Transfers and values – the real picture
It is truly amazing, how one can be misled by articles and posts, which are well written, and on the surface, seem built on solid arguments, but are in fact painting a picture which has very little to do with reality.
Lately, numerous posts and at least one longer article have postulated that either Arsenal in general, and/or Arteta and Edu in particular, during the recent rebuild of our team, has given away valuable players and thrown away money left, right and centre. Related to this is also the notion that the only reason Arteta has been able to turn us into title contenders for the first time in xx years, is in fact the big spending by the owners, and other managers, including previous Arsenal managers, could have achieved at least the same with the same financial backing.
So let us look at the two postulations:
1) Arsenal are wasting money
2) The progress under Arteta is nothing special, and is really mostly a product of the spending on new players. Other managers could have done the same.
1) Arsenal (especially Arteta and Edu) are wasting money
Individual players like Pepe, Auba, Mustafi, Soares, Holding and others have been mentioned to drive home the point. Although the examples to some extent have been cherry picked, it is true, there are players, who have been really poor “investments”, and it is also true, that in some of the cases, Arteta and/or Edu could have done better.
But in itself there is a lack of understanding of how big a business Arsenal is, and how big businesses work, in truly believing Arteta and Edu would be allowed to “throw away” money in general.Arsenal is a really big business, and of course our owners know the total value of our players is the biggest asset in the business. There is simply no way the owners would have a management which constantly decreases the value of the business. It really is so basic it shouldn’t be necessary to point it out.
That is only the general perspective.
As for individual dispositions like buying or selling, Arteta and Edu will not have the formal authorization to be the only ones buying or selling multi million pound assets. Those decisions will in the end only go ahead by decisions higher up.
While you can find individual players which have been poor investments for Arsenal, the truth is you will see it at any big club, and I literally mean every big club. Getting it right with every player all the time is an impossibility. You can find failures and successes everywhere, and the only way to look at it is to take an overall fact based view.
Take a careful look at the table below. The numbers are found on the website Tranfermarkt.com, and although the currency is Euro it shows exactly, what has happened over the past few years.
Club..Value July 1st, 2019..Net investment..Current Value
Man C 1.17 bn 372.75 m 1.18 bn
Arsenal 582.75 m 645.14 m 1.09 bn
Chelsea 850.65 m 785.64 m 924.5 m
Man U 801.10 m 701.81 m 882.3 m
Liverpool 1.11 bn 254.60 m 827.3 m
Spurs 882.00 m 510.03 m 689.3 m
Newcastle 207.50 m 486.30 m 598 m
Aston V 126.50 m 364.47 m 597.7 m
In the right hand column you see the value of the current squad of the 8 most valuable clubs in the PL. As you can see we are listed as having the second most valuable squad. Market values of players is a complex matter to set as it is measured by taking several things into account, among them: Players age, contract length, position etc. etc.
Transfermartk.com uses a formula, which I doubt any here can refute as being wildly wrong.
In the left hand column you see the values of the squads in the same clubs as per July 1’st, 2019.
As you can see, back then, we only had the sixth most valuable squad.
But that is not the important thing here. The important thing is the middle column. The column shows the nett investment in transfers in the period, and we are in fact the club with the third highest nett investment in the period.
The fact is though, we have managed to increase the total value of our squad with a bit more than 500m while our net investment has been 645m. If you look at the other “Big 6 Clubs”; Man C, Chelsea, Man U, Liverpool and Spurs, you can see how big an achievement that is. Let me point out the most glaring facts:Chelsea have spent more than 785m and only increased the value by around 74m.
Man U have spent more than 700m to get an increase of around 81m
Spurs have spent 510m, and actually managed to decrease the value by nearly 200m!!
Liverpool have spent 254m and decreased the total value by nearly 300m!!
Finally, Man C have spent more than 372m to keep their total value.
Those numbers speak for themselves. Arsenal has done an outstanding job in this area over the past few years. Only Newcastle has managed to do something of the same quality and Villa has in fact done an even better job.
So if you think Arsenal in general, and Arteta and Edu in particular, are doing a bad job in this area, think again. They are doing a great job. They are not wasting money. They have done an unbelievable job in building a whole new and young squad, which not only competes well and generates money that way, but also is making huge increases in value.
But logically, if this wasn’t the case, and it was the opposite, Arteta and Edu would of course be history. I bet the owners are extremely happy with their job, and I am afraid anyone on JustArsenal who are hoping they have found a reason here to get rid of Arteta, will be very disappointed. He plays a big part in the strengthening of Arsenal as a business. So does Edu and anyone involved in management, coaching, player development and contract management. The progress over the past few years is immense.
2) Other managers could have done the same, with the same financial backing?
This is also a point, I see from time to time. This is of course a little bit more difficult to argue against as it is very hypothetical, and as such it cannot be 100% proved or disproved by facts.Could/would Wenger have been able to achieve the same, if he had been kept on as a manager? Could/would Emery? Or even better?
Pure speculation.
From the above, we can see something which does not answer anything in relation to Wenger and Emery, but certainly gives Arteta a lot of credibility as a good manager.
Numerous managers at Spurs, Man U and Chelsea, including several world renowned managers, have been in charge in the period. And despite huge backing, in some cases bigger spending than ours, they have not achieved better. They have done much worse.
Our so called “rookie manager”, has arguably outdone them, putting Arsenal in a very strong position. The indications are that backing a manager financially is of course very important, but it is no guarantee for success. Arteta has been backed, and he has delivered. Others have not. That we can see.
Whether it will continue so, remains to be seen, but for now, there is no hope for any “Arteta Out” crowd in the facts regarding transfers and development of players.
Things are looking good, enjoy it.
Anders S
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