Analysis: Why it is to Arsenal’s advantage to be the chasers in the title race

Why does the “chasing pack” suit Arsenal’s pursuit of the EPL trophy this season more than the “pace-setter” of last season?
 Days are moving like a Shanghai Maglev passenger train, and games are coming thick and fast towards the end of this EPL season, and Arsenal fans are dreaming of ending 20 years or so of waiting for a major trophy. Again and rightly so.
The season that had just gone, 2022/23, after a match day 26: Arsenal was the “pace-setter” at the top of the EPL table, after accumulating 63 points and had a +34-goal difference. In reality, they stayed there for donkey’s years.

Manchester City was just 2nd, with 58 points and a goal difference of +41 while their neighbor Manchester United was in 3rd with 52 points: I think I will have to end up here with them as their struggles continue this season (“Arteta to Manchester United”?!: Rio, you are having a laugh, mate! 😃)

Last season, Arsenal fans were hoping that the team would be triumphant come the end of the season after being a “pace-setter” for 248 days: It’s the longest time without winning the league in English history according to OptaJoe.

Below is the table, unfolding Arsenal’s last 12 games for the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons.

One could see our momentum dwindled after the 2-2 draw against Liverpool, followed by another 2-2 draw against West Ham, which was followed by a “bizarre” 3-3 draw against already relegated Southampton at Emirates Stadium in which, against all odds, an out-of-form ex-Arsenal player Walcott scored against us!

Arsenal lost their 248 days “pace-setter” advantage in just a space of two weeks and 3 days (yes, 17 days!), between 09 April to 26 April 2023 (See the cells in Mandarin color, in the above table).

During that period of Arsenal’s capitulation, Manchester City was flying and winning their crucial 4 games for fun, including against Arsenal themselves:

●1. Manchester City 4-1 Liverpool:1st April 2023

●2. Manchester City 4-1 Southampton: 8th April 2023

● 3. Leicester 1-3 Manchester City: 15th April 2023

●4. Manchester City 4-1 Arsenal: 26th April 2023 (Sky Sports)

To be honest, Arsenal had already “lost” the race 3 games before meeting Manchester City on 26th April 2023 by dropping 6 important points after drawing 3 consecutive games whilst Manchester City had gained a crucial 9 points after winning their 3 consecutive games.  So, losing to Manchester City, 4-1, in what many football pundits termed “a 6-pointer game,” was the final nail in the coffin.

In this season 2023/24, after match day 26, Arsenal is sitting in 3rd place, after accumulating 58 points with a +39-goal difference. Arsenal is just 2 points behind the now “pace-setter” Liverpool at 60 points, with a +38-goal difference, and are a point behind the reigning champions, Manchester City in second place at 59 points and a +33-goal difference.

After the new year and their holiday trip in the warm weather of Dubai, Arsenal’s fortunes have changed, and their goal-scoring touches have come back with a vengeance.

Since the turn of the year, Arsenal has scored a staggering 25 goals in six Premier League matches. Breaking their own records for the largest number of away goals scored per game along the way after demolishing the poor Hammers 6-0 in their London Stadium.

Also, during that time, Arsenal won relatively “easier” against table topper and currently “pace-setter”, Liverpool.  Liverpool had only one single shot on target against Arsenal’s 7 in the match. Remember Liverpool was the in form team when the lost to Arsenal (WWWWW).

I know in the EPL, no team that is a pushover. Every Premier League game is tough. However, with the current form, a few would bet against Arsenal winning most of the remaining games, including Manchester City away.

This season, after 12 consecutive Premier League defeats against Manchester City, on 08 October 2023, at last, Arsenal beat them at Emirates. In that game, Manchester City registered only 2 shots against 12 for Arsenal, and in those 2, only 1 was on target according to Opta Analyst.

Last year our Arsenal team couldn’t cope with the “pressure” of being chased by the in form Manchester City.

In every game Arsenal was drawing or losing, the heavy breathing sound of Manchester City was over their shoulders, and to be honest, it was too scary and intimidating to that young team. You could see how they lost or drew the games they shouldn’t.

Of course, injuries to our important players William Saliba and Gabriel Santos Magalhàes at the heart of our defense towards the end of the season worked against us as well.

An inexperienced young squad could also have played a part in our demise last season.

This time around, the team has grown up and has valuable experience after what happened in the previous year.

The signing of Declan Rice in the summer has worked very well so far in terms of adding experience, leadership, and aggression to the team. And hopefully, it will work well up to the end of the season.

Now, the team doesn’t feel the pressure of being chased. Instead, Arsenal is chasing Liverpool and Manchester City. The pressure is “more” on these teams than on Arsenal.  By the look of it, this suits Arsenal very well as last season’s pressure is taken off their shoulders, and now they can let their football do the talking on the pitch as their current form can underpin.

I know, this “hypothesis” has to be proven come the end of the season.  However,  Arsenal fans, we all hope the team can get through the finish line this time around and make us proud again.

COYG!

Aziz Senzia

A Gooner Fan in Tanzania


LOONEY TOONS! Revenge is sweet
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