Transfers and values – the real picture
It is truly amazing, how one can be misled by articles and posts, which are well written, and on the surface, seem built on solid arguments, but are in fact painting a picture which has very little to do with reality.
Lately, numerous posts and at least one longer article have postulated that either Arsenal in general, and/or Arteta and Edu in particular, during the recent rebuild of our team, has given away valuable players and thrown away money left, right and centre. Related to this is also the notion that the only reason Arteta has been able to turn us into title contenders for the first time in xx years, is in fact the big spending by the owners, and other managers, including previous Arsenal managers, could have achieved at least the same with the same financial backing.
So let us look at the two postulations:
1) Arsenal are wasting money
2) The progress under Arteta is nothing special, and is really mostly a product of the spending on new players. Other managers could have done the same.
1) Arsenal (especially Arteta and Edu) are wasting money
Individual players like Pepe, Auba, Mustafi, Soares, Holding and others have been mentioned to drive home the point. Although the examples to some extent have been cherry picked, it is true, there are players, who have been really poor “investments”, and it is also true, that in some of the cases, Arteta and/or Edu could have done better.
But in itself there is a lack of understanding of how big a business Arsenal is, and how big businesses work, in truly believing Arteta and Edu would be allowed to “throw away” money in general.Arsenal is a really big business, and of course our owners know the total value of our players is the biggest asset in the business. There is simply no way the owners would have a management which constantly decreases the value of the business. It really is so basic it shouldn’t be necessary to point it out.
That is only the general perspective.
As for individual dispositions like buying or selling, Arteta and Edu will not have the formal authorization to be the only ones buying or selling multi million pound assets. Those decisions will in the end only go ahead by decisions higher up.
While you can find individual players which have been poor investments for Arsenal, the truth is you will see it at any big club, and I literally mean every big club. Getting it right with every player all the time is an impossibility. You can find failures and successes everywhere, and the only way to look at it is to take an overall fact based view.
Take a careful look at the table below. The numbers are found on the website Tranfermarkt.com, and although the currency is Euro it shows exactly, what has happened over the past few years.
Club..Value July 1st, 2019..Net investment..Current Value
Man C 1.17 bn 372.75 m 1.18 bn
Arsenal 582.75 m 645.14 m 1.09 bn
Chelsea 850.65 m 785.64 m 924.5 m
Man U 801.10 m 701.81 m 882.3 m
Liverpool 1.11 bn 254.60 m 827.3 m
Spurs 882.00 m 510.03 m 689.3 m
Newcastle 207.50 m 486.30 m 598 m
Aston V 126.50 m 364.47 m 597.7 m
In the right hand column you see the value of the current squad of the 8 most valuable clubs in the PL. As you can see we are listed as having the second most valuable squad. Market values of players is a complex matter to set as it is measured by taking several things into account, among them: Players age, contract length, position etc. etc.
Transfermartk.com uses a formula, which I doubt any here can refute as being wildly wrong.
In the left hand column you see the values of the squads in the same clubs as per July 1’st, 2019.
As you can see, back then, we only had the sixth most valuable squad.
But that is not the important thing here. The important thing is the middle column. The column shows the nett investment in transfers in the period, and we are in fact the club with the third highest nett investment in the period.
The fact is though, we have managed to increase the total value of our squad with a bit more than 500m while our net investment has been 645m. If you look at the other “Big 6 Clubs”; Man C, Chelsea, Man U, Liverpool and Spurs, you can see how big an achievement that is. Let me point out the most glaring facts:Chelsea have spent more than 785m and only increased the value by around 74m.
Man U have spent more than 700m to get an increase of around 81m
Spurs have spent 510m, and actually managed to decrease the value by nearly 200m!!
Liverpool have spent 254m and decreased the total value by nearly 300m!!
Finally, Man C have spent more than 372m to keep their total value.
Those numbers speak for themselves. Arsenal has done an outstanding job in this area over the past few years. Only Newcastle has managed to do something of the same quality and Villa has in fact done an even better job.
So if you think Arsenal in general, and Arteta and Edu in particular, are doing a bad job in this area, think again. They are doing a great job. They are not wasting money. They have done an unbelievable job in building a whole new and young squad, which not only competes well and generates money that way, but also is making huge increases in value.
But logically, if this wasn’t the case, and it was the opposite, Arteta and Edu would of course be history. I bet the owners are extremely happy with their job, and I am afraid anyone on JustArsenal who are hoping they have found a reason here to get rid of Arteta, will be very disappointed. He plays a big part in the strengthening of Arsenal as a business. So does Edu and anyone involved in management, coaching, player development and contract management. The progress over the past few years is immense.
2) Other managers could have done the same, with the same financial backing?
This is also a point, I see from time to time. This is of course a little bit more difficult to argue against as it is very hypothetical, and as such it cannot be 100% proved or disproved by facts.Could/would Wenger have been able to achieve the same, if he had been kept on as a manager? Could/would Emery? Or even better?
Pure speculation.
From the above, we can see something which does not answer anything in relation to Wenger and Emery, but certainly gives Arteta a lot of credibility as a good manager.
Numerous managers at Spurs, Man U and Chelsea, including several world renowned managers, have been in charge in the period. And despite huge backing, in some cases bigger spending than ours, they have not achieved better. They have done much worse.
Our so called “rookie manager”, has arguably outdone them, putting Arsenal in a very strong position. The indications are that backing a manager financially is of course very important, but it is no guarantee for success. Arteta has been backed, and he has delivered. Others have not. That we can see.
Whether it will continue so, remains to be seen, but for now, there is no hope for any “Arteta Out” crowd in the facts regarding transfers and development of players.
Things are looking good, enjoy it.
