What is the money saying about Arsenal’s chances of silverware this season

We all know what they say about opinions, basically, we all have one and Arsenal fans are no different to any other group of fans, we are as tribal as they come and a good amount of them believe that we will win every tournament we enter.

That is natural and one of the reasons a particular club’s fans are not the best measure to judge a team’s chances of winning something.

The same applies to pundits, most of them cannot help but be biased, again, that is only natural but there is one section of society that is not biased and that is the section that risks its own money, the betting markets.

We all know about fans that put a couple of quid on their team at huge odds to win the league but that sort of money never moves the needle, it is big money that causes odds movements and nothing else.

Therefore, if you want to put opinions to one side and see the reality of your teams chances then checking the odds is the best way to go.

Of course, it is not fool proof and the markets can be wrong, sometimes spectacularly so, but generally speaking, the market does reflect a team’s real chances.

So, looking at the markets this morning I found the following.

Premier League – 5/2 second favourites, third favs are 33/1

Europa League – 4.1 favourites above Barcelona, Man Utd, Juventus and Ajax

FA Cup – 9/1 Joint second favourites with Liverpool

Now, think about those odds, 2nd favs for the league, 2nd favs for FA Cup and favs for the Europa League.

Anyway you dress that up, it is very impressive and I doubt that there were many realistic fans that thought this would have been at all possible before the season kicked off.

Arsenal is now a serious competitor on every level. Who says so? Not me, money is what is saying it and while some people can call us deluded Arsenal fans for believing we will win major silverware this season, it is clearly no longer just Gooners that are saying it.

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10 Comments

  1. I guess Arsenal will focus on EPL/ EL and take FA Cup lightly. If we can avoid Barcelona before reaching EL final, I think we could win it

  2. I’d say we were close to 33/1 before a ball was kicked. It is good that we have favor going for us, it’s another compliment to Arteta and the boys

  3. “Follow the money” doesnt always get the results, but as far as the League is concerned a five point lead is points on the board. The chasing pack has to lift performances and Arsenal has to fade away. The transfer window (and no injury to is critical players) are essential to maintain belief.

  4. I think the author shows a slight lack of understanding of how
    betting works.

    I’ve posted on this before, but it seems he either didn’t understand or didn’t read (although the latter would be verging on criminal for an admin on this site).

    Bookies’ odds.. let me say it loud and clear:

    Do not reflect the statistical expectation of any given outcome

    They are adjusted to make sure that the book makes a profit. This is often adjusted to take account of ongoing betting patterns, as they develop.

    Is anyone actually understanding this, or is it too deep for people on this site?

    1. IDKWIC, Writing as a long term pro bettor, I thoroughly understand how odds work and I ALSO CAUTION THOSE WHO DO NOT , NOT TO WASTE THEIR MONEY , UNLESS THEY ARE PREPARED TO LOSE FOR SURE. Bookies offer artful tempters which naive folk readily grab, oblivious to the remote chances of ever winning over a period of time.

      When I started betting , many decades ago, I first made a long term paper only betting study and educated myself about how betting markets work.

      ( Separately from all that , it is plain that JA has financial connection with certain bookies and is why JA often publicises betting sites and encourages betting.
      It ought not to, IMO!)

      That was in the days long before Betfair came along. But I use it now, almost always on long term markets in football, when I TRADE( buy and sell) odds that change, generally more slowly over a given period of weeks or, more usually, over months.

      For all but a tiny, tiny percent who have an iron discipline and a level of intellect to see dangers, betting is amugs game best avoided. I have many times said exactly THAT on this site.

      1. Jon, you are wrong. JA has NO financial connection with ANY bookie at all on a commercial basis.

        In fact, on this page, YOU are the only one that published the name of a bookie….

        1. Pat, Then please explain why you publish articles that try to encourage GOONERS to bet.

          And please do not insult our collective intelligence by denying you do exactly that!

    2. As I stated betting odds reflect where the money is going, not probability of results. Bookmakers cannot afford to gamble on results. They must “cover their bets across the book”; raise odds to attract bets, lower odds if favouritism is shown to certain teams (results) to deter more bets.

  5. Money is important, the players are important but there’s only one constant. A good manager. For some, Arsenal are punching above their weight. But it’s frightening to know that Arteta is EPL’s youngest manager at his first stint.

  6. If it is money that makes winning titles possible. But are Arsenal not getting enough money made available to them in the club:s’ transfer kitty? For instance, made available to them to do some targeted top quality incoming signings during the soon coming January transfer window who they’ve targeted to sign? So that they can sign at least 2 new top players they will need to help sustain their current leadership of the League that is seeing them currently on top of the table and remain there to season’s end.
    To thus subsequently win the Epl title, the FA Cup and Europa League Cup all trio big titles this season.
    But I think and believe it’s not only money that’s count that help enabled title wins. But Good management also count a lot as well. Because without good management to back up the money invested to enabled title wins. The money so invested will alone not help win titles. Likewise good management without enough money investment to backup good management in the transfer market to sign new and invest in youth players will not work.

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