A possible scenario to this season’s premature termination by Sean
I won’t make this a long one. In light of the controversy with the decision by the Dutch FA, I thought this might represent a good solution to the dilemma facing domestic leagues around the world. This season’s total points will equate to a points handicap at the beginning of the 2020-21 season.
Basically, I’ve set a handicap ranging from -10 to 10, which would represent the points that each team would start with (although this could easily be -5 to 5, or -20 to 20; a range of 20 just seemed to offer a fair reflection without giving teams too much of an initial battle). Next, I set out a points range from most to least points (61 rounded down to 60) and allotted -1 handicap for every three points (60 points/20 teams) away from Liverpool’s haul of 81. So, while Liverpool gets the full +10 handicap, Man City at 57 points only get a handicap of +2 (rounded to the nearest 0.5).
The results below would reflect my proposed starting handicap for the beginning of next season. It means that successful teams in 2019-20 get a small head start in 2020-21 and vice versa for the bottom teams.
The downside, of course, is that next season’s final standings would not just reflect that season’s performance, but also that of this season. My response would be that special times call for special measures.
Another complaint would be that sides finishing in European qualifying spots this season, and likewise teams in lower leagues in line for promotion, would not be able to qualify. As the main concerns here are financial, my solution would be to take a tenth of expected revenue from that position (say, prize money + expected TV revenue) away from teams competing, and award it to those teams who finished this season in those spots. For example, 10% of Prem prize money and TV revenue would be taken away from 2020-21 prem teams and allocated to Leeds, West Brom and the rest finishing in play-off spots (with Leeds getting the most, West Brom next most and so on). This means that Arsenal would have to give up 10% of their European revenue and divide it among 5th-8th placed teams.
Another issue would be games in hand. Not too sure what a fair resolution would be here. Perhaps mean (average) points from the last five games added to final points total?
| League Position | Weighting | Handicap | 2019-20 Points | Team | 20-21 Handicap | |
| 1 | 81 | 10 | 82 | Liverpool | 10 | |
| 2 | 78 | 9 | 57 | Man City | 2 | |
| 3 | 75 | 8 | 53 | Leicester | 1 | |
| 4 | 72 | 7 | 48 | Chelsea | -1 | |
| 5 | 69 | 6 | 45 | Man Utd | -2 | |
| 6 | 66 | 5 | 43 | Wolves | -3 | |
| 7 | 63 | 4 | 43 | Sheff Utd | -3 | |
| 8 | 60 | 3 | 41 | Spurs | -3 | |
| 9 | 57 | 2 | 40 | Arsenal | -4 | |
| 10 | 54 | 1 | 39 | Burnley | -4 | |
| 11 | 51 | 0 | 39 | Crystal Palace | -4 | |
| 12 | 48 | -1 | 37 | Everton | -5 | |
| 13 | 45 | -2 | 35 | Newcastle | -5 | |
| 14 | 42 | -3 | 34 | Southampton | -6 | |
| 15 | 39 | -4 | 29 | Brighton | -7 | |
| 16 | 36 | -5 | 27 | West Ham | -8 | |
| 17 | 33 | -6 | 27 | Watford | -8 | |
| 18 | 30 | -7 | 27 | Bournemouth | -8 | |
| 19 | 27 | -8 | 25 | Villa | -9 | |
| 20 | 24 | -9 | 21 | Norwich | -10 | |
| 21 | -10 |
And just because I’m a massive geek, I thought I’d make a cheeky graph to visualise just how big a difference there is between Liverpool and the rest (but Admin can’t copy it over)
Interested to hear thoughts from anyone who made it to the end without being utterly confused. Also, happy to answer methodology questions for fellow geeks/statistically curious Gooners.
Sean M