Historically there is hope that Arsenal can finish top four.
I am seeing a lot of negativity surrounding Arsenal at the moment and one of the most common positions is that Arsenal will not finish top-four.
Well, I decided to check that out. How often do the top four change after 12 games have been completed?
I looked at the five previous seasons to this one and using the Premier League tables section I found the info I was looking for.
Below I have listed the positions after 12 games and the finishing spot on the right.
Last five seasons
2018/19
Man City – 1
Liverpool – 2
Chelsea – 3
Tottenham – 4
Arsenal – 5
Bournemouth – 14th
So, zero change there then.
2017/18
Man City – 1
Man Utd – 2
Chelsea – 5
Tottenham – 3
Liverpool – 4
Arsenal – 6
Basically, Liverpool took Chelsea’s spot in 2017/18
2016/17
Chelsea – 1
Liverpool – 4
Man City – 3
Arsenal – 5
Tottenham – 2
Man Utd – 6
Not nice, Tottenham moved into the top four at the expense of Arsenal
2015/16
Man City – 4
Arsenal – 2
Leicester City – 1
Man Utd – 5
Tottenham – 3
West Ham – 7
Tottenham get into the top-four, Man Utd drop out
2014/15
Chelsea – 1
Southampton – 7
Man City – 2
Man Utd – 4
Newcastle – 15
West Ham – 12
Southampton fell away and Arsenal grabbed a top-four spot.
Four of the last five seasons saw one of the top-four fall away. In better words, it rarely stays as it is.
I did not look at points difference or take anything else into consideration, there are just far too many variables and I would have had to look at each team individually.
For me, everything eventually evens itself out and so the headline positions are what I look at.
Therefore, based on four of the last five seasons probably Chelsea or Leicester City may drop out of a Champions League spot. Also looking at the teams above it will be between Tottenham, Arsenal and Man Utd that will benefit.
Which of those three is highest in the table? Arsenal, that is who.
That for me is one big reason we can still make the top-four.
I know there are a million counter-arguments and I accept that this is a bit flimsy but it does show one thing. It shows that all is not lost, that Arsenal is well placed still to finish top-four.