Anders S
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Spot on Anders S. People should see the Transfermarkt stats
We’ve also won three games and drawn one, so we’re still doing a good job
Arteta and Edu just handle the sports aspects of the club. Kroenke is the main decision maker and there are other people that deal with player transfers
While explaining in the article, most things people have been saying a proving that our net spend is the third highest, only two teams spent more than us, utd and Chelsea. It is your opinion that we are doing great in the financial dealings at Arsenal. Facts are facts. Our Gross spend is high and our gross sales are low. The value of the club is just speculation, not fact. A club could be sold at a higher or lower amount than it is valued at. You are not sticking to facts and figures of net spend, that is the bottom line. You told us we have spent 650 mil and our team value has gone up 500 mil. Well straight away that backs up the debate in the previous long article as you put. That we are spending fortunes, while getting very little back. What you dont mention is. How all this will affect our future spending regards FFP. To cover our losses, we will have to increase our sponsorship and incomes by winning the league or CL, or there will have to be a re alignment of our finances. Net spend and not valuation affects your finances and ability to spend or sell. Valuation is a virtual value.
I am sorry, but facts are facts.
Arsenal have spent a lot of money, but it obviously hasn’t been wasted.
Not only have our results in the PL improved, thus generating more income, but also the investments have increased the value of the business.
It really is very simple, the owner will be very happy with how things are going, and those thinking, they have found out Arteta is wasting money, should think again.
But those are just the basic facts. Logic should tell you, there is no way our owner would accept wasting money.
The word WASTED has never been mentioned. Stick to the facts. Its about buying and selling.
So, nobody has accused Arteta of WASTING money??
I think you have missed something.
The money will only be wasted, if nothing is won after spending it. In the mean time financially it is costing us a fortune by selling or not selling at the wrong time and buying high. It impacts our finances.
It has nothing to do with wasted. That has not been established YET.
“Not been mentioned” but by who or whom? In this article the theme of money wasted is central to the whole piece.
So I ask again, WHO OR WHOM do you claim has not mentioned wasting money. You certainly HAVE and countless times, I cannot help but notice.
Ah! That good old “logic”! So beloved by thinkers and shunned by reactionary non thinkers.
I am, as you are well aware, firmly with YOU Anders, in using its and preaching its use.
I do not normally reply to you Fox because of your arrogance bullying and lies. BUT because you have LIED yet again, i will put you right. Show me once where i have used the word WASTED. Look at the last article and you will see, i have put over my debate, case and opinion in a rational way, explaining myself clearly, that financially our dealings were not done in the best way. STOP THE LIES FOX and do one.
You , nor anyone else need not use thr actual word “wasted” to make their own opinion that the club has wasted huge money abundantly clear.
English is a rich and deep language where very many word can be used to descibe the same meaning Such as “wasted”. If you are trying to seriously deny that you have never writen that our club has wasted money, not only will you be in a tiny minority on here- as I TOO HAVE OFTEN SAID WE HAVE WASTED MONEY- but you will be outed as a liar for your countless posts saying exactly that.
I did not challenge you for saying we wasted money but for pretending , even to yourself that you have never claimed that obvious truth. Of course we HAVE wasted money, to deny that, AND that you have said that often, , is ludicrous.
Stop rambling. I have not used the word WASTED. You said i did. Find where i have used that word and show me. I have given a view as to what is happening and that is poor handling and selling/giving away players at the wrong time. I have explained in all my posts what I meant and why. You lied. End of.
Your “rambling” is an educated persons way of describing matters properly and more fully.
IF ONLY you could, or at least tried, to broaden the extreme narrowness of how you think and write. Sigh!
Well you cant and you wont. Even in you little world. Telling someone they said something they didn’t. Is lieing.
We just heard about our purchases and sales from the media, yet nobody knows why Kroenke let our expensive players leave for free
There must be other details on the contracts and we still haven’t breached FFP yet
An astute businessman like Kroenke won’t let a young football coach waste hundreds of millions of pounds without his permissions. Arteta/ Edu aren’t that powerful and there are financial executives at the club
well said…. valuation from tfm.com is just a thing of speculation…..net spend and results to back it up is a thing of fact….our net spend is high and not winning anything tangible yet to increase our revenue….this season is very important in terms of winning to increase revenue so as to match expectations of recent investments….plus we are bad sellers so based on that the whole speculation about the value of the squad just doesn’t align…..I’m sure tfm.com never valued Pepe at 0.00£ but edu and arteta did…..
Soon enough, may be next season onwards, we will have to consider selling our stars. Increasing value does not matter if we do not realize it. If we can get the new additions to challenge first team players – then first team players can be moved on one at a time to make it a sustainable business model.
Also, if players are kept as reserve, we should give them minutes somewhere – like ESR, to retain their value.
Thank you for providing a different perspective.Looking at this issue from different perspectives can only lead to a balanced view.
Measuring total value of a squad is pointless, saying we spent a lot and increased the value of our squad while others didn’t is a bit irrelevant because the starting baseline of each squad has been conveniently left out.
Obviously if you clearing “deadwood” and replacing them the value of the squad will go up vs a club like City that’s starting on a high base and moving on high value players are replacing them with other high value players. Using this as a data point to say we’ve done well in the transfer market isn’t statistically significant in any way, it means nothing essentially.
I think the transfers have been a very mixed bag…;some great, some good, some average and some terrible.
If you torture the data long enough, it will tell you what you want to hear 🙂
Err the STARTING BASELINE is the first column in the table…
The starting baseline to judge how Arteta has been doing surely must be, when he took over or as close as you can get to do it with reliable data.
👍
Your first paragraph is very interesting. Can’t the same be said for this article?
Agree, a lot of waffle.
I am sorry, but facts are facts.
Arsenal have spent a lot of money, but it obviously hasn’t been wasted.
Not only have our results in the PL improved, thus generating more income, but also the investments have increased the value of the business.
It really is very simple, the owner will be very happy with how things are going, and those thinking, they have found out Arteta is wasting money, should think again.
But those are just the basic facts. Logic should tell you, there is no way our owner would accept wasting money.
By sanctioning ripping off contracts the owner has indeed accepted wasting money. One cannot substitute hard facts for opinion and speculation.
