What the stats tell us about Valencia and whether they can beat Arsenal

Valenica are now just three points behind Getafe in the race for a top four position in La Liga with two games to go and because they have a better head to head record over Getafe they just need to close that deficit.

Getafe’s last two games are away at Barcelona and at home to Villarreal, whereas Valencia’s last two games are at home to Alaves and away to Real Valladolid. In better words, Valencia has the easier run in.

So, Valencia is definitely occupied on two fronts right now, however, unlike us, they are not in the mood to have an end of season collapse as their 6-2 away win at Huesca over the weekend showed.

Only four times in La Liga this season have Valencia won by at least two goals at home, they have not been prolific scorers and while they have lost just twice at the Mestalla, they have drawn an incredible ten times from their 18 home games.

In terms of their domestic competitions, I am concentrating on La Liga only because their knockout tournaments are not really that serious, a bit like our domestic cups to be honest but worse.

They have won their three home games in the Europa League this season beating Celtic 1-0, Krasnador 2-1 and Villarreal 2-0, however that final result was after they had beaten Villarreal 3-1 in the first leg and so was more or less a dead rubber.

Point is that for Valencia to beat us by two clear goals and not concede would be for them to perform better than they have for most of the season at home in both La Liga and the Europa League.

They were in the Champions League earlier in the season before being demoted to the Europa League and they did beat Man Utd 2-1 and Young Boys 3-1 following an opening game 2-0 loss to Juventus but again, even those wins against limited opposition were not that spectacular.

Can Valencia do enough to knock us out, of course they can, but the stats show that the advantage is clearly with us and that Los Che will struggle to progress to the final.

Though, we may give them a helping hand if we replicate our recent league form.

Updated: May 7, 2019 — 9:48 am

27 Comments

  1. We will beat Valencia or draw with them and qualify for final because they don’t have what it takes to play like our last 6 opponents in epl. They are more of a technical side who likes to play the ball on the ground rather than use strength. This is why I believe we have a chance to el even against Sarri Chelsea in final if we are not sloppy.

    1. 👍

  2. If Los Che face Alex Iwobi.. the only time they see Baku will be a game against Qarabag 😂 we should progress but Arsenal never fill you with any confidence!

    1. Well hello Kevin… looking forward to Thursday? Me neither 😂

      1. Hello Sue oh the Brighton game has just left me wanting more 😂 we made Duffy and Dunk look like maldini and baresi 😂 I don’t even know what to expect on Thursday 😮

        1. Palace and Brighton have been crap at home yet brilliant away for a while

          1. Tinkering coach cause of the defeat

        2. 😂😂 I know right – Thursday can’t come quickly enough!!
          I’m expecting the worst (not that it can get much worse) so anything else is a bonus, right?
          Imagine if we do lose though?? Omg the uproar…!!!

          1. But just think if we win, we’ll still be in Europe in late may how often do we say that? 😃 Haha it’ll be toxic on here and your Twitter Sue 😀

  3. Perhaps Arsenal should not win EL, because they could be sandbags in next season’s Champions League

    I’d prefer Arsenal to clean their dressing room from the highly paid old underperforners and get better players first before re-enter CL

    1. The same fans that say we shouldn’t win the Europa league are the very ones who will be first to moan when we don’t win it. Name calling the players and coach and throwing a hissy fit, yet they’re the ones that wanted us to lose. I’ve never understood why a fan would want the club to lose a match just to validate their own sick twisted opinions and stroke their egos. Where do you think that money to “clean their dressing room” will come from without champions league football? Smh I swear some fans though…

      1. Please can you name and shame them. 😏😏😏

        1. Unfortunately I don’t have that time, but it seems like you’re ever-present on this forum and have nothing better to do than argue online, so go look them up yourself chump

          1. It seems you do otherwise you wouldn’t notice some fans want us to lose. And you won’t be here to argue against that if you have something better to do yourself.

    2. clear underperfomers and buy more underperformers. How are we gunna get better players if we don’t have UCL? I don’t see why we have to be in Europa League in order to clear players.

  4. …. How dare some fans say we should not win the Europa league in order not to enter the UCL next season just to clear some deadwoods and not embarrass ourselves? Honestly, how do some fans here think? How else do we clear the gross in the squad without UCL money or do some of us think that our dear owner will put a dime to get us players?

    … How do we even get elite players in the first place without UCL qualification? Even the Europa league trophy will also help us attract good players and break that fragile mentality in some of the players that will be here next season and hopefully put that fire in the players for the journey next season. We don’t have to win the UCL but the revenue it brings will enable us become better. The more we stay in the Europa league, the more revenue we lose. Tottenham is currently ahead of us and that will continue if we don’t qualify, yet some fans are afraid of some future thrashing that has yet to happen instead of looking at the big picture.

