One big reason why Arsenal can still make the top-four

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Historically there is hope that Arsenal can finish top four.

I am seeing a lot of negativity surrounding Arsenal at the moment and one of the most common positions is that Arsenal will not finish top-four.

Well, I decided to check that out. How often do the top four change after 12 games have been completed?

I looked at the five previous seasons to this one and using the Premier League tables section I found the info I was looking for.

Below I have listed the positions after 12 games and the finishing spot on the right.

Last five seasons

2018/19

Man City – 1
Liverpool – 2
Chelsea – 3
Tottenham – 4
Arsenal – 5
Bournemouth – 14th

So, zero change there then.

2017/18

Man City – 1
Man Utd – 2
Chelsea – 5
Tottenham – 3
Liverpool – 4
Arsenal – 6

Basically, Liverpool took Chelsea’s spot in 2017/18

2016/17

Chelsea – 1
Liverpool – 4
Man City – 3
Arsenal – 5
Tottenham – 2
Man Utd – 6

Not nice, Tottenham moved into the top four at the expense of Arsenal

2015/16

Man City – 4
Arsenal – 2
Leicester City – 1
Man Utd – 5
Tottenham – 3
West Ham – 7

Tottenham get into the top-four, Man Utd drop out

2014/15

Chelsea – 1
Southampton – 7
Man City – 2
Man Utd – 4
Newcastle – 15
West Ham – 12

Southampton fell away and Arsenal grabbed a top-four spot.

Four of the last five seasons saw one of the top-four fall away. In better words, it rarely stays as it is.

I did not look at points difference or take anything else into consideration, there are just far too many variables and I would have had to look at each team individually.

For me, everything eventually evens itself out and so the headline positions are what I look at.

Therefore, based on four of the last five seasons probably Chelsea or Leicester City may drop out of a Champions League spot. Also looking at the teams above it will be between Tottenham, Arsenal and Man Utd that will benefit.

Which of those three is highest in the table? Arsenal, that is who.

That for me is one big reason we can still make the top-four.

I know there are a million counter-arguments and I accept that this is a bit flimsy but it does show one thing. It shows that all is not lost, that Arsenal is well placed still to finish top-four.

Updated: November 21, 2019 — 11:39 am

14 Comments

  1. So can the other top teams

    They had better focused on EL

  2. Martin , as far as this goes it may well be of intrest to those who look for easy SUPERFICIAL comparisons but as a professional bettor I KNOW that comparisons are only of real use when ALL the nitty gritty details are closely compared. You say these are too many to go into. But I suggest to you that those are PRECISELY the level you need to go into, in acute detail too, if ANY comparisons are to be of any use, accuracy speaking. You either do this properly and in fine detail or it is merely a sort of game of interest to the keyboard warriors who do not require acute accuracy when assessing comparisons. Stats need to be assessed in the same way. Most are next to useless and far too vague to be of real use, if you NEED the ACTUAL truth. If it is just a space filler then no harm I suppose, but as a truth seeker I prefer proper analysis.

    1. ADDING TO MY ABOVE COMMENT . THE TYPE OF DETAILS YOU NEED ARE :HOW MANY POINTS BEHIND THE TOP FOUR ARE THE TEAMS YOU HOPE MAKE IT. HOW MANY KEY LONG TERM INJURIES(AND OF TOP FOUR RIVALS),WHAT ARE THE KEY FIXTURES(INDEED ALL OF THEM) TO COME, HOW AMBITIOUS AND CONFIDENT ARE THE RESPECTIVE TEAMS. IS THE CURRENT MANAGER LIKELY TO STILL BE HERE IN A MONTH(S) AND SO ON. Otherwise it is just playing a sort of parlour game and not seeking the ACTUAL likelihood of making top four.

      1. Jon, quieten down a little please. I know you use capitals for emphasis but please be more selective than than this.

        1. Why on earth does my using capitals upset you? Serious question Martin. It is merely emphasis and MY OWN CHOICE when to use them. NOT YOURS. Unless you see yourself as a dictator, which I hope you do not and doubt that you do. I do not complain when others fail to use correct grammar and do not punctuate correctly, as it is not my place to do so. Surely is is the content of what is written and not capitals, lack of punctuation, typos or any other matter (which some might find irritating) that ACTUALLY MATTERS? Wouldn’t you agree?

          1. It just makes it difficult to read Jon and takes away from what you are actually saying. But fine, carry on, was just a polite request.

        2. The man has a superiority complex and thus finds most work unworthy of his SUPERIOR INTELLECT. The part where you state it is a lightweight articles not considering the multiple variables flew over his head.

          1. Ackshay, how you have the arrogance to state your dubious “facts” about me, whom you have never met, do not know and are so quick to judge, reveals far more about YOU than it ever can about me. Your own words betray your true self.

    2. I also make a good living from betting and I agree with most of what you say there. But I did say in the article I was looking at just headline positions only. I also accepted I would need to go into each club individually because there are so many variables. The articles is what it is, aaa balck and white look at what previously happened, nothing more nothing less.

      1. And as I said, was fine, as far as it goes. Pro bettors know very well, as you also state ,that proper detail is vital when making personal financially valuable comparisons. Horses for courses, I suppose!

  3. Based on our abject displays in the PL this season,and the fact that Chelsea and Leicester are playing so well,the prospects of our finishing in the top four are on a par with Donald Trump being awarded the Nobel Peace prize.

    1. Ah yes Grandad, Donald Trump, that well known “peace maker”. Now why can’t I get this strait jacket off me!

  4. The prospects of us finishing top 4 are minimal. I broke this down on another thread.

    Realistically to get top four we are going to need 73-75 points at the end of the season. We are currently on 17 so need 56-58 points from 26 remaining games – the odds are really against us. We are currently on course to finish on 53 points.

    Based on my logic we’ll need a minimum 17/18 wins and a handful of draws from our remaining games – dream on!!

    1. I have already written this season off, top four or silverware speaking. What vitally matters now is that the club changes course immediately and sacks Emery. Most of all we need an owner who cares but that is the real long term war we need to face. First let us win the lesser battle, which is to get Emery out. Each day he remains we regress further and further. Most of us fans know that and very soon the club will act. Probably before New Year. If it takes worse still results to get them to sack him, it is a price worth paying. Of course I say that reluctantly, as a realist but devoted and life long fan

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