Premier league points table analysis by Nikhilesh
Hello gooners! As the premier league season is about to start, I thought why don’t I analyse Arsenal’s chances in the top 4 or above. I’ve analysed the PL points table from the past 15 seasons beginning from “The Invincibles” season till the previous season and as per that analysis from an arsenal point of view, to finish in the Top 4 we must get at least 80 points. In the 2016-17 season for the first time a team having 75 points could not make it to the Top 4 and it was Arsenal unlucky again. The past two seasons have raised the bar for the no. of points to finish in the Top 4, between 2003-16, teams finishing 4th crossed 75 points only on two occasions i.e. 2007-08 (Liverpool-76points) & 2013-14 (Arsenal-79 points), but in the last two seasons 2016-17 & 2017-18 Liverpool have finished 76 & 75 points respectively, I personally feel that we can finish at 80 points and if we are lucky enough and a scenario of 2010-11 (Manchester United) or 2015-16 (Leicester) repeats we might even end up with a PL Title. To finish at 80 points we must improve our poor away record & defending and also maintain our amazing Home record, I will take anything less than 38 goals conceded and 30 or above away points for a start. Realistically our season might end up something like this
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Vs. Top 6 |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Win |
Draw |
Loss |
Matches |
Points |
|
Home |
3 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
10 |
|
Away |
2 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
7 |
|
|
5 |
2 |
3 |
10 |
17 |
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|
|
|
|
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Vs. Others |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Win |
Draw |
Loss |
Matches |
Points |
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Home |
11 |
3 |
0 |
14 |
36 |
|
Away |
8 |
3 |
3 |
14 |
27 |
|
|
19 |
6 |
3 |
28 |
63 |
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Overall |
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|
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Win |
Draw |
Loss |
Matches |
Points |
|
Home |
14 |
4 |
1 |
19 |
46 |
|
Away |
10 |
4 |
5 |
19 |
34 |
|
|
24 |
8 |
6 |
38 |
80 |
The gap between 3rd and 4th place is not as huge as much as it was in 2003-09 seasons, 4(2003-04, 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2008-09) out of the 6 seasons the gap was in double digits, but the seasons after that the gap was never more than 5 points meaning a third place finish is definitely on the cards if we finish our season at 80 points.
The last time we had 35 or above away points were in 2012-13 and 2013-14 and the reason according to me was the Koscielny-Mertesacker partnership when they were at their peak and their DM was Arteta and they had a better RB in Sagna. Today we have a better DM but a not so good (at least by the looks of it) CB pairing (probably Sokratis Papastathopoulos and Shkodran Mustafi) a good RB in Stephen Lichsteiner, LB is the only area we are better than before. In season 2013-14 though we conceded 41 goals, it doesn’t show the entire picture. Except the away games against the Top 4 (Manchester City, Liverpool & Chelsea) we conceded 24 goals in 35 games which I feel was a very good performance, it could have been better if we had planned better for those 3 away games. If we can pull off a performance similar to 2013-14 (Except those away games of course!) then there is no way that we can finish below 80 points. Regarding the planning for away games, there is no doubt that the new management team more than capable than the previous man in charge. I feel we will concede around 30-35 goals this season, which will be an improvement over the last season’s 51.
Please refer the extracts of the Premier league points table over the last 15 seasons to get better understanding of the article.
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Season |
Position |
Arsenal Position |
Arsenal Points |
||||
|
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
||||
|
2003-04 |
90 |
79 |
75 |
60 |
1 |
90 |
|
|
2004-05 |
95 |
83 |
77 |
61 |
2 |
83 |
|
|
2005-06 |
91 |
83 |
82 |
67 |
4 |
67 |
|
|
2006-07 |
89 |
83 |
68 |
68 |
4 |
68 |
|
|
2007-08 |
87 |
85 |
83 |
76 |
3 |
83 |
|
|
2008-09 |
90 |
86 |
83 |
72 |
4 |
72 |
|
|
2009-10 |
86 |
85 |
75 |
70 |
3 |
75 |
|
|
2010-11 |
80 |
71 |
71 |
68 |
4 |
68 |
|
|
2011-12 |
89 |
89 |
70 |
69 |
3 |
70 |
|
|
2012-13 |
89 |
78 |
75 |
73 |
4 |
73 |
|
|
2013-14 |
86 |
84 |
82 |
79 |
4 |
79 |
|
|
2014-15 |
87 |
79 |
75 |
70 |
3 |
75 |
|
|
2015-16 |
81 |
71 |
70 |
66 |
2 |
71 |
|
|
2016-17 |
93 |
86 |
78 |
76 |
5 |
75 |
|
|
2017-18 |
100 |
81 |
77 |
75 |
6 |
63 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Points |
89 |
82 |
76 |
70 |
|
74 |
|
|
Highest Points |
100 |
89 |
83 |
79 |
|
90 |
|
|
Lowest Points |
80 |
71 |
68 |
60 |
|
63 |
|
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|
Season |
Position |
Arsenal Position |
Arsenal Points |
||||
|
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
||||
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2003-08 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Points |
90 |
83 |
77 |
66 |
|
78 |
|
|
Highest Points |
95 |
85 |
83 |
76 |
|
90 |
|
|
Lowest Points |
87 |
79 |
68 |
60 |
|
67 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Points |
87 |
82 |
75 |
70 |
|
72 |
|
|
Highest Points |
90 |
89 |
83 |
73 |
|
75 |
|
|
Lowest Points |
80 |
71 |
70 |
68 |
|
68 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2013-18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Points |
89 |
80 |
76 |
73 |
|
73 |
|
|
Highest Points |
100 |
86 |
82 |
79 |
|
79 |
|
|
Lowest Points |
81 |
71 |
70 |
66 |
|
63 |
|
My prediction 63 pts -67pts
5th -6th place finish
Transfer window not good enough
It is a tedious exercise to predict where we might finish when the season has not even started, this discussion should be saved for mid season imo…
Which team do you support?