That the club has lost a lost of money on ripping up contracts is a fact, hard evidence that is not open for interpretation and cannot be denied.
Again, individual cases can be discussed, but if you do, then you will have to take everything into account, i.e.:
How much has it benefitted the team and our results to get rid of Auba?
How much has it helped to improve our culture?
Etc. Etc.
It can’t just be measured in a hypothetical case, that if only we had kept him, we might have gotte say 10m. for him.
So, the overall result is, the way Arteta has gone about it, has actually been very good, both for the strength of our team and for the value of the club. There is hard evidence to prove it.
If we follow your logic then you can’t boast of our current squad value because it is hypothetical that we will get same amount were we to sell them.
I have just checked Transfermarkt by the way and the season Arteta took over our squad value (the squad that won him the FA Cup) was 575 Millions!
I am not boasting of anything.
I am just pointing to the facts that show Arteta has done very well with the money, that has been available to him. Contrary to what some believe.
How has he done well yet? That has not been proved. Come back at the end of the season and tell us then how he has done. ALL of the financial dealings will then prove or disprove how well he has done. Neither you or i can say yet.
All we can say now is, the numbers show, so far he has done very well, and the current tries to discredit him with costing Arsenal money is absolutely rubbish at this point in time.
What happens in the future, we can’t predict.
What would you advise the owner to do about a player, who for some reason, is no longer in the club’s/manager’s plans, but who still has significant contractual obligation yet for whom there’s no serious transfer interest?
Ok, how did we manage to give Auba away at a loss because nobody “wanted” him and 6 months later Barca made a 10 mil profit?
help me ask firmer oooo…… not only auba…..sokratis just moved for over 20m….left arsenal for well over nothing..turned down 20m for Niles but later was released…..I can continue counting numbers of bad businesses…..to now top it with havertz for 65m is unbelievable…..if arsenal were to let go havertz I bet we won’t get a cent for him but paid 65 to Chelsea when there’s no bidding war whatsoever…. pathetic piece of business especially when he wasn’t even guns blazing the previous season
Most reasonable Arsenal fans want Arteta to be successful, because the club will be successful.
Now it’s time to see a return on the investment, which I believe is coming very soon. The “project” is ending as his squad is finally assembled.
He has the players and versatility he has been seeking and several years to fine tune his tactics.
Let’s see how we finish the year, and consider if the juice was worth the squeeze.
By the way. Arsene Wenger performed well in the transfer market. The present regime are not. YET!!!!
Reggie
Over his whole period or sporadically?
Generally over all. Yes his last period was below the previous but he tried to balance and rebalance the books. Sometimes admittedly to the detriment of the team. But his dealings where done with prudence.
1. We have to look at the value of the current squad but in your research for this article what were the values of the players who were let go for nothing or go on loan? Clearly their values were not 0?
As you have stressed Transfermarket website can’t be wrong on valuations what were the values of player’s we gave away for free?
2. Even if other clubs have decreased players value not a single of them has given away nearly an entire squad for free.
Transfermarkt.com does not list players not part of the squad.
But it really changes nothing, as I see it.
Arsenal are overall doing very well. Sure, as mentioned there are individual cases, which may not have been successful, but the way things have been managed have both improved the team in terms of competing for the PL title and it has made Arsenal are much more valuable business.
So, painting a picture of Arteta and others as doing a bad job in buying and selling, really is false and not based on the facts.
Isn’t giving away players for free a fact?
That they have bought too many average players a fact?
What facts are false that some of us are quoting?
As gunnerbyheart have said below most of our highest valuable players are from previous regime contrary to what Arteta apologists would make one believe.
Last I checked on Transfermarket Declan Rice’s value was lower than what we bought him for.
The value of the squad has increased by hudreds of millions during Arteta’s reign. Read the numbers.
Do you really believe, our owners would accept the clearing out of certain players, if it could be deemed to huge financial losses??
Of course not.
Arteta has his job, because the owners are happy, and I am sure they are because they read the numbers. We are not talking Father Christmas here.
But he has ( or Arsenal has ) spent 100 of millions. I do not get your point. You are applauding him for spending huge amounts of cash. You should be applauding Kromke. Its his cash.
Investment was needed to build a new team, that has made us competitive again. I will for sure applaud Kroenke for making the investment possible.
My point is, Arteta has done very with the cash for Kroenke, and he hasn’t wasted money like so many seem to think (maybe you don’t, but many others).
And compared to how our main competitors and their managers have done in the same period, we have done extremely well.
Those are my points, nothing else.
How many players “given away for free were bought by Arteta/Edu?
It is not about painting a picture. Its about wether Arteta and Edu can actually win something, now they have spent fortunes. If they do, then none of this will matter. If they dont, our finances will suffer. Thats the crux of it.
Well, we almost agree on something.
There is a correlation between how a team performs and how the value of team changes.
That is also one of the reasons, why the value of our players overall is improving.
So it is too early too say either way.
Pépé 18M euros !
Agree on the 2nd point. But could not agree on 1st point.
The clubs value increase you see are mostly due to previous managers promoted young players and they are current stars like Saka, Martinelli , Smith Rowe, Nelson, Saliba. By these the the transfer budget is balanced. The other clubs could not produce such talents hence you cant see their value increase as compared to net spends.
The point is Arteta is
– not promoting and giving chances to young prospects
– buying very few value for money players
– buying average players with big fee like Havertz, Willian
– destroying some salable players value by not giving them chances even in cup competitions.
– Giving players free.
He can not sustain with this model for long and can not increase club value as net.
With all his positive he has to improve his players judgement and man management to make this club successful.
You have made the most valid point, i was also going to make. Young players brought to the club before this regime for small lay outs are raising the plus values by far more than any other players, with the possible exception of Odergaard. Martinelli,Saka and Saliba are boosting the values by massive amounts. Saka value 120, Martinelli 80 mil and Saliba 70 mil. But all would probably command more.
