are the favorite just to mount pressure on them. Its not what he actually believes.

  3. I believe top 4 will be decided before last 2 rounds of the Premier League.

    Spurs and United almost certainly will lose 3 or 2 points away at Anfield, we can count on that.

    The most essential games for us are Spurs away and United home. 4 points from these and we’re almost certainly in the CL.

    But for today, lets hope for a draw or W Ham win!!!

  4. Westham may shift their focus to the EL if they lose today giving us even more chance of beating them. If Westham did win the EL Man U could end up in the Conference league 🙂 So still could we.

  5. I think we still have chance to be in 4th place unless we are unlucky such as having many injuries or those mistakes that we used to do previously

  6. .Dont forget the ref .Our Swiss guy has lost his head at times.If h e had been rcd i the Villa game,the ES will be like a morgue .
    Lets keep our fingers crossed

    1. i feel like we have on more bad discplinary game left in us this season unforunately… mostly because we’re all kind of trained at this point to be let down i suppose lol

  7. Its between us and Spuds, who have by far the easier run in. The NLD could well be key, but I see them winning it. I cannot see us winning at Spuds Chelsea or West Ham. We will need at least 3 wins and draw away to Palace Newc Soton and Palace plus win at home to Leeds. I cannot see us maintaining that kind of form

    1. you;re better off supporting Watford or Norwich. I guess you;ve not been watching The Arsenal all season.

    2. We’ve been hurt and disappointed too many times these last 13 – 14 years but we must find belief and faith in this new young squad. They can do it.

  8. Would we have considered an away win at Villa an expected result or have been happy with a draw?

    I enjoy the speculation because there is a fun element to it. However, I would not bet my house on any of the predictions made by the majority of us on JA except those made by maybe the top 5 on Dan’s EPL game who have been so impressive thus far.

  9. Historically when we are playing like this we usually finish very strong.

    Any results other than the Spuds winning is good for us.

    Some how I think the toughest game left for us is Crystal Palace, that’s why am happy, its come early after the break.

    72 points will do the trick but remember its six teams playing for two spots.

  10. we have to win all our home games and atleast win two away games (am guessing Palace & Southampton) to get to 72 points

    Spurs too must win all their home games and also win atleast 2 away games(am guessing Brentford&Norwich) to also be on 72

    I predict it will all ball down to not losing the not London derby

    Or if any of the two sides can get anything from their most difficult away match. Chelsea and Liverpool respectively

  11. Since Spurs have a simple looking run-in compared to Arsenal, I fear that only injury to Harry Kane will stop them overhauling us to 4th. If Spurs had to win at Liverpool on the final day, then of course I would fancy us.. However, if West ham were to win the ‘Ropey’ 4th wouldn’t get you into the CL.

  12. arsenal have to pull off big results. It’s really going to come down to that. CANNOT lose to United, and can’t lose to spurs either. Beyond that, cant be dropping many points at all either. Chelsea loss is really the most we can take, and a draw or so. Spurs are capable of poor performances and have been hot/cold as well. But looking how things are going, Son and Kane are going to do what they usually do in the runup to the end of the season. Arsenal will have to be at their best and get some big results.

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