And what makes you think buying so many expensive and big name players guarantees success?
Our problem wasn’t 100% to do with the players we have, it was so many different factors which resulted in poor results.
I believe with the team we have, we can finish higher than you predicted, but I guess that’s just an opinion as well.
So my point is, we need to just have patience but not be negative without any proof yet.
This wi Dow has been a shame.Unlike many people I felt our team wasn’t that far away from competing.What we really mainly needed for the 2018/19 season was a new coach and quality system of defence.
The Sokratis signing was a very very poor one.I don’t care if Sven was the one who brought him in.You can say he knows more than me but even he isn’t perfect with respect to judging a transfer.I too have also made mistakes in my life.None of our CB’s are good enough.However,I haven’t seen much of Mavropanos so can’t say much about him.If only we had addressed that issue then I felt we could compete for the title because since Emery came the mentality is stronger and that’s where our problems have always been.Also,Mustafi is easily our best defender currently and I didn’t care if Chambers stayed or was sold.He’s done nothing of note to tell me he will be a top class player.Just the usual hype.We are good on the front but average at the back.Hoping Mavropanos really steps up big time because in hindsight he may be our real hope.
…one of Sokratis’s clearances might find Auba!
I commend the author for the research and analytical approach. However not sure I can agree with Arsenal getting 80 points. Too many ifs, injuries, combined with new coach, new training and tactics, and how players respond.
How do the coach and players handle disappointment? Will competition decide lineup or coach predetermined to certain players?
I’d rather focus on improving away form, improving results against top 5 teams, and improving the piss poor defending that has undone the squad last couple years.
That’s what matters I believe, the points will take care of themselves.
?
my prediction 3rd place and a europa win…
Will Be 4th Why Im Saying This Is Because Now Weve Got Players In The Mid Who Can Help Our Defence At The World Cup I Watch Torreira Stop Ronaldo Sokratis Is Good His Only Slow So He Been With Another Cb Will Help Trust Me Will Be Better This Time Around
I personally think we will finish 5th, but I honestly have no idea because of the new manager. On one hand Emery’s inherited a complete mess, on the other hand, he can rest his star players for the majority of the EL given how weak the opponents are, which will help in the league. Our rivals have either strengthened, or maintained their squads, but so have we. We’re much stronger, and what people forget, is that our key signing is Emery.
I think arsenal have caused there own problems people started complainting about arsenal Beeding a winger when they thought arsenal have plugged there gaps…Never hard about wingers until we signed toriera. …fans Not happy because transfer was done early if arsenal signed 2 and delayed the rest for the final day of the transfer fans Would have been buzzing…
Some weeks ago everyone was praising our transfer then suddenly it’s a bad windows. .. People won’t stop to amuse me I saw peoples predictions of how the table will look like come next may…I saw that many times before and wait who predicted Leicester winning the league…even emry never taught Monaco stood a chance to win the league from him 2 seasons ago……
People should learn to relax criticise when you have to and support When you need to…Some people will always not have there own mind But follows What others say blindly the talk shifted from arsenal needing a dm to arsenal needing a GK to arsenal needing a cb to arsenal needing a winger if arsenal had got one who knows where else u Guys will redirect
Probably it would have shifted to signing a new ball boy…
Arsenal fans especially on this site never cease to amaze me
It is really so hurtful to listen to some arsenal fan than sit next to them. Some said arsenal spent 1.6m less than what Chelsea spent on 1 player. A goalkeeper no one knows. We heard how lukaku and Morata were going set EPL ablaze last season. One was lucky to score two goals more than Lacazette and other was 3 short despite he was out for 2 monhs. Like someone said buying players doesn’t translate to winning anything and paying over the odd for players doesn’t make you ambitious but desperate. There can only be one winner at the end of each season. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try but we should try reasonably. At end of the day we all know the price of these players but don’t know their worth. Will anybody says Jorginho worth 60m after watching him in CS or Guandouzi not worth more than 8m with how he had played so far. Nobody knows anything, saying we will finish 4th, 5th, 6th and/or 8th is ridiculous.