Willian was bought not on big fee but Arteta was playing him almost entire season even he was not performing. he was so bad that at his place any academy player could have played and performed better (Later smith Rowe performed when given chances). If Arteta has guts to bench him earlier at least 1 more academy player could have got chance. Even Willian admitted he was not in Zone.
The same happening with Havertz. you talking only 4 games but he is playing in EPL for 3 years and nothing performed. Just think if he was in Arsenal before Arteta would have ripped his contract and given him free to other clubs. what was the pressing need to buy him in 65M. I bet Chelsea could have thrown him in 40M.
No Problem if Arteta introduce Haverz from bench till the time he gets confidence and other players also gets chances by this way.
The problem is Arteta is learning but not fast. otherwise he has not commited same mistake again and again like Ozil – to Auba or Willian to Havertz
It’s the same throughout the league
It is impossible to compare – you have to go by a relatively short period of time
I have always said this everywhere…. his man management skills leaves a lot to be desired….if hojlund who did next to nothing at Atalanta could go for such humongous amount of fee how come we get get something better for a clearly better player who performed better the season before in balogun… ostracising him out of the team during pre season speaks volumes to potential buyers as a player not needed by the team hence they will value him less … you could have continued picking him in the bunch and not let it out there that he is not wanted…. that way you keep his value up there …but our coach always does otherwise…. players like Pepe and few others are not that bad, they just don’t fit your system…. you can keep their value playing them in fringe competitions or bringing them on when game is won in as much they are still in the squad…. but don’t ever make it clear and obvious that they are not wanted cos no suitor will be willing to pay good fee for such player knowing they can always get them for lesser or nothing…..arteta seriously needs to start looking at himself…..his man management skills is simply not there at all in my opinion
Yes we have turn the curve, but the gaffer should be tempered down a little with his impulsive appetite.
ANDERS. very probably the single most brilliantly written, solidly factual and myth busting piece, I can ever recall on JA.
An article of such importance and depth, that gives true insight and immense food for thought – at least to those of us who regularly use and preach REAL thought – and enhances this often boring and samey site MARVELLOUSLY.
I for just one, would LOVE more from you in this vein!
Blimey Jon, three “best ever articles” in one week!
Ves JustArsenal is usually very boring lol
Not sure I ACTUALLYPRECISELY SAID all were best ever, but i certainly praised them and rightly so. I do not mean to insult your site, mostly for the obvious ,reason that youi know esp from my many emails to you, exactly what I HAVE LONG THOUGHT could and ought to be vastly improved on JA.
For clarity it plainly IS far too samey, taken as a whole and most articles ARE almost exact replicas of countless others But occasionaly a real gem comes though and, yes PAT, in short tme we have had THREE GEMS and another number of decent efforts.
So the question renains “is JA getting better”? Well, on the p[ositiveside,one sthing help and that is that you now have many more writers and some are almost regulars. Others are regular occasionals.
Diverstity and variety will ALWAYS be hopeful factor and a reasonj to be optimistic .
So good luck and please continue encouraging- as you do daily- FAR more GOONERS to send in articles of their own
There are very many regulars on here – we all know their names- who post many times daily but who never DARE pen something original of their own.
THEY HAVE NOT THE SKILLS, NOR THE LANGUAGE, so content themselves with spiteful one liners, or even just a word or two, followed by an emoji or several. Ye Gods!
But that is how life works with lesser thinkers, I suppose!
Ye God’s Fox!!! Are we now to believe that stats are worthy examples to believe in?!
I do believe you branded them as only for the unthinking masses, or even the lesser thinkers just a mere few hours ago 🙄🙄🙄
Now, suddenly, the stats have produced REAL thought for the educated few amongst the JA faithfull!!
WAIT I hear the uneducated masses cry out, these stats agree with your thoughts so they must be true – what lesser thinkers we are amongst the unthinking masses I’m thinking 🤔🤔🤔
Footnote :No reflection on your article Anders – Ye God’s, I’d hate to think you would assume that.
The numbers are not stats. They are from a formula devised to value players.
Maybe you can elaborate on, why they shouldn’t be taken seriously?
Anders, my footnote should have told you I was not dismissing your article, as I stated before.
I was pointing out the fact that Jon accepts someone’s opinions (Transfer market) but decries actual stats produced after games etc….. especially if they don’t agree with his opinion.
Nothing more and nothing less.
Thank you.
Very informative ,well compiled article Anders.Of course, at the end of the day, the proof of the pudding, in terms of the finances of the Club should be accurately reflected on the production of the annual Accounts
Thank you.
I don’t know the actual rules of how accounts should be presented in the UK.
I only know the rules in my home country, Denmark, and in what we call the “Balance statement”, the total assets should be truthfully reflected, and for a football club/business, that means the player’s current value is assessed as best possible.
I don’t think anyone argues with the fact that Arsenal are in a healthy financial position.the problem that I and others have is with the management of ours assets/players.
According to Transfermakt,this is the amount of money some clubs have made in players sales over the last 5 seasons.
UTD:164M
Chelsea:700M
Liverpool:239M
Arsenal:198M
Brighton :437M
Spurs:276M
City:507M
Brighton:437M
But these numbers do not give us the full picture.take Arsenal for example,to get to 198M.how many players did we sell compared to the Sp*ds ?I don’t need to check to know it’s way more,I wouldn’t be surprised if we sold closed to 20 or more players.we also have to take into consideration ,the fees and wages we paid each one of ours players.despite having sold way more players than UTD we only made only 34/35 M more.not only that but if we were to add the money we paid out to players to leave,the picture is even worse.
SIAMOIS if you make a living as a trader, in whatever you care to specify, but you concern yourself ONLY with actual total amounts of goods sold, but ignore the VALUE of your current stock and current business, you will be likely to go out of business sooner, rather rthan later.
All balance sheets,( and I SPEAK BROADLY , RATHER THAN NARROWLY AND CONCERNED ONLY WITH MONEY IN ANDOUT)must reflect total value of assets and degree of confidence in future business success.