    ….We really have some weird people, Funny forum.

  5. Just get to the final and we have a chance. Whether it’s Frankfurt or Chelsea, they are both beatable teams and I think it would be 50/50 going in. Chelsea also have Kante out for the rest of the season if that ends up being the final.

    1. Hopefully the right Arsenal turns up at Valencia. With only a 2 goal margin and having conceded an away goal, Arsenal cannot afford to not turn up ready to fight hard for a result.

  6. ZambianGooner4evaEva

    The Gunners will lift the EL in Baku and make a return to the CL: This will mark the true beginning of the Unai Emery era. Can’t wait!

  7. Like I said before, I trust Unai to get us past Valencia and win the cup no matter who we come up against in the finals. This coach knows his onions in this competition, It’s like he was born for the Europa. Given his enormous experience and with a 3-1 first leg advantage, we can safely say we’ve got this in the bag.

    As long as we avoid the mistakes that let us down during the weekend, what mistakes? Leaving Iwobi in the bench, then we’re good to go.

  8. the stats said brighton had lost all their previous games against top 6 clubs … much good that was!!!!!!!!

  9. I can not comprehend “fans” saying either we can’t progress against Valencia or we should stay in Europa League

    1. We are leading 3-1. Valencia can still go through but we can also go through ourselves
    2. If we do then there is only one match left (Anything can happen in the Final)
    3. We NEED Champions League to attract Top Talent

    So lets get behind our Team in Europa League and give positive energy
    Remember Emery knows how to win Europa. He’s done it 3 times in a row. That counts for something

    1. Well I’m sorry I’ve had my doubts, but you can’t blame me! I was expecting to beat Palace & Brighton, because we were at home.. look how that panned out…
      Our away form has been diabolical…. we’re leaking goals like there’s no tomorrow! Half of the team seem to have a major blunder in them!
      Of course I want us to win on Thursday, but I haven’t got a clue which Arsenal will turn up… will they be up for It? God only knows…. it could be a fantastic night… but there are always doubts in the back of my mind… I can’t help it, just the way it is & it’s all down to our beloved team!

      1. foreverinourshadows

        That’s the problem with this team, not good enough for the CL, but let’s see what he does in the transfer windows, you can’t remove seven or eight of the rubbish we have because it will take too long to get them to gel, so we will be stuck with some of the dross, but I would like to see some of the youngsters given a chance, not Guendouzi, too lightweight, too mouthy, can’t run or shoot, needs to go on loan somewhere like Watford or Wolves, but I doubt if it would get it, too fragile for the PL, before you say he’s only 19, Cesc fitted in right away, so that is a flimsy excuse

        1. I do like Guendouzi, but I agree, he is too lightweight & dithers on the ball too long! He would benefit from a loan, for sure..
          There are so many that need to go.. but like you say, can’t all be done in one go.. thank god the window opens soon though…. and I’m intrigued to see what sort of players UE will bring in… I just hope it isn’t anymore 30+ Lichtsteiner types!

  10. foreverinourshadows

    If Valencia get an early goal, we will crumble, it’s that simple because we lack a spine or leadership, at the game against Brighton the crowd could feel we were about to score and Emery made three pointless subs and took the momentum out of the game his last twelve games have been a joke, changing formation, different line up, only Arsenal can beat themselves. Valencia were poor in the first leg because I believe they got their away goal too early, they could have been two nil up in the first ten mins. I am on the fence with Emery, so unless we see changes of attitude and leadership next season, he will struggle again against the lower teams, he has a lot to learn, but you feel he should have picked up something, but it was the same lack lustre we had under Wenger who has left the club in a right mess, whether Emery has the balls to lead this team, we will see

  11. @foreverinourshadows, I wonder if we watched the same match on Sunday, when did the changes came after seventy minutes of play? For more than 70mins we were looking about to score but never scoring rather conceded that awful equalizer. We had expensive spineless and lazy trio in M² – Mesut Ozil, Mihktrayan and Xhaka. Were they playing with the consciousness of those fighting for top four? Capital NO. Didn’t you see the hunger, fight and bite in Chelsea players against Watford away, did we show it against their ten men, though we won but we all know that we narrowly escaped. Those trio concentrated more on lazily tossing the ball around, side ways and dangerously backwards. My stake in that match is had Emry not done Wenger’s style of late subs and brought them in earlier Brighton’s defense would have caved in, their LW wouldn’t have enjoyed the free ride they had over Litchestner that senseless Xhaka deputised and gifted them that dreadful Pk. The subs were OK but very late.



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