?
Well said Mobella ?
I predict a 4th place finish, Europa league cup and a much feared and transformed Arsenal than what we’ve recently gotten used to. We really have a formidable attack and I think it’s gonna become even more deadlier under emery. The defense is above average but wenger did built this to be a very attack oriented squad, we have the players to outscore instead of to outplay or to grind out results. the midfield will determine our season, I’m optimistic about the changes taking place in that area of the field and I believe this season will be a stepping stone to greater things in future. Can’t remember the last time I’ve been so excited about my club 🙂
My opinion is 5th place ahead of chelsea
Liverpool will win their first PL
1. Liverpool
2. City
3. United
4. Spurs
5. ARSENAL
Honestly without Torreira this summer window would have resembled a typical Wenger summer window.
…a typical Wenger summer window.
* Ozil
* Alexis
* Laca
* Auba
.
Any player of that caliber this window?
I cannot believe the negativity around here
Please…The spuds above us
They have a decent squad but the long season will catch up with them for sure…not added to the squad that will be telling in the long run.
I have already said it before on here
We had one of the best home records last season
If we improve on are away record which we will do then we will there or there abouts
As it stands right now before the ball is kicked for the new season we stand top of the table ?
We have added to the squad in key areas where it was required
Decent buys and now let’s roll the dice and see how we get on
?
Emery has inherit a squad with strong midfield and lethal attack
if he can stregthen the defense with cb dm etc….we will be good
the team has settled, had a good rest and pre season..we will and should do well
That midfield was sh*t before Guendouzi and Torreira’s acquisition…
Just hope emery’s tactical nous gets into the players especially on our away form, and we are good to go
Whether this is your data
or not Nikhilesh
I like this kind of analysis.
I agree with almost all of your analysis.
However i would make slight adjustments.
I believe the league will be much more even this term.
I reckon 81 will be enough to win it
Winner
Home W14 – D2 – L3 =44
Away W11 – D4- L4 =37
Total 81
My top 6 is
United 81
City 77
Arsenal 76
Liverpool 76
Spurs 74
Chelsea 72.
Arsenal
Home 14 – 3 – 2 = 45
Away 9 – 4 – 6 = 31
Total 76
Is this group even for arsenal fans?The amount of negativity in here is worrying. I hope after we beat city non of you will come back saying how suddenly the squad is good enough to challenge.
Personally I’m buzzing, can’t wait,I know we are going to challenge.
Changing the coach was all we needed to do, the players we have are talented enough to challenge.
You look at the games we lost and points dropped unnecessarily last season under Wenger and you’ll see we have a better shot.
I also think Arsene makes the Top 5 for unluckiest humans ever, than home loss against Man u last season was just bad luck.
COYG
?
Exactly, I agree 100%
Wenger didn’t manage the squad mentality (always made excuses for them being mentatility tired or confidence is low, instead of fixing the issue, he left the team to sink – father figure etc) and tactics was non-existent, no Defensive Midfielder.
Now we have a new coach (Winner unlike Poch next door).
We have talented players.
We have great fans (we just need to feel excited again, which will happen).
We have a great stadium (unlike the neighbors toilet and blue shack).
We still have 4 trophies to fight for (including a European one – in your face Tim Sherwood).
All we need to do now is be patient and all of the above mentioned needs to gel and work together.
#WeAreTheArsenal #COYG
Manchester City has the strongest squad and best coach. The most that teams like Liverpool, man u, chelsea, Totenham and Arsenal can hope for is top four and even a top six finish nowadays is an achievement. Anybody expecting more than that is deluded.
Uche!
Didn’t I read a comment from you the other day calling everyone negative!
I’m saying THIRD!
Uche, it will not be easy for Man City this season as it was last season. For one, Liverpool and Man Utd have figured out City’s tactics under Guardiola. In four meetings against Liverpool, the Scousers won thrice and lost one. Even in that game, one could argue that the red card to Mane did Liverpool in. In two meetings against Man Utd, they won one apiece.I believe more teams are going to fashion out tactics that will stifle Man City’s play this season.
Arsenal get 80 points, i’ll be amazed if they do but i doubt it.
I am so suddened by this window only for one reason. Why didnt arsenal go for KOVACIC because as i have said time and again, arsenal’s weakest link is the central midfield not the defence as most fans and pundits want you to believe because we have no one except Iwobi who can dictate play in midfield.
Now you are going to here it from me…..
Chelsea with KOVACIC are simply going to take the league because NO team is going to boss them in midfield…. MARK MY WORDS….. WE made a grave mistake in not signing KOVACIC.