Otherwise you are not accounting wisely, nor correctly.
@Jon Fox,as the risk of repeating myself,I do not argue with our healthy financial situation.i haven’t checked it myself but I trust that the value of our squad ,ours commercials revenues….have all increased….but so did our spending.anyway,my issue is about the management of unwanted players/assets which has been abysmal not questions about it.i do not understand how the owners have allowed it to go on.Jon, imagine that those players were buildings/properties..do you think the owners would give them away for free? pay someone to take them off their hands?
Or as bad as they are, they’d still try to get some money for them.what would happen to a senior manager who’s written off more than 20 properties in 4 years or so?
Let’s not forget that it vis money which could have been reinvested in the club,squad, infrastructures…!
Siamois, I see the point you make but I simply dont give it the importance you do.
If you want to debate the narrow point that,, a lot of other matters aside, we could have raised more money from sales then fine; no argument from me.
But I FAR PREFER TO LOOK AT THE MUCH WIDER PICTURE WITH OUR CLUB ,
I fuly endorse Anders’ view that no canny multi billionaire would let a “supposed greenhorn financial club manager” simply “waste” the clubs funds enmasse.
I DONT BELIEVE HE HAS DONE THAT AT ALL; QUITE THE OPPOSITE IN WHAT HE HAS ACHIEVED IN TRANSFORMING OUR WHOLE CLUB SINCE 2019.
By all means carry on concentrating on just the narrow picture of what he could have saved. But I SAY THIS ; if he HAD been more concerned keeping low productive players and even playing them, to keep a perceived false financiai value, then he could not possibly have achieved the transformation,using FAR BETTER PLAYERS, he has done .
You cannot have it both ways and I suggest a canny multi billionaire not only KNOWS far more about our finances than either you or I do but is SO content with how MA is running our club , that he has backed him handsomely.
BUT ,I at least, retain full faith in what I see as an exceptional manager, even if he- shock, horror- is not perfect.
The wider picture then SIAMOIS, or the narrower one? I KNOW which I prefer!
@Jon Fox,the bigger one of course! as long as the club keeps going in the right direction, with the team fighting for and winning titles.i guess I can overlook it!
Good perspective!
This is a key point which some of the so-called ‘thinkers’ and ‘realists’ are consistently ignoring or do not understand.
hi Jon….I need to understand that all the club is enjoying for now is the investment poured into the club by the owners hereby increasing the value as would be expected…. the value the club is enjoying now is because the investment is still holding it and the club is doing relatively well on the pitch…. but in this business there’s so much you can invest and there is so much of course in every business investment can carry you….. so we badly need results coming in from this season…. we have to start winning or qualifying for the ucl and final stages consistently or we could be back to the trenches…… but still the state of the club now is mostly on the owners and also a bit from edu and arteta cos they could have done better with players going for free or bin paid off….
The first part of the article is completely flawed ,a player is worth what a buying and selling club come to an agreement on not some website that pulls numbers out of the sky and sticks them next to a player .
I’ll give you an example ….
Transfermartk had Rasmus Højlund down at 135 million before Utd bought him ,they got him for nearly half that price .
As for selling I’m not sure how anyone can pat our club on the back for that .
2nd part of the article is just opinion based but you did make some good points ,overall I didn’t read facts just the usual ,getting all defensive where Arteta is concerned.
Sorry, you are not interested in the facts, but can’t really help it.
As for pricing of a player, it is of course true, the actual sell/buy price of not only football players but for everything in this World, is whatever a buyer and a seller agree upon.
But, at least once a year, every business has to put a realistic value on their assets for accounting purposes, and that needs to be as accurate as possible.
I doubt anyone here, can do a more accurate job than Transfermarkt, but if you can, I would love to see it.
With all due respect, Tranfermarket, is not about accuracy. Its about an assumption. Or to put it another way guess.
With all due respect, do you have any knowledge, which could make you asses the value of players more accurately?
I am sure Transfermarkt is not 100% correct in all valuations, but that doesn’t really change the whole point.
So by same criteria Arsenal value was 582.75 m in 2019 and Arteta/Edu sold most of these value for how much less than 100M. so how can you defend them and say they did a good job. Forget about good they are doing very poor in player management and transfer category.
say the fact, praise what is good and criticize what’s not good.
The facts are
– Arteta is getting good results lately and higher position in EPL table.
– Arteta/Edu are doing very poor in player management and transfer
Read the article and think about it.
Arteta/Arsenal has invested in building a whole new team. The team is young, talented and doing very well. On top of that, it is a much more valuable team, that the one we had.
A combination of good management/coaching, good business etc. etc., including doing very well with transfers overall.
The valuable team you are talking is mostly due to youth players coached and promoted by previous managers like. Saka, Martilelli, Saliba, Nelson, Smith Rowe. These are saving Arteta.
How can you you say the did good in transfers with net loss and all these creating deadwood.
The players you mention have all been coached by the current team. Their contracts have all been managed very well also.
I don’t understand your question.
Why couldn’t they coach the same to the ones given away? You can’t have it both ways and you know it!
Every manager makes up his own mind about, which players, he wants to be part of his squad, short term and long term. It would be a waste of time to put ressources into players, you don’t believe can give you the results, you are looking for.
ANDERS,FAR TOO OBVIOUS A POINT FOR A NUMBER ON HERE TO GRASP!
fact
Anders, you said it Transfermarket is not 100% in its valuations. That just about what i said. In fact it could be said it isn’t any %, its a guide, its not accurate.
What they do is a valuation, I agree.
But even if they are say 10% or 15% to high or too low in their valuation , it doesn’t change a thing.
Arteta/Arsenal have done very well overall, especially compared to other top 6 clubs and their several managers in the period.
They are not facts though Anders ,I’ve read your article twice ,your whole premise for the first part of your article is taken from a website that guesses players transfer values .
I know you don’t like facts that can in any way be interpreted as supporting Arteta.
