World Cup 2026 Predictions Matchday 3 Groups A-G: We could lose some Gunners this week..

The final round of group-stage fixtures is upon us, and with qualification places, group winners and best third-place spots still up for grabs, there is plenty to play for across Groups A-F.

As always, Dan Smith gives his predictions and reasoning behind every game. Agree or disagree? Let us know your own predictions in the comments below.

World Cup 2026 Prediction League: Standings after Matchday 1

Group A

Mexico 1-0 Czech Republic

It’s good for the World Cup that all three hosts will be in the knockout stages.

Winning their group means Mexico will have home advantage up to the quarter-finals. When you consider they have lost only three competitive fixtures at the Estadio Azteca in nearly 60 years, that’s huge.

The Czechs will hope that their opponents rest key players on Thursday. There really is no reason for their manager not to.

I would love to see 17-year-old Gilberto Mora start.

Conceding a late equaliser to South Africa means the visitors have to chase a winner, and that could be asking too much.

South Korea 1-0 South Africa

I think at the start of the World Cup, if you had offered South Korea a draw against South Africa that guaranteed them runners-up spot in their group, they would have taken it.

They should have too much experience for their opponents, who at some point need to chase the win.

There seems to be a lack of imagination in the final third from Bafana Bafana.

Group B

Bosnia 3-0 Qatar

As predicted, Bosnia’s two goals so far have come from set-pieces, so whoever their opponents are, they would be targeting them in the air because it’s their strength.

Yet it also happens to be Qatar’s weakness.

If Canada were crossing the ball at every opportunity on Friday, imagine what Bosnia would do.

If they can score early, I think Qatar might lose their discipline like they did against the Canadians.

There was an accusation from the hosts that Julen Lopetegui’s team lost their temper and became over-physical. I’m sure they can bully Bosnia.

Canada 1-1 Switzerland

A point for Canada means they play in Vancouver in the next round.

Having, or not having, that home advantage could be the difference between winning in the knockout stages or not.

I would be amazed if Manzambi and Vargas don’t start on Wednesday.

Struggling to score in open play at that point, Switzerland will hope that double substitution is their turning point at this World Cup.

That happened four years ago to Argentina when they brought on Fernandez and Alvarez in their second game and never looked back.

Group C

Brazil 2-1 Scotland

There is still a high chance that Scotland can lose on Wednesday but still qualify out of their group for the first time in World Cup history.

The problem is that after they play Brazil, there are still nine groups left to complete.

I’m sure Steve Clarke would have preferred knowing what he needs to do to at least guarantee being one of the best third-place teams as a worst-case scenario.

Opta stats say that a side left with three points and a minus-one goal difference has an 84.2% chance of reaching the next round.

That drops to 69.4% if the goal difference is minus two, while statistically you have only a 47.3% chance of reaching the knockout stages if your goal difference falls to minus three or worse.

It would be disheartening if the Tartan Army played for a narrow defeat, but that is the issue with FIFA’s new format.

I sense they will give Carlo Ancelotti a scare.

If Raphinha’s hamstring injury is serious, that could be costly at the business end of the tournament.

Morocco 3-0 Haiti

How comfortably Morocco win might depend on what is happening elsewhere.

With the other Group C fixture kicking off at the same time, the African champions will be aware of how realistic it is to win the group.

There has been a sense in both their games so far that they have been happy to protect what they have and reserve energy.

If they hear Brazil are not leading, or not winning by a big margin, they might chase goals in the second half.

Group D

USA 1-1 Turkey

Hard to predict because it’s not clear if either manager will make lots of changes due to this game not changing the fate of either nation.

Some have blamed head-to-head records being a tiebreaker, making this match a dead rubber.

In reality, FIFA’s format means you can finish third in a group of four teams and still be in the last 32 of the World Cup.

After 72 fixtures, only 16 countries get eliminated, so it’s almost harder to get knocked out.

There comes a point where you can’t have your hand held any longer.

It’s not that Turkey have played badly.

They have had over 60 shots in their two games but have just not had any luck in the final third.

It would almost be cruel if they suddenly find the back of the net on Friday.

Paraguay 1-0 Australia

This is one of the hardest fixtures to predict, but both teams have something to protect, which is their preference.

Paraguay are the ones who need to win if they want to finish runners-up in Group D, yet they will know a draw is 99.81% likely to be enough to secure one of the best third-place spots.

So if this is level with 15 minutes to go, neither manager has much incentive to take risks.

A point suits both and achieves their target of reaching the last 32.

Tactically, it might be fascinating to watch.

Group E

Ecuador 1-1 Germany

You sensed after their 0-0 draw with World Cup debutants Curacao that Ecuador are not quite comfortable in the role of being favourites.

Their record in qualifying suggests they prefer to be the team that is hard to break down and likes their opponents to have the initiative.

The issue is that on Thursday they have to win, and their body language at full-time on Saturday wasn’t that of a squad who still believe their destiny is entirely in their own hands.

The only hope for the South Americans is that Germany have already won the group.

Will Germany play a weakened side?

Ivory Coast 2-0 Curacao

Eloy Room made a World Cup record in 90 minutes with 15 saves on Saturday.

Incredible, considering the goalkeeper had conceded seven goals less than a week earlier.

Against Germany, Curacao were accused of being naive as they insisted on throwing bodies forward.

At the weekend, Dick Advocaat changed his tactics to a much more organised system.

So it’s hard to know how the manager approaches Thursday.

Especially as they can qualify if they win, meaning they will eventually have to attack.

His squad physically and emotionally gave so much against Ecuador.

Can they repeat that effort just a few days later?

Law of averages says surely if they concede the same number of chances to Ivory Coast, they won’t get away with it again.

Group F

Netherlands 3-1 Tunisia

It’s hard to think of a fixture at this World Cup where two teams are in more contrasting moods than these nations.

The Dutch are guaranteed to be in the knockout stages, while the Tunisian Football Federation felt obliged to sack their manager one game into the group stage after reports of a dressing-room dispute and further problems at the team hotel.

Herve Renard has been brought in until the end of the tournament to do nothing else but organise a defence.

In that sense, the 57-year-old has nothing to lose and everything to gain.

This is the man who beat Argentina four years ago, but he has had little time to work with his new squad.

Sweden 2-2 Japan

The most devastating aspect for Sweden at the weekend wasn’t simply losing to the Dutch.

The 5-1 scoreline wiped out a goal difference that would have been enough to, at worst, secure one of the best third-place finishes.

Graham Potter will earn his money by lifting morale in the space of a few days.

The only positive is that he has a squad that has dealt with adversity throughout this World Cup campaign.

The manager is right to point out that there isn’t a lack of confidence in attack.

This suits Japan though.

They don’t need to win, so essentially they can sit in and hit on the break.

Dan

What do you make of Dan’s Matchday 3 predictions for Groups A-F? Which results do you agree with, and where do you think there could be a surprise? Let us know your own predictions in the comments below.

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