The probability of Arsenal winning the Premier league has shifted in favour of Liverpool

The Premier League remains a tightly contested three horse race.  Heading into the final stretch Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, but have not yet been able to separate themselves from each other.

The week started with Arsenal in first place, tied on points with Liverpool, but leading due to goal differential, while Manchester City trailed them both by a point.  Over the course of the week none of the top three have faltered.  Each of the title contenders played two matches and they all won with the exception of the head-to-head draw between Arsenal and Manchester City last Sunday.  Manchester City drawing at home, in a game they were favoured to win, could be considered a failing, but ultimately it is just an example of how little separates these three teams.

Despite the consistent play of the top three teams there was a shift in the title race standings and probabilities this week.  As a result of the Man City – Arsenal draw, Liverpool not only took the lead in the Premier League standings, but their Premier League title probabilities have shifted further in their favour.

Using a proprietary power rankings and simulation engine, Lucid Ideas simulated the remainder of the Premier League season 100,000 times and the results show that Liverpool ahead with a 50.5% chance of winning the Premier League title, while Arsenal have a 35.2% chance and Manchester City finish first 14.3% of the time.

Premier League Standings Probabilities (April 5, 2024)

With the big three each having eight games left to play and no head-to-head matches remaining there are two increasingly important factors in the title race:  1) the dwindling number of remaining matches, and 2) the current points gap.  Arsenal and Manchester City can only catch Liverpool if they slip up, with each game Liverpool wins the opportunities for a mistake are reduced and Liverpool chances of winning the Premier League title increase.  The best thing Arsenal can do at this point is to focus on what they can control, which is winning each of their remaining games.

Justin Lafontaine

Lucid Ideas is  Premier League data model which runs weekly.  It simulates the remaining season 100,000 times and captures the probabilities of the remaining season outcomes.


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Tags Arsenal title challenge


  1. Arsenal may down to third favorite by now depending on which pundits you speak to, but I prefer it this way, but hell could broke loose at Old Trafford tomorrow.

    A don’t know why but no teams plays Man city better than Wolves and Crystal Palace

  2. All three ‘tricky’ away matches are quiite definitely winnable (Tottenham, Man Utd, and Brighton). Partey is back and had a pretty decent outing against Luton. Odegard will be very pleased to have him back for sure. He plays way better with him than with jorginho in my opinion. Tomi also looks ready to scrap. Goals galore await in epl and also in the ucl. It’s kinda wierd having everyone fit at this stage. We might even see a certain Jurrien T back in this action packed run-in.

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