But even if the assesment by Tarnafermarkt.com is say 10% too high or low, it realy doesn’t change anything.
Arteta has done a trmendous job in increasing the value of the team, especially if you compare to how other temas and managers have done in the same period.
That is a fact shown by the number, whether they are 100% precise or not.
This as nothing to do with my opinion of Arteta ,you have wrote an Article to counter Dans yesterday,in which his was actually factual as it happened ,yours is all opinion based ,you suggest we now have a team ready to compete for the title ,again not fact but opinion based .
Dan’s article and many comments here try desperately to paint a picture of Arteta and Edu wasting money for Arsenal.
That picture is clearly wrong, even if you wish it to be true.
Didn’t we compete for the title last season? I thought that was a fact.
No they dont Anders, get over it. It shows that for Artetas part, he just dropped players, which dropped their value. On Edus part, for obvious reasons, couldn’t get rid of them. Now we know that EVERY team does that, with some players but this was a whole squad that cost a fair bit to assemble. Finance says that you need some return on your investment, the return we got was poor and will reflect our finances in the future. It isn about Arteta personally but everyone involved. Kronke obviously allowed it to happen but does kronke understand things like FFP. He will only be interested in the value of his investment, that is going up. That has no impact at all at what we can spend, in the future. Money coming in and going out does.
And ultimately what will decide wether it worked or not will mean winning the CL or league this season.
I really don’t know why you are so desperately trying to argue, Arteta/Arsenal hasn’t done well.
It is all in the numbers, get over it 😉
Im not arguing, just pointing out truths. You may argue, Fox may argue. I answer opinion.
@ Reggie:Arteta and Edu have lost the club tens and tens of millions,when it comes to players sales.now that’s a fact!
– Anders and Co trying to play semantics(because you used ‘wasting’ instead of “losing”)won’t change it.
I have a question for them”how many millions does one need to lose before it becomes a waste? 10M? 50M? 100M?
The reason I ask and want to know is because I actually know the amount lost by the club in players sales since MA became manager.
Si, i never used the word wasted and you are right, it is a loss. Totally different thing. It only old boy fox who tried to say, wrongly thst i had wrote wasted.
And it is the LOSS that is a problem.
@Reggie,my bad for saying that you used the word”waste” when you didn’t.
Si, i have no problem with your words, i know what you were on about.
You are wrong. Arteta and Edu have done very well in rebuilding a young and talented team, which is worth the money invested in them.
Could never have been done by keeping players, that couldn’t make us competitive for the PL again, let alone get us back into the CL.
Do you seriously believe our owners would accept huge losses overall? Of course not, they are seing the big picture, and it consists both of getting unwanted players out and getting the ones you wnat, in.
Yes Anders the squad is worth the value invested in it. But you said it. It has been invested in and now we need to see trophies.
saying hd has done a tremendous job in increasing the value is where the error lies bro….the players that significantly improved the value are not even arteta players and then again his own players came in for huge money and still retain their values or slightly higher…..so what the tremendous job here ….a good job I accept but tremendous? that’s on the investors and the ones responsible for players like saka,Smith Rowe, matineli, saliba,nkwtiah and few others
They have an Intrinsic formula for working out the transfer values. There is a link to it in the article if you want to know the details
But Pat, it is a guess. It is not a stand fast value.
@Ad Pat:” intrinsic formula”?
“Transfermakt doesn’t use algorithms.
Lintz(the founder ) says
he and his colleagues are proud of how accurate their ‘educated guesses ‘tend to be. They take it as vindication and validation of their “wisdom of the crowd” approach when a real-life player moves for a fee similar to his value on the site.”
Despite the player values, along with some other facts, being estimates, researchers from the Centre for Economic Performance have found that the “rumours” of player transfers are largely accurate.
I think it’s also important to look at individual players sold by each of these clubs. Look at the players sold or let go by Arsenal in the recent years – most of them fell into two categories : those that were past their best/prime(e.g. Ozil,Laca,Mustafi) and fringe players without much quality (Mari,Holding,Mavropanos,Sokratis,Bellerin). The quality players in their prime/with potential were Leno,Martinez,Xhaka,Iwobi,Balogun and Willock-with the exception of Martinez,I think they went for fair prices. In contrast,a team like City has sold quality players still in their prime(e.g. Jesus,Zinchenko,Laporte,Mahrez). City have also sold quite a few quality academy players for good money and got sell on fees for players like Sancho and Lavia I think.Maybe Arsenal can improve in the academy department- Chelsea have made a lot too from their academy. It’s the cash cow if managed well.
Another factor is long term strategy.A team like Brighton for instance,is a selling club-it makes sense they made that much. Arsenal was in a rebuilding phase and needed to start afresh. This may have necessitated cutting their losses with certain players if it meant creating room for new players in the squad. Mustafi is a good example. Seeing as he didn’t have any serious suitors, if ripping his contract meant having the defenders we currently have then it was well worth it from a footballing perspective.
Finally I think the Saudi factor should also be factored in. Chelsea were very lucky in this respect(Mendy,Kante,Koulibaly). In a world where Saudi football doesn’t happen,they wouldn’t have made the profits they made and would have struggled to move some of the players on.City too with Laporte and Mahrez. In a world where Saudi happened two or three seasons ago,we’d have made money out of the players whose contract were ripped. We didn’t have players with the kind of profile the Saudis targeted(past their prime,influential but good enough) so we didn’t benefit from that market.Liverpool made a lot from the sales of Henderson and Fabinho.In a hypothetical situation where Arsenal was willing to sell both Xhaka and Partey to Saudi,and they both were willing to join,we’d have made some good money for both.
Of the teams you mentioned,I think only United were/are in a similar situation to us and perharps the numbers being so close reflects that. Like us,they are rebuilding and didn’t benefit much from Saudi. The difference is,we seem to be ahead of them football-wise. You mention Spurs but half of it is nearly Harry Kane money. Spurs selling Kane would be like us selling Saka-something fans would consider unacceptable. Remove the Kane money and their income would be atrocious. I think they are worse than Arsenal in that regard just as in everything else.
