Four games to go so what are our chances of finishing in the top four
There are four teams fighting for two Champions League qualification spots, Tottenham, Chelsea, Man Utd and us and now is as good as any time to play the who will finish top-four prediction game.
I will take our rivals first and predict how many points I see them getting based on their opponents current form…
v Brighton 3 pts
v West Ham 1 pt
v Bournemouth 3 pts
v Everton 1 pt
Finishing points 75 pts
v Burnley 3 pts
v Man Utd 1 pt
v Watford 3 pts
v Leicester 1 pt
Finishing points 74 pts
v Man City 0 pts
v Chelsea 1pt
v Huddersfield 3 pts
v Cardiff 3 pts
Finishing points 71 pts
v Wolves 1 pt
v Leicester 1 pt
v Brighton 3 pts
v Burnley 3 pts
Finishing points 74 pts
So, you can see I have Tottenham finishing third and Man Utd finishing sixth and it will basically come down to goal difference between us and Chelsea to determine who grabs that final Champions League spot.
We have a four-goal advantage over the Blues and that is just too many goals for them to overhaul us and therefore my top four predictions are,
3rd Tottenham 75 pts
4th Arsenal 74 pts
5th Chelsea 74 pts
6th Man Utd 71 pts
Of course, anything can happen still, that is clear after yesterdays shockers for us and United but I remain confident we will pip Chelsea to that final Champions League spot.
Let me know what your predictions are?
Chelsea just dropped 2 points, so much for your calculations
Chelsea drawing to Burnley has helped.
But we really need to win atleast 1 of the remaining away fixtures and draw the others!
Interesting predictions. I AM LESS OPTIMISTIC THAN YOU THAT WE WILL STAY UNBEATEN, GIVEN THE PLAYERS WE HAVE FIT AND AVAILABLE BUT CHELSEA HAVE JUST DRAWN 2-2 SO THAT IS TWO POINTS DROPPED. It may well come down totwo games. United v City and Chelsea v United. I have Spuds finishing third , United sixth and it is between us and Chelsea right now, I think. Odds then? My gut feeling is we might make it on goal difference , after tonights good news . THANKS BURNLEY. Love ya!
For what its worth this professional bettor now thinks , for the very first time this season, that we are going to make fourth place. Prior to tonight and Burnley drawing at Chelsea , I have never had us in top four at end. Even now I only give us a 55% chance, it is that close!
Agree with the analysis. But can’t rule United out if they manage to beat Chelsea. I don’t know who is going to get top 4 either. Spurs are really the only team I’m certain will be there. Arsenal love throwing it away and it’s possible we get nothing out of Wolves and Leicester. Draw in the United/Chelsea game would do us a ton of good. And City better deliver on a United thrashing in midweek.
… Chelsea just gave us a lifeline, although we still have the same Burnley to play away. This is getting interesting.
We shouldn’t have to keep relying on others losing though, that is the most frustrating thing!!!
If we’d won yesterday, I’d be feeling optimistic, but once again I’m the complete opposite!
Yes I know there comes a time when you have to rotate, but bloody hell these are professionals we’re talking about.. this is their job, to play football.. an hour & a half, 2 or 3 times a week, and I’m sorry but if they’re too knackered to do that, then they’re in the wrong job!
I’m sorry but yesterday has really p****d me off – another golden opportunity comes & goes… another 3 points dropped….. and to think we’ve got to go through it all again on Wednesday & probably in that disgusting green kit ? sigh…….
Exactly what am thinking! Now that Burnley shaved points off Chelsea, will we take advantage and beat Wolves? Probably not! If we are done another massive favour and Man utd beat Chelsea, will we take advantage and beat Leicester? Will Man utd even beat Chelsea after City romp them in their own backyard 3 days before? I don’t imagine the mood at OT will be oozing confidence after City are done with them.
The way things are panning out QD, I’m beginning to wonder if we’ll pick up anymore points!!
I know injuries haven’t helped, I mean we missed Rambo & Xhaka big time… but if you’re ok for the bench – bloody start them! There’d better be no messing about on Wednesday with the line up, as it’s going to be tough enough as it is!!
I bet Vardy will bang in 3 against us, Brighton will go from being pants to playing like Barcelona against us!!
I must admit I’m worried about Wednesday…. United will have a point to prove now, it wouldn’t surprise me if they put in a performance & beat City… obviously I DON’T want that to happen… it’s really tense ?
Arsenal will win against wolves, and we will Finnish above totem this season! mark my words!
Totally agree. We will beat Wolves. We will win the rest of our games.
Everybody thank Burnley…
What a goal by Hendrick!!
