Arsenal has exhibited a ruthless streak in the Premier League during 2024, evident in their efficient conversion of expected goals.
Despite encountering struggles in the first half of the season with goal-scoring despite creating numerous chances, the team was encouraged to secure a striker capable of consistently finding the net.
Mikel Arteta’s squad has defied expectations by consistently finding the back of the net, even with established strikers like Gabriel Jesus often starting from the bench.
Currently, Arsenal boasts the best goal difference in the league and sits atop the standings on goal difference ahead of Liverpool.
This proficiency in goal-scoring could prove pivotal in determining the league title at the season’s conclusion, and the CIES Football Observatory’s analysis sheds light on teams making the most of their opportunities.
According to their findings, Arsenal leads the pack, exceeding their expected goals by 0.43 per game. The Gunners have scored 2.21 non-penalty goals per game, surpassing their expected goal tally of 1.78 per match.
Just Arsenal Opinion
This stat is remarkable and shows we truly are on fire in front of goal this term. Hopefully, it will be enough for us to win the league.
Life is good for us Arsenal fans right now
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Yes we have mirrored the champions in their ruthlessness and now we smell blood
Expected goals means nothing at all to me.
Either you score a goal or you dont, so what on EARTH is a so called “expected goal” supposed to mean!!
Its a meaningless stat and as it proven that we are far exceeding our “expected goals”, the term itself is nonsense!
I think the term originated in the stats obsessed US jon. Actual goals are what I believe in.
For each shot, they determine how likely it was to be a goal based on position, and historical data – it’s just probability. It’s definitely complex, but that doesn’t mean it’s nonsense or meaningless.
In terms of us outscoring our xG as mentioned in the article, it means our finishing has been very good recently, and/or the opposition goalkeepers have been poor. I think the former, for the most part.
I do question the true need for major efforts being spent on developing such complex methods as xg, though I suppose it’s valuable for these rich clubs in assessing themselves, opponents and potential signings – if I were so talented at stats and modelling, I’d hope to apply it to something more meaningful in the real world, but nonetheless, I don’t think it’s fair to dismiss it because I don’t completely understand it.