In-Depth Analysis of Arsenal’s EPL record and where we could finish with 80 points

Premier league points table analysis by Nikhilesh

Hello gooners! As the premier league season is about to start, I thought why don’t I analyse Arsenal’s chances in the top 4 or above. I’ve analysed the PL points table from the past 15 seasons beginning from “The Invincibles” season till the previous season and as per that analysis from an arsenal point of view, to finish in the Top 4 we must get at least 80 points. In the 2016-17 season for the first time a team having 75 points could not make it to the Top 4 and it was Arsenal unlucky again. The past two seasons have raised the bar for the no. of points to finish in the Top 4, between 2003-16, teams finishing 4^th crossed 75 points only on two occasions i.e. 2007-08 (Liverpool-76points) & 2013-14 (Arsenal-79 points), but in the last two seasons 2016-17 & 2017-18 Liverpool have finished 76 & 75 points respectively, I personally feel that we can finish at 80 points and if we are lucky enough and a scenario of 2010-11 (Manchester United) or 2015-16 (Leicester) repeats we might even end up with a PL Title. To finish at 80 points we must improve our poor away record & defending and also maintain our amazing Home record, I will take anything less than 38 goals conceded and 30 or above away points for a start. Realistically our season might end up something like this

The gap between 3^rd and 4^th place is not as huge as much as it was in 2003-09 seasons, 4(2003-04, 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2008-09) out of the 6 seasons the gap was in double digits, but the seasons after that the gap was never more than 5 points meaning a third place finish is definitely on the cards if we finish our season at 80 points.

The last time we had 35 or above away points were in 2012-13 and 2013-14 and the reason according to me was the Koscielny-Mertesacker partnership when they were at their peak and their DM was Arteta and they had a better RB in Sagna. Today we have a better DM but a not so good (at least by the looks of it) CB pairing (probably Sokratis Papastathopoulos and Shkodran Mustafi) a good RB in Stephen Lichsteiner, LB is the only area we are better than before. In season 2013-14 though we conceded 41 goals, it doesn’t show the entire picture. Except the away games against the Top 4 (Manchester City, Liverpool & Chelsea) we conceded 24 goals in 35 games which I feel was a very good performance, it could have been better if we had planned better for those 3 away games. If we can pull off a performance similar to 2013-14 (Except those away games of course!) then there is no way that we can finish below 80 points. Regarding the planning for away games, there is no doubt that the new management team more than capable than the previous man in charge. I feel we will concede around 30-35 goals this season, which will be an improvement over the last season’s 51.

Please refer the extracts of the Premier league points table over the last 15 seasons to get better understanding of the article.

Thank you.