..many thanks Burnley – it was down to their generosity that we were catapulted into 4th spot after they put 4 past chelski – my worry is they could be in the mood to do the same to us if we don’t play with more intent and purpose…
Despite us dropping pts vs Everton and palace we still have our top4 fate in our hands. Arsenal, Chelsea, spurs and man utd are all dropping pts everywhere this season. I feel we will tremble till the end although a chelsea vs man u draw would give us another lifeline assuming we do our job.
MU getting knocked down by MC and the same MU winning against Chelsea.That’s the best scenario.The main rival here is Chelsea,not MU.
I’ve done some quick possible permutations about what we need other teams to do. Not counting Spurs because honestly, it looks like they will secure 3rd after everyone else bottled it this matchweek.
United finish the season with two very winnable fixtures, so if they win against Chelsea as well and get 9 points from their remaining games that puts them at 73 points.That forces us to get 7 points. Basically, we could afford to drop points only one more time. And if Chelsea do lose against United and win their remaining games they are also at 73. So 73 points seems to be the number we have to beat. If Chelsea beat United, then they can earn a max of 76. That forces us to achieve 3 wins/1 draw at best. Then down to goal difference. Not comfortable with that. It would be very much in our favor for Chelsea to NOT beat United. Losing to CP really screwed us over. If we lose to Wolves Wednesday i would say our chances of top 4 are essentially gone. A draw gives us just a sliver of a chance. Of course this assumes our rivals are able to win their “easy” matches.
oops, didnt mean this to be a response to antonioro
Have to play best 11 from now on. That’s why each team gets 3 subs; for tired players and tactics. If we muck up the EL, we’ll rue the opportunities lost like yesterday.
Perhaps hairdryer treatment is called for. I’d sit Mustafi for rest of the year and Elneny too. I’d rather see Suarez over Elneny in midfield ( since Arsenal spent all January chasing the loan).
I do not think we’ll make the top 4 given our recent league performances.
Newcastle (H) 2-0 Easy fixture that should be winning, and Newcastle were shocking on the day
Everton (A) 1-0 Awful defeat. Disgraceful performance, should have conceded at least 5 or 6
Watford (A) 0-1 Important win, yet another dire performance. Watford looked like they had the man extra.
Palace (H) 2-3 Shocking performance again! Palace deserved more.
We have been awful in our last 3 league games, and we have Wolves away next. I can only see us losing that game. I can only see us picking up 5pts from the last 12pts available, and I feel I am being generous, given our recent performances. EL is our best bet for CL football.
Wolves (A) Lose
Leicester (A) Draw
Brighton (H) Win
Burnley (A) Draw
My opinion is that Totenham will be 3rd, and other three teams will drop many points. I hope Arsenal to win at Wolwes and then will be easy otherwise what are you thinking ? If Burnly is capable to win a point at Chelsea why not to win a point or three of them against arsenal with Mustafi at defence. Wolwes is hard game , Leicester same , Burnly maybe little bit easy. It’s hard to say but maybe from last 4 games we will have 5 or 6 points maximum 7
If we do not make it to the top four after how poor Chelsea and United have been, then Emery has to go.
Who do you want replace Emery with?
Chelsea have a history of firing coaches all the time. That has not seemed to work flawlessly. United has also changed coaches since Ferguson left and that has not been perfect either. Perhaps the overall player capacity at a club matters as well.
What if we give Emey some time to build his team?
To me the major problem have been our lack of quality players. We have also not had a regular back line for large parts of the season due to injuries.
All things considered we are already better than last year.
And if we want to lay blame on someone, how many more points would we have if we remove all points lost due to Mustafis mistakes?
Suffermountain, just ignore JJPawn; you are not going to change his opinion, which based on his posts has been anti Emery since he arrived.
We must avoid defeat in this final stretch. At the very least draw Wolves, beat Leicester, Brighton and Burnley! Haha I know that is asking too much of that lot but I believe this is what we need to make it into the champions league.
I hope Chelsea lose at OT. However, if Chelsea wins, and they go on to win 3/3 of their remaining fixtures, we will have to rely on GD to edge them out even in our best case 3 wins 1 draw scenario. Come on Man utd, do us proud, we are all counting on you!!!
Battle For 7th means nothing if Watford win the cup, so Wolves and Leicester may ease up a little. But then again Battle For 4th also means nothing if Spurs finish 5th and win CL..
Spurs win CL….don’t make me laugh…..
Can we please GUNS be VERY POS++ive about gunners. We have serious matches and even a cup on our way, we might not need other players but the truth is we’ve no choice, we are just going to work with what we have. The are ‘ANTI-ARSENAL’ on media platforms they only expect failure from the guns. [WE ARE GUNNERS STRONGER THAN DIAMOND].
If we don’t fix up our team for next season, making CL will mean nothing without an improved squad.