This was meant to be a reply to Siamois
Onyango, you’ve made some very good points I give you that.especially,regarding the type of players sold etc..take Kane,the credits go to the club for getting as much for a 30 years old.as opposed to Arsenal who refused to sell players when we should have,like AMN for 20M or giving a huge contract to Auba….as for the Saudi,why couldn’t we sell them few players?also,all the players Chelsea sold to Saudi clubs were signed off after the 30th of June.this means that the money made will count for the following fiscal year and not this past one.
The fact that we have “similar” numbers as UTD, wouldn’t you agree that we could do much better on players sales?
Siamois I don’t think we could have done better regarding Saudi because there weren’t any of our players considered ‘surplus to requirements’ that they had interest in – that is Cedric,Pepe,Lokonga,Tavares. I assume Balogun and Tierney wouldn’t have wanted to join the Saudi Leaugue even if there was concrete interest,which there wasn’t as far as I’m aware. The Chelsea players were just of better quality compared to our fringe players.There was a brief rumour about Partey,but it didn’t grow legs. And yes I agree with you that we could do much better-I just feel like some of the complaints regarding sales have been over the top and without proper context. Something tells me if we win something big,our players,even the fringe players will be overrated and that will increase their value hence better sales. AMN should probably have been sold but at the time he was playing relatively well and considering his versatility,many thought he might have a future at Arsenal.
As for Auba,him signing was considered a no brainer at the time-he was scoring for fun. I remember fans eagerly awaiting for that. Nobody could anticipate the dip in form after that,and the indiscipline issues. In hindsight,maybe it wasn’t a good idea to hand him such a huge contract at that age,but at the time there were big clubs circling around him and the club probably didn’t want to lose him to our rivals which would have generated a lot of backlash from the fans.
Exactly the same scenario with Ozil Onyango.
Agree about players past their best/prime(e.g. Ozil,Laca,Mustafi).
But what about Pepe, Niles, Guindouzi, Holding, Chambers etc.
also Saudi is there for every club so why can’t Arsenal manage to sell them instead of ripping contracts.
Gunner,Saudi was not a factor until this season. As far as I’m aware,no contracts were ripped this time. No Saudi club was interested in Pepe to my knowledge. You can’t just force a player to join another club;there has to be interest from all parties involved.
The players you mention are all accounted for in my comment. I’m not doing all that again. If don’t get it,forget about it.
The Arteta knows it all always say: “The Arteta Out fans”, “You give up on Haverts After few games” etc.
I’ve never seen:
Arteta Out by anyone in the last 1 year+
Anyone say Haverts can’t come good,
Any fan here wish Arteta nor arsenal fail,
All I’ve seen people say is: are there ways “WE” could have done things better? And that’s what true lovers/fan should do (WANT THE BEST)
very good article AndersS
Another point you can add that all of his big money signings have been a success or still to be decided.
# Player Fee
1 Declan Rice €116.60m
2 Kai Havertz €75.00m
3 Ben White €58.50m
4 Gabriel Jesus €52.20m
5 Thomas Partey €50.00m
6 Jurrien Timber €40.00m
7 Martin Ødegaard €35.00m
8 Fábio Vieira €35.00m
9 Oleksandr Zinchenko €35.00m
10 Aaron Ramsdale €28.00m
11 Gabriel Magalhães €26.00m
12 Jakub Kiwior €25.00m
13 Leandro Trossard €24.00m
14 Takehiro Tomiyasu €18.60m
15 Albert Sambi Lokonga €17.50m
16 Jorginho €11.30m
17 Pablo Marí Loan fee:
€8.00m
18 Nuno Tavares €8.00m
19 Pablo Marí €6.00m
20 Matt Turner €5.90m
21 Marquinhos €3.50m
22 David Raya Loan fee:
€3.34m
23 Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson €2.00m
24 Martin Ødegaard Loan fee:
€2.00m
25 Auston Trusty €1.80m
These are Arteta/Edu biggest transfers, you’ll have to go to the 15th to see a failed signing.
In a world where Kalvin Philips, Lukaku, Keita, Sancho, antony have flopped under great coaches like Pep or Klopp it is a big accomplishment. Chelsea are proof that just being financially backed is not enough, they are still bad despite a net spent of nearly 900m.
Also most signing under 10m are mostly punts on promising players that might go big and like in every big clubs its a low cost investment that rarely pays dividends.
You guys are highlighting the positive (advantages), but is it really a crime to also mention the negatives (disadvantages)
Our worries is repeating the same mistakes of last seasons collapse preferential treatment of players etc. Benching Gabriel M., playing Haverts for 75mins against Man U etc.
We’ve won 3 and drawn 1, but a real accessment shows we’ve not been convincing in any despite having “2nd most valuable squad” this season
Give up mate they’ve mastered the art of covering their ears on anything they don’t want to hear. And with Pat on their side it will only get worse.
Favouritism is another unsubstantiated myth..
Good point, thank you
The bottom line is Anders, i really dont know how you can credit Arteta or Edu with Arsenals players being worth 100s of millions, when the CLUB has spent 100s of millions. Now if we had spent 200 million and the team was now worth 800 million, i could see where you are coming from. The value of the squad will be determined on how they perform this year. It will go up or come down. We know what will make it go up and we know what will make it come down. We all want it to go up because that would hopefully mean, something has been achieved on the pitch.
Look at the numbers in the article again.
Yes, we have spent hundreds of millions. But the point is, the money have been extremely well spent, compared to how our competitors have done in the same period.
The financial value of a player and thereby the whole squad is determined by a lot of factors, not only how they actually perform. The following aslo come into it:
Player’s age
Length of contract
Market situation in general
Homegrown or not?
Position (forwards are usually worth more)
I am sure there re several other factors as well.
Also look at the dictions in the article and you will see it’s only written to counter yesterday’s article.
“Arteta knows all” went into the blue after poor team selection and substitution cost us against Fulham and came back in full strength after lucky Man U win
The article was written and sent in, BEFORE Dan Smith’s article was pubished.
published, sorry
According to Transfermarkt under Arteta we have spent 671 Million. If we remove previous management t players the value of the squad is 727 Million. Makes one wonder what the fuss is all about. Isn’t this abuse of data to progress an agenda?
And according to Transfermarkt the value of Rice is now 90 million and Havertz 65 million. That is 36 million down from the fees we paid for them.
HH exactly,what’s the fuss all about? I think you’ll find that this article was a reaction to the articles that were done to discredit Arteta/Edu/Arsenal dealings in the transfer market. What is the fuss all about? (In reference to the initial articles that highligted the perceived failings in the transfer market). It goes both ways.
An interesting article and lots of interesting comments which have provided great debate with very mixed answers. I haven’t yet read Dan’s article mentioned by Anders btw.
I’ve not seen mention though of the following two points:
1 – On the clubs yearly balance sheet the value of a player is written down on a year on year basis. As an asset of the club therefore, a player’s value will be less than the previous year.
2 – The actual selling price of a player has nothing to do with what us, the media, or Transfermarkt think it should be, it’s whatever the buying club are willing to pay.
Regarding the question whether we have performed very well in this transfer window is on one hand purely hypothetical if answered by us, the fans, and the media and on the other hand, it can only be answered by the owner, in my opinion.
My personal opinion is that it’s been a mixed transfer window with our usual low selling prices of players or having basically paid them off and paying a little over the top for Rice and very much over the top for Havertz. Having said that, no one one can really answer the question after just a handful of games at the start of the season with no cup or CL games having been played, until the season is over. The above are my opinions and like any other comments, or the article, NOT facts,
Precisely GB
Your last sentence 👏
You can only sell your players for the best price offered
At various times in the last few years, I can’t recall any of our players leaving for pastures new for a fortune
I’m not in business and while I understand a lot of what has been written, I can only go by the bottom line. Pepe didn’t have a transfer value and nor did others who didn’t set the world on fire.
Arteta and Edu – who I definitely wasn’t sure about – have done an amazing job
I prefer not to concentrate on the crap that were unsaleable but to actually consider the quality of the personnel that make up the squad now
No contest in my book
Anders, as I praised Dan for his article yesterday, so I praise you for the work you have put into your article.
Two points I would ask :
1. Take out the value from Transfermarket those players who MA and Edu inherited such as our most valuable player, Saka and how does that changes the picture?
2. We have spent, reportedly, over £800,000,000 on new players since MA took over and, following on from Dan’s article recouped about £100,000,000 – therefore the valuation of the club should increase, unless we have overspent on players that is and their value is not worth the outlay made.
Point 1 then comes into play as those players are inherited from previous managers.
Now it doesn’t seem sensible to praise MA for getting rid of “deadwood” if one doesn’t acknowledge the other side of the coin.
What it all boils down to, is that Mr Kronkie is willing to rip up contracts and invest in players who MA wants – the manager now has a full house of players he wants (no exceptions) and I really couldn’t care less about any other club and its dealings.
You can’t say Saka was worth what he is today, when Arteta took over. His value has increased tremendously, and I would say it is of course his own achievement, but Arteta also has a hand in it, by developing him. Also in him making him stay at Aresenal on a long term contract, which increases his value.
In fact, Saka and Pepe, the favourite trumph used in the narrative, that Arteta is wasting money, are very much interrelated.
Their favourite position is the same. Arteta has prioritised Saka in front of Pepe, thus givng us the achievements we are seing, also financially.
Unfortunately, Pepe couldn’t even shine a little bit on loan, and eventually his worth has dropped to a point, where not even Saudi money could save us.
So what is the overall result. We have gained tremendously by playing and developing Saka, and keeping him. The cost may to a certain have been Pepe, but I for one, would say, we have gained overall.
The fact is, our squad was worth a bit more than half of what is today, when Arteta took over, and the investments into it has both increased the value and given us much better results.
Arteta has done a fantastic job in changing the whole squad into what we have, and Kroenke is getting his money worth.
You may not care about other clubs, but the fact also is, we have done much better under Arteta, than the other top 6 clubs have in the same time. In some of those clubs, you can talk about wasting money.
Exactly.
Arteta could have chosen the easiest way by playing the ‘superstar’ Pepe over some kid -Saka who was been used all over the pitch without a specific Position like AMN but he chose to trust the kid and now we have a superstar. That credit goes majorly to the coach for his trust and mentoring.
What about Martinelli, he was struggling with injuries when Arteta arrived after his first season.
Look at it this way:
Do you think Kroenke would be accepting huge losses on his assets?
Why would he?
Could it be, he knows, he is not loosing money, but in fact is gaining with Arteta?
Oh, and just for the record, my article was written and sent in, before Dan’s was published the day before.
Performed well except for buying Havertz! They did everything right last transfer window and this one except for freaking Havertz!
Brilliant article, well done Anders.
Just my thoughts Auba,laca,Ozil,mkhitariyan combined value would have been over 200m at their peak . But our nett gain was negative(Think Arsenal paid for Ozil &Auba). It’s not about player values,it’s about how we preserve/market/devalue our players which has happened in the last 3 years.
The result counts. I expect EPL title within 2 seasons. Whatever arguments worth nothing.
I currently support MA but I’m expecting title within 2 seasons.
By the end of 2 seasons, he already managing 6.5 years and will most likely spend about 1 billion on players.
If you spend so much money and win no title, it shows you are an average manager.
To everyone blaming Arteta for giving away players for free, have you asked yourself how many clubs wanted to pay for those players?
For those of you blaming Arteta for not playing some players as the reason their value dropped, have you asked yourself if the players maximized the chances given to them? Moreso, some are not reliable simply because they’re not injury prone.
I will say jugde Arteta if he let out the players he signed